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re: Trafalgar State Polls: Michigan - Trump +2 | Florida - Trump +3 | Arizona - Trump +3
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:11 pm to Scruffy
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:11 pm to Scruffy
quote:
If they are right and everyone else is wrong, sweet Jesus, they will own the polling world.
If you accept the premise that polls are conducted to convey current sentiment, then true. You’d be a fool to believe that polls are conducted to convey current sentiment. They’re conducted to express the wishes of those paying for the polls.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:14 pm to OccamsStubble
The issue with almost all polls outside of Trafalgar if you look into it is the sampling. They not only over sample dems they pull some shite where the Rs they sample get bullshite questions they trap them into “staying at home” category. Add that to that fact most people are afraid to admit voting for Trump because at best they’ll be fired or worst murdered and you have Joe “callin it a lid 9 days before election Biden” up 15 nationwide. It’s despicable and can only be called one thing, voter suppression.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:38 pm to HubbaBubba
There were some really odd cross tabs from the Trafalgar MI poll...
Had Trump and Biden both losing about 30% of their own party. Just weird.
Also Trump was winning Independents by around THIRTY percent....
Had Trump and Biden both losing about 30% of their own party. Just weird.
Also Trump was winning Independents by around THIRTY percent....
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:39 pm to Rsande63
quote:
Can you please provide the link, I'd like to see it and then possibly reconsider my view of their polls? This is very unacceptable and I need to see it to validate & judge context.
Nah, you just have to trust this fine upstanding citizen.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:31 pm to Scruffy
quote:
People may have issues with Trafalgar (unfounded, IMO), but +13 makes zero sense.
I like how this post has exactly 13 upvotes.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 9:39 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Also Trump was winning Independents by around THIRTY percent....
Excuse me!?! That is quite the statement. He only won them by 4% last time.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:09 am to joshnorris14
But Fox News is running around claiming ha is a dead heat and Trump down in Texas lol
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:12 am to joshnorris14
Went back and looked at the election day polls for the Florida governor race in 2018.
Most had Desantis down 3-7 points. Average was about 5 and this was among Nate Bronze's highly rated pollsters.
Trafalgar was just about alone in calling the close Desantis victory.
Most had Desantis down 3-7 points. Average was about 5 and this was among Nate Bronze's highly rated pollsters.
Trafalgar was just about alone in calling the close Desantis victory.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:23 am to Tiger985
quote:
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
FL: Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71% D 13.6%
Rs are now outperforming 2016 in this senior county by 3 points.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:26 am to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
FL: Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71% D 13.6%
Who is this guy?
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:30 am to Janky
Some guy on twitter that has been keeping up with the results.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart
https://mobile.twitter.com/LarrySchweikart
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:30 am to Janky
quote:
Who is this guy?
looks to be a history professor who has at least 1 NYT Best Seller book and seems very MAGA
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:31 am to rt3
Is he reputable? I don't twitter.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:40 am to joshnorris14
If Trump wins Michigan and Florida I just cannot see a viable scenario where he loses.
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