re: The Official Thread: Russia invades Ukraine

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The negatives for capturing and holding Kiev far out weighed the pros and he either realized this or it was part of a diversion scheme. It’s called adjustments

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Kind of like Lee at Gettysburg, Hitler at Stalingrad, or McArthur at the Yalu River!

The Russians tried something and it just didn’t work.

The Russians have taken Rubezhnoye, immediately north of Severodonetsk.

They’ve also advanced on Lyman, to the north east of Sloviansk.


There have been uncredited reports that the Ukrainians are pulling out of Severodonetsk. They may get mauled by Russian artillery and tactical air in the process, but the Ukrainians will be surrounded and destroyed if they don’t get out. Retreating is the best option even if it’s expensive.

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It appears that Russia is finally having a good day.
Let’s see if this starts a trend.

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Based on what? Russia is on the clock, they need to take territory BEFORE western artillery arrives. The Netherlands just provided Ukraine with elite mobile artillery.

In the past, equipment is typically near the front within 24-48 hours of an 'announcement' from a foreign government.

I've seen a few telegraph/twitter reports that the Russian friendly Donetsk forces are falling apart. A complete collapse could come within a few days, from what I've seen.

In fairness, I also saw that Kherson was "two weeks" from liberation about... IDK, a month ago?

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Based on what? Russia is on the clock, they need to take territory BEFORE western artillery arrives. The Netherlands just provided Ukraine with elite mobile artillery.

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NATO isn’t providing enough equipment to replace Ukrainian losses.

The Ukrainians will also have trouble integrating and using these new weapon systems. It will stress their supply chain, imagine operating three different kinds of self propelled guns simultaneously, one, you need unique spares for all three, and then the Ukrainians will need to equip and train their forces to maintain them.


Western reports have spoken some about timelines. And suggested that Putin wants to declare victory by May 9th. The original Russian plan failed, but since they’ve changed strategy, I see no evidence that they’re rushing. Or that they’re pressured by time.

Russia is in a position to grind the Ukrainians down with their substantial firepower advantage.

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Russia is in a position to grind the Ukrainians down with their substantial firepower advantage.

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That is certainly conventional wisdom; however, for 7 or 8 weeks now little has been accomplished towards that end. It’s easier said than done.

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Lima Whiskey

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Aren't you the veteran who said that he wished Putin was President of the USA instead of Russia?

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NATO isn’t providing enough equipment to replace Ukrainian losses.

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NATO might not be able replacing equipment, but Russia is. Ukraine has lost 25 units of self-propelled artillery. However, they have captured 39 units of self-propelled artillery from Russia. Ukraine has lost 131 tanks but they have captured 211 tanks from Russia.

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The Ukrainians will also have trouble integrating and using these new weapon systems. It will stress their supply chain, imagine operating three different kinds of self propelled guns simultaneously, one, you need unique spares for all three, and then the Ukrainians will need to equip and train their forces to maintain them.

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Those are valid points. However, the Ukies are creative people and I am sure the equipment that Russia is supplying Ukraine will keep them well supplied until they can integrate the NATO equipment into their army.

Lavrov got in some shots in an interview.

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In February 2014, the European Union helped negotiate a deal between the President and the opposition. Next morning, the signatures of the European Union representatives – France, Germany and Poland – were absolutely ignored by the opposition, who staged a coup and declared that they are creating a “government of the winners,” that they will cancel the special status of the Russian language. They threatened to throw ethnic Russians out of Crimea, they sent armed groups to storm the Crimean parliament. That is how the war started. The Crimeans said: “We don’t want to have anything [to do] with you, leave us alone.” As a I said, there was a threat from armed groups. The eastern areas of Ukraine said: “Guys, we do not support your coup, leave us alone.” They never attacked the rest of Ukraine. The putschists attacked them, having called them terrorists. They called them terrorists for eight long years.

We managed to stop this bloodshed in February 2015 – the so-called Minsk Agreements were signed, providing Eastern Ukraine with some special status, language, the right to have some local police, special economic relations with the adjacent Russian regions. It was basically the same as [the agreement] the European Union negotiated for the north of Kosovo where Serbs live. In both cases, the European Union failed totally to deliver on what was guaranteed by the signatures of its members. For eight long years, the respective governments of Ukraine and Presidents of Ukraine were saying, blatantly and publicly, that they were not going to implement the Minsk agreements, that they will move to Plan B. They continued to shell the territories of these [self-] proclaimed republics during all these years. We warned the Europeans, the Americans, and Ukraine that they are ignoring something which was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. To no avail.

People do not want to go back into this history because they prefer to take events on their immediate merit, but these particular events are rooted in the desire of the United States and what we call the collective West, to rule, to dominate the world and just show everybody that there would be no multipolarity. It would be only unipolarity.

And that they can declare Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia, located tens of thousands of miles from the United States, threats to their security, and can do whatever they please there, levelling cities, like they did with Mosul in Iraq, and Raqqa in Syria. Russia has been warning all its colleagues that just on our borders you have been creating a springboard against us: you have been pumping arms into Ukraine, you have been totally ignoring the legislation of Ukraine, which prohibited, completely prohibited the Russian language, you have been encouraging neo-Nazi ideologies and practices. The neo-Nazi battalions were very much active against the territories which proclaimed themselves independent and who were promised special status. It’s inside Ukraine.

It was all linked with Ukraine becoming NATO’s springboard, and NATO expansion. They were saying that Ukraine will be in NATO. Nobody can stop Ukraine if it so wishes. Then President Zelensky said that he might think about coming back to possess nuclear weapons. In November last year, my President suggested to the United States and to NATO to sit down, to cool off, and to discuss how we can agree on security guarantees without NATO’s further eastward expansion. They refused. In the process, the Ukrainian army radically intensified the shelling of those republics in violation of all the ceasefire agreements. We didn’t have any other choice but to recognise them, to sign mutual assistance treaties with them, and, in response to their request, to send our troops as part of special operation to protect their lives.

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Question: President Zelensky said that Russia plans to use tactical nuclear weapons.

Sergey Lavrov: He says many things. Depends on what he drinks and what he smokes. He says many things.

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LINK

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The Russians tried something and it just didn’t work.

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Putin got away with what he wanted in Georgia and Crimea. He put his foot in the Ukraine honey bucket though.

Stalin in Moscow rounded up 5 to 6 million Ukrainians and shipped them off to "exile" never to be seen again. He then starved another 5 to 6 million to death while he exported grain for cash. That all took place well within family generational memory.

Ukrainians have the will to fight.

Haven’t followed the past week or so but let me get this straight. So Biden is now sending Ukraine more money and heavy fighting vehicles. So when Russia blows all of this equipment up do we just keep sending them more shite every two weeks with another $150 mil? Like when does it end?