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Message
re: Trumps truth social post about Iran
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:22 pm to davyjones
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:22 pm to davyjones
quote:
Nobody put anything in those la-de-da terms, knowing full well that (1) there was a significant mine threat and (2) knowing it was about to be an active battlefield.
So did we have the capability to completely open the Strait akin to status quo ante and choose not to, or were we unable to do so?
Neither answer is good.
0
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:24 pm to jawnybnsc
quote:
We understand your theory. What you're not understanding is that your theory is busted. It's based on lots of false assumptions and on no real knowledge of what has been negotiated, or on the strategy for managing the situation from now forward.
I happen to agree with his theory, can you describe how it is "busted"? Logical facts please as to why his theory that we were 1) unable to open the strait which leads to 2) emboldening Iran and 3) strengthening China.
Exactly how is that theory busted?
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:25 pm to jawnybnsc
Since Iran shut down the strait, countries have been exploring other routes. If/once those countries find other ways they wil either no longer be getting oil from Iran, or at least cutting the amount.
Less partners for Iran means less people negotiating on their behalf for a deal... meaning less countries the US has to worry about getting in the way.
That weakens Iran, not strengthens them. Bad theory.
Russia is the biggest benefactor, with Brazil, the US, Venezuela, coming in close second to Iran shutting down the strait
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:25 pm to jawnybnsc
quote:
What you're not understanding is that your theory is busted.
Except nobody has articulated how
quote:
It's based on lots of false assumptions and on no real knowledge of what has been negotiated,
Well that's part of it being a prediction.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:26 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
Since Iran shut down the strait, countries have been exploring other routes. If/once those countries find other ways they wil either no longer be getting oil from Iran, or at least cutting the amount.
Less partners for Iran means less people negotiating on their behalf for a deal... meaning less countries the US has to worry about getting in the way.
That weakens Iran, not strengthens them. Bad theory.
China is all that Iran needs, really. And China owning Iran's oil removes their reliance on Western oil, Russian oil, and Western-aligned ME oil.
Isolating Iran like you propose just makes China get the oil cheaper.
This post was edited on 5/23/26 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:28 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
Since Iran shut down the strait, countries have been exploring other routes. If/once those countries find other ways they wil either no longer be getting oil from Iran, or at least cutting the amount.
Less partners for Iran means less people negotiating on their behalf for a deal... meaning less countries the US has to worry about getting in the way.
That weakens Iran, not strengthens them. Bad theory.
Russia is the biggest benefactor, with Brazil, the US, Venezuela, coming in close second to Iran shutting down the strait
Interesting counterpoint, I could definitely see that as a possibility. But, China buys 90% of Iran's oil, so it wouldn't hurt them too much.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:29 pm to Athis
quote:
What's the O/U in days when Iran breaks the deal? Can't trust those dirty bastards... And before anyone comes at me.. Of course I don't want war but they should have put their foot on the neck of Iran when this crap started.. Should have taken out as many of those turds as they could have...
I think this^^^ is the thoughts of the vast majority of MAGA/America First types.
I also think a vast majority of MAGA/America First types questioned the timing of Trump's decision to attack Iran, however once the decision was made and the military operation commenced there was only one outcome that would be viewed as a reasonable victory by MAGA/America First......toppling of the Islamic Regime and the absolute banning of any further nuclear weapons ambitions or the development of long range missiles by Iran
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:35 pm to lsuguy84
quote:
lsuguy84
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
I don't think so.
China imports about 11.5 million barrels of oil per day. Iran produces just under 3 million per day.
China imports about 11.5 million barrels of oil per day. Iran produces just under 3 million per day.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:40 pm to DD_Rolltide
13% of Chinas oil is imported from Iran. They aren't a major chess piece for China.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:53 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
13% of Chinas oil is imported from Iran. They aren't a major chess piece for China.
13% isn't insignificant though. It doesn't have to be a majority to be of consequence. Particularly with Venezuelan oil off the table
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:54 pm to Powerman
I also said China is all that Iran needs, not Iran is all that China needs.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:02 pm to PaperTiger
quote:
Since Iran shut down the strait, countries have been exploring other routes. If/once those countries find other ways they wil either no longer be getting oil from Iran, or at least cutting the amount.
You do realize that it’s not just Iranian oil that moves through the Strait, right?
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:23 pm to Mo Jeaux
Yes i realize that.
SA has a pipeline that can handle 7 million barrels per day UAE has one pipeline and currently building another. Iraq has one going to Turkey. All of these 100% bypass the SOH.
If Iran wants to play games, these major oil exporters above have alternate options. You don't think Kuwait and Oman wouldn't do the same?
All Iran does by holding the SOH
hostage is weaken them, not strengthen
SA has a pipeline that can handle 7 million barrels per day UAE has one pipeline and currently building another. Iraq has one going to Turkey. All of these 100% bypass the SOH.
If Iran wants to play games, these major oil exporters above have alternate options. You don't think Kuwait and Oman wouldn't do the same?
All Iran does by holding the SOH
hostage is weaken them, not strengthen
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:32 pm to DeBoar
I just finished the 14 pages of the usual poo flinging with the addition of one particularly emotional poster. Nobody knows the final aspects and details of this "Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE". The final aspects and details of which are still being worked on. However, most posters already know how this is a failure. Just a few posters have the sense to wait until the deal is published before commenting.
I don't know why I enjoy reading this bull shite.
BTW, will it still be a failure if Israel signs on in agreement? If they don't?
I don't know why I enjoy reading this bull shite.
BTW, will it still be a failure if Israel signs on in agreement? If they don't?
This post was edited on 5/23/26 at 8:48 pm
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:53 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
I hope there are many Ws in this agreement
Hope is not a strategy. Hope is for the church.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:55 pm to Islander
quote:
Hope is not a strategy. Hope is for the church.
Do you think the poster you are responding to is one of the “strategists” here?
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:56 pm to Powerman
China has around 45 other partners they could increase oil production with.
SA and Iraq are the major players for China and i believe it's bc they have pipelines that bypass the SOH. I still believe Iran isnt that major of a player for China, although you are right with Venezuela is off the table with their shadow fleets and China will have to get more oil from somewhere. But it won't be Iran. They don't produce enough to make up the shortfall.
SA and Iraq are the major players for China and i believe it's bc they have pipelines that bypass the SOH. I still believe Iran isnt that major of a player for China, although you are right with Venezuela is off the table with their shadow fleets and China will have to get more oil from somewhere. But it won't be Iran. They don't produce enough to make up the shortfall.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 9:01 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
They weren’t consulted beforehand, weren’t on board with it when it started and, at least publicly were told “we got this, don’t worry,”
True
quote:
Europe is so weak, look how they can’t do anything
This is also true.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 9:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Isolating Iran like you propose just makes China get the oil cheaper.
Exactly. That’s a terrible idea.
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