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re: Trafalgar State Polls: Michigan - Trump +2 | Florida - Trump +3 | Arizona - Trump +3

Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:11 pm to
Posted by OccamsStubble
Member since Aug 2019
4968 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:11 pm to
quote:


If they are right and everyone else is wrong, sweet Jesus, they will own the polling world.


If you accept the premise that polls are conducted to convey current sentiment, then true. You’d be a fool to believe that polls are conducted to convey current sentiment. They’re conducted to express the wishes of those paying for the polls.
Posted by td01241
Savannah
Member since Nov 2012
22844 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:14 pm to
The issue with almost all polls outside of Trafalgar if you look into it is the sampling. They not only over sample dems they pull some shite where the Rs they sample get bullshite questions they trap them into “staying at home” category. Add that to that fact most people are afraid to admit voting for Trump because at best they’ll be fired or worst murdered and you have Joe “callin it a lid 9 days before election Biden” up 15 nationwide. It’s despicable and can only be called one thing, voter suppression.
Posted by HubbaBubba
F_uck Joe Biden, TX
Member since Oct 2010
45726 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:35 pm to
Wisconsin?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18907 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:38 pm to
There were some really odd cross tabs from the Trafalgar MI poll...

Had Trump and Biden both losing about 30% of their own party. Just weird.

Also Trump was winning Independents by around THIRTY percent....
Posted by MickeyLikesDags21
Member since Apr 2019
6640 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:39 pm to
quote:

Can you please provide the link, I'd like to see it and then possibly reconsider my view of their polls? This is very unacceptable and I need to see it to validate & judge context.


Nah, you just have to trust this fine upstanding citizen.
Posted by GoldenGuy
Member since Oct 2015
10870 posts
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:31 pm to
quote:

People may have issues with Trafalgar (unfounded, IMO), but +13 makes zero sense.



I like how this post has exactly 13 upvotes.
Posted by HurricaneTiger
Coral Gables, FL
Member since Jan 2014
3028 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:39 am to
quote:

Also Trump was winning Independents by around THIRTY percent....

Excuse me!?! That is quite the statement. He only won them by 4% last time.
Posted by Big4SALTbro
Member since Jun 2019
14870 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:09 am to
But Fox News is running around claiming ha is a dead heat and Trump down in Texas lol
Posted by Tiger985
Member since Nov 2006
6462 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:12 am to
Went back and looked at the election day polls for the Florida governor race in 2018.

Most had Desantis down 3-7 points. Average was about 5 and this was among Nate Bronze's highly rated pollsters.

Trafalgar was just about alone in calling the close Desantis victory.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
24768 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
FL: Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71% D 13.6%

Rs are now outperforming 2016 in this senior county by 3 points.
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:26 am to
quote:

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
FL: Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71% D 13.6%



Who is this guy?
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
24768 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:30 am to
Some guy on twitter that has been keeping up with the results.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141092 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Who is this guy?

looks to be a history professor who has at least 1 NYT Best Seller book and seems very MAGA
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:31 am to
Is he reputable? I don't twitter.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115711 posts
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:40 am to
If Trump wins Michigan and Florida I just cannot see a viable scenario where he loses.
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