re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

What do you think it means?

I posted the death rate is falsely inflated. He posted the first graphic disputing my claim.

The second graph is the death rate.

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The amount of testing being done helps bring down the official death rate because people are being tested more frequently that have less severe cases of CV than in the early stage.

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Test less severe cases... death rate drops.

And that is what we were seeing. But as you can tell from the graph at some point for some reason the death rate started to increase again. (death RATE, not number of deaths)

This is not going to be the case when more minor cases are being added to the the list of people with CV.

So either you must believe that the virus has started to be more deadly despite effective treatments being brought online at an increasing rate OR the numbers are incorrect.

The Death rate should have never increased if more minor cases are being tested. So that increase is bogus.

Rate was approaching 1%. If it rises to 2% it is a legit assumption that half of that 2% figure is of falsely inflated deaths attributed to CV.

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So either you must believe that the virus has started to be more deadly despite effective treatments being brought online at an increasing rate OR the numbers are incorrect.

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You’re dumb.

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He has totally destroyed my assertion.

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Not yet.

If you go two weeks to the right from the trough of the CFR graph, you’ll find the likely peak.

Now I destroyed your argument.

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Not yet.

If you go two weeks to the right from the trough of the CFR graph, you’ll find the likely peak.

Now I destroyed your argument.

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No you haven't. You have proven you don't know what you are talking about.

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No you haven't. You have proven you don't know what you are talking about.

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And you just proved you don’t know what you’re talking about. Good talk.

None of that had anything to do with my point.

The lag from a positive test (or more accurately, from symptoms) to death is fourteen days. We are almost exactly two weeks from the trough of CFR, so we are likely seeing the peak of the published CFR. And the published CFR is only connected to the actual CFR by the degree to which we have/haven’t identified asymptomatic patients.

Explain to me how if we test more and more how that won't have the effect of temporarily driving the death rate down?

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Explain to me how if we test more and more how that won't have the effect of temporarily driving the death rate down?

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It would only drive down the CFR to the rate that we are capturing asymptomatic cases. So if we’re still only (mostly) testing symptomatic cases, it won’t have the effect of driving down the CFR. Because you’re still capturing the more serious cases only. So your testing is just keeping up with the spread of virus. Not finding people who wouldn’t have otherwise been tested.

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It would only drive down the CFR to the rate that we are capturing asymptomatic cases. So if we’re still only (mostly) testing symptomatic cases, it won’t have the effect of driving down the CFR. Because you’re still capturing the more serious cases only. So your testing is just keeping up with the spread of virus. Not finding people who wouldn’t have otherwise been tested.

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I see what you are saying there. And I do not disagree with how what you are pointing out will affect the numbers.

However, what I am saying still applies. I believe my wife and I both had CV. I don't know for sure because I was never tested. In the very very first days of this there was not test. Then there we limited test.

In the beginning most of the people tested were in ICU. That then expanded to those hospitalized. Then that expanded to those visiting doctors and then to some that just wanted to check. Over simplified I know but still true in general.

As has been pointed out the death rate of will lag behind those that are tested because it takes time to die. The USA has been increasing testing.

An increase in testing today will drive the rate down simply due to lag. More importantly in the grand scheme of things our increase in testing should also lead to an end result of a lower death rate because this increase in testing is picking up people with symptoms that were at one point turned away from testing because there symptoms were not severe enough to waste a test on them.

If you only test people on ventilators the death rate will be about 80%.

If you include people in icu that death rate will drop to something like 15%.

If you include people that are simply sent home unless it gets worse the death rate will be about 4%.

Theoretically if you include people that never go to the doctor but had it anyway like myself possible the number would go down even more. Obviously possible to include this group since they were never tested. But I add it to illustrate my point.

Point: If you test people that have less and less severe symptoms at an increasing rate the death rate will continue to drop.

I assert this is what has been going on with respect to testing and the death rate has not followed it logical course.