- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Trump's Electoral College path of least resistance
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:00 am
Despite all the bad polling, Trump has a path to reelection that doesn't involve any major state upsets, and only requires two minor upsets. That would be PA, where he has a 38% chance to win according to betting markets, and Arizona (37%).
If you give him PA, AZ, + all the states he's favored in, which includes NC (52%), FL (53%), ME-2 (59%), IA (63%), GA (65%), OH (67%), TX (74%), etc, you get this map:
(All %s used above are from predictit betting market as of 9/22 at 8am CT)
If you give him PA, AZ, + all the states he's favored in, which includes NC (52%), FL (53%), ME-2 (59%), IA (63%), GA (65%), OH (67%), TX (74%), etc, you get this map:
(All %s used above are from predictit betting market as of 9/22 at 8am CT)
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 8:52 am
15
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:01 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
path of least resistance
Taking 47 states does that
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:03 am to RidiculousHype
PA will go Red unless they harvest about 200% voter turnout in Philly.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:05 am to waiting4saturday
They can try.
Was it Pennsylvania or another state like Wiscy that just ruled that all mail in ballots must be sent in within the provided security envelopes?
If it was PA, then the ballot box stuffing got harder to pull off.
Was it Pennsylvania or another state like Wiscy that just ruled that all mail in ballots must be sent in within the provided security envelopes?
If it was PA, then the ballot box stuffing got harder to pull off.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:06 am to RidiculousHype
MN, WI, MI
He’s taking one of those three easily
He’s taking one of those three easily
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:10 am to teke184
It was PA
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:11 am to jcaz
quote:
MN, WI, MI
He’s taking one of those three easily
Six months ago I'd have said he was favored in all 3. But now, even conservative pollsters are saying things look good for Biden in WI and MI. Trump's best shot of the 3 may be MN.
But, if Trump wins PA + AZ + all the states he's favored in, he wouldn't need any of the 3.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:11 am to TigerHoosier
We just get a disturbance in the force, as if millions of illegitimate votes cried out and were silenced all at once.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:19 am to RidiculousHype
Before yesterday I felt better about Trump taking Minnesota and Wisconsin than I did about him taking Pennsylvania. But then I saw the advantage that the GOP has gained in Pennsylvania in registered Republicans over Democrats since 2016 posted by anc yesterday. There is close to a net 200k advantage for the GOP in PA since 2016 for registered voters. I feel much better about PA today.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:24 am to RidiculousHype
Bold prediction:
Biden only wins CA & NY
Biden only wins CA & NY
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:24 am to RidiculousHype
You snuck Ohio in there, though.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:25 am to RidiculousHype
I really do not see Trump doing worse (or biden doing better than Hillary)than what happened in 2016. In fact I think Trump will pick up a deep blue state or two.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:26 am to RidiculousHype
Nevada would be a good gamble on Predictit.
Trump get out the vote campaign is going hard there, and he lost to Hillary by less than 3%
Trump get out the vote campaign is going hard there, and he lost to Hillary by less than 3%
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:27 am to SlickRick55
Is he favored in Ohio? I guess it depends on where you look, because I feel good about Ohio.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:28 am to RidiculousHype
quote:
Six months ago I'd have said he was favored in all 3. But now, even conservative pollsters are saying things look good for Biden in WI and MI.
Trump is winning Michigan. People there were PUMPED to vote for him at the beginning of August, and with everything going on, no way that enthusiasm has decreased.
Biden has NO ground game in Michigan. There are literally ZERO Biden workers/volunteers canvassing around Michigan and knocking on doors.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 9:11 am
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:29 am to RidiculousHype
FWIW, MN, WI, and MI are going Trump again, without a doubt. AZ may not, due to the electioneering going on with the dems over there. And Trump is getting all of NE's electoral votes.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:29 am to RidiculousHype
If Trump wins NE2 he doesn’t even need Arizona. But that’s a bit gamble because that’s going to be a tight race in Omaha with the dumbass white educated vote there. He’d have 269 and win the election through the house delegations.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:29 am to LSUSkip
quote:
Is he favored in Ohio?
yes, in fact, Ohio is not even a swing state this go round
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:34 am to RidiculousHype
Arizona will be a tough pull. The mass exodus to there from the people leaving the Communist Republic of California is turning Arizona blue quickly.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:36 am to GumboPot
quote:
Before yesterday I felt better about Trump taking Minnesota and Wisconsin than I did about him taking Pennsylvania. But then I saw the advantage that the GOP has gained in Pennsylvania in registered Republicans over Democrats since 2016 posted by anc yesterday. There is close to a net 200k advantage for the GOP in PA since 2016 for registered voters. I feel much better about PA today.
Same. PA has been trending R for the past several election cycles. It will be the next OH.
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News