re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

LINK (twitter)

TIFWIW... Germany doing what I suggested last week the US should be doing -- doing some random sampling. This is a small n, and some issues with the study. But the results are... interesting.

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Study asked 600 households randomly chosen, 400 were responding and getting tested (1000 people). Current results are based on 500 people.

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14% of those were tested positive for antibodies liked to SARS-CoV2, another 2% were tested positive for a current infection by PCR tests. This would mean 15% of the population have already acquired immunity.

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For comparison: Only 5% had been tested positive any time since the likely outbreak on February 15. This would point to a significant undercount even in the most prominently affected region in Germany. Likewise, case fatality rate would be lower. They measured 0,37%.

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Now for some more speculation...

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Interesting side-point: They also think, that increased hygiene may lead to less severe outcomes as the initial virus load is reduced. We have seen similar reasoning especially for healthcare workers recently.

As far as I understood, the reasoning is that larger initial loads are giving the virus a head start against the immune system. Once it is in, it starts to replicate in the throat until it can jump into the lungs. If the immune systems kills it before that jump, nothing happens.

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14% of those were tested positive for antibodies liked to SARS-CoV2, another 2% were tested positive for a current infection by PCR tests. This would mean 15% of the population have already acquired immunity.

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This was done in one of the hardest hit areas of Germany. Some simple modeling would probably show that the actual infected total for Germany, as a whole, is well below 15%. At a minimum, this appears to pull the rug out form under the UK paper that estimated that over 50% of the UK had already been infected, as of a couple of weeks ago. Also, the Stanford paper on research that is trying to establish that herd immunity has already be acquired in California.

The paper is in German, so it's hard to tell if they were able to account for false positives in the antibody testing. Regardless, we need a lot more studies like this to get a better picture of what is truly going on in various parts of the world.

Somewhat related, South Korea has now identified 75 patients that have come back with positive tests after being cleared. They are calling these "reactivation" of the virus and not reinfection. It is unclear if this might be biphasic. More widespread antibody testing could determine if this is a real risk or an issue with how SK is conducting testing.

I am about to make an assertion that I base on nothing except my own observations watching the numbers from Italy, Spain, and NY

When you see daily deaths start to be around 10% of that days new cases, you are nearing or at the peak.

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SevenLinesofPine

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worst poster of the poliboard so far in 2020

yeah I know he is a parody, either intentionally or unintentionally, but he's not really funny like el gaucho

Looks like Germany, Italy, France, and Spain turned the new cases corner around day 30 after first 30 cases. Hopefully we see US and UK do the same.

If you don't want to look at them, don't click on the thread.

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it's going to take a little longer here because of our relative geographic size imo

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I disagree. If we are taking the data in that graph at face value (and we shouldn't, because unlike other nations the US is counting all deaths of any kind as China Flu deaths), even then the US curve is just about at the point where it's going to start going down. You can tell just by looking at it and comparing it to the other curves. Japan has half as many cases as we do on that graph and they are already starting to level off, too.

This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker

On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.

I was told our institution will have the Abbott 5 minute test in a week.