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Message
re: The MBA says the housing shortage is over
Posted on 8/26/26 at 9:42 am to ShrimperDan
Posted on 8/26/26 at 9:42 am to ShrimperDan
quote:
it really killed some projects for us,
Yea I get that and heard it from a few people but that was more so that the Mexicans were scared to leave their house. Nothing really to do with pricing. At least from what I saw.
Get a bid from an American-born licensed painter or sheetrock guy, and a Mexican's pricing is going to be basically in line and they aren't paying taxes on it. They are making a killing because people still assume they are the cheapest. They aren't anymore.
0
Posted on 8/26/26 at 9:43 am to aubie101
Imagine a real estate industry where instead of investing companies buying farmland with credit and building 15 shitboxes per acre with illegal labor to sell to Indians, people in the community bought run down houses and fixed them up with local labor and rented them/sold them to nice families and people starting out
The “housing shortage” is caused by decades of government policy (cheap credit, section 8 etc) causing 1/3 of the housing stock in the country to be locked up in ghettos
The “housing shortage” is caused by decades of government policy (cheap credit, section 8 etc) causing 1/3 of the housing stock in the country to be locked up in ghettos
Posted on 8/26/26 at 9:43 am to stout
While looking at real estate in Florida, most listings are on the market for long periods and most are showing price drops.
I wonder how long the price drop phenomenon will last.
I wonder how long the price drop phenomenon will last.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 10:05 am to StansberryRules
Home prices around me have essentially been flat for four years. I get a monthly Redfin report and can track it back five + years. In the last four years it has risen a total of 5.1% in estimated value. But, between May 2021 and May 2022, it had risen in value by 37.9%
If you look at that as an investment, over five years that's an annualized compounded return of 7.70%. I would accept that for savings, except that by the time you pull out the interest, taxes, insurance, upkeep and expenses of maintaining and improving it, not including principal costs, that comes down to the investment effectively grew at about 4.97% annually, compounded, over the full five years. That's pretty meh for an investment. And that's why many of these homes were purchased. As investments. They saw rapidly rising prices. Some people were buying multiple homes and reselling within six months. Investment groups were purchasing homes, and leasing out at high rates or selling at high profits.
That's over.
In some areas of far north Dallas, north of Frisco, homes in the Prosper and Celina areas have been overbuilt. People there, many who purchased homes when rates were low, people were offering bids at $25k-$50k over asking price and due to Covid were WFH. Life was good. Now, many are upside down and desperate to get out of the daily drive back to the office, but can't sell their homes without incurring a huge financial loss. Sucks to be them.
If you look at that as an investment, over five years that's an annualized compounded return of 7.70%. I would accept that for savings, except that by the time you pull out the interest, taxes, insurance, upkeep and expenses of maintaining and improving it, not including principal costs, that comes down to the investment effectively grew at about 4.97% annually, compounded, over the full five years. That's pretty meh for an investment. And that's why many of these homes were purchased. As investments. They saw rapidly rising prices. Some people were buying multiple homes and reselling within six months. Investment groups were purchasing homes, and leasing out at high rates or selling at high profits.
That's over.
In some areas of far north Dallas, north of Frisco, homes in the Prosper and Celina areas have been overbuilt. People there, many who purchased homes when rates were low, people were offering bids at $25k-$50k over asking price and due to Covid were WFH. Life was good. Now, many are upside down and desperate to get out of the daily drive back to the office, but can't sell their homes without incurring a huge financial loss. Sucks to be them.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 10:08 am to el Gaucho
quote:
Imagine a real estate industry where instead of investing companies buying farmland with credit and building 15 shitboxes per acre with illegal labor to sell to Indians, people in the community bought run down houses and fixed them up with local labor and rented them/sold them to nice families and people starting out
The “housing shortage” is caused by decades of government policy (cheap credit, section 8 etc) causing 1/3 of the housing stock in the country to be locked up in ghettos
I agree, but the fact is the system will be protected because the risk is to big to fail. They have to keep the charade up because the economy is built upon it. They can restrict buyers and I would agree but they need to keep the values up.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 10:23 am to stout
I'm not worried about housing. I'm worried about demographics. The boomers were the last generation of large families. Gen-X and Millennials aren't having enough kids. What you'll be left with will not be good stewards of all this real estate.
It's only made worse by the fact that it seems so many Gen-Zers are happy living in a closet.
It's only made worse by the fact that it seems so many Gen-Zers are happy living in a closet.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 10:27 am to stout
quote:
FYI...this is vastly overblown now. It used to be a real thing but ask anyone in the construction field and they will tell you that the days of cheap Mexicans ended long ago. Mexicans demand as much or more as anyone else.
The only savings is on administrative costs. Employment taxes, workers' comp, etc but then you run the risk of Uncle Sam nailing you for not only employing illegals but also fraud and evasion.
Your average homeowner can still find a cheap Mexicans to do small remodel projects. But the ones doing work for actual contractors are not significantly cheaper.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 12:45 pm to lsu777
quote:
nobody gives a frick....can you just hurry already, your gen has fricked the country enough. 40 years in power and nothing but frick ups
No, I'm going to live to 110 just to suck up the money you pay for my Social Security and Medicare. Quit fricking off on the internet and get back to work
Posted on 8/26/26 at 12:51 pm to stout
quote:
people aren't having kids
Friendly reminder to become a Christian, get married, have kids. Preferably in that order. But at this point, I’ll take what I can get.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 1:17 pm to aubie101
Cool, so flood the country with illegals so you can make more money off of rent?
Posted on 8/26/26 at 1:37 pm to StansberryRules
quote:
Only good if housing material prices also drop.
That's not happening.
This is a huge part of it.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 1:41 pm to dickkellog
quote:
typical blank profile you do nothing,you live nowhere, he11 son you don't even have a favorite team.
They do have 5,000+ posts you could read if you wanted to get to know them
Posted on 8/26/26 at 2:39 pm to Diamondawg
quote:
My oldest child is 44.
My only child is 50 and he loves the housing shortage. He rents condos.
Posted on 8/26/26 at 2:44 pm to dickkellog
quote:
that depends on where you live here in little rock the median price for a home is 279k and inventory is good.
you must live in average americaville.
typical blank profile you do nothing,you live nowhere, he11 son you don't even have a favorite team
Do you ever post while you are sober?
Better question
Are you ever sober?
Posted on 8/26/26 at 3:00 pm to aubie101
quote:
but the overall cost of everything has killed me and my partners.
You Mormon?
Just call 'em wives or sister wives if you are one of them
Posted on 8/26/26 at 11:50 pm to stout
You can’t give away a nice house in mobile rn. If it over 800k it’s not selling
Posted on 8/27/26 at 7:00 am to VOR
quote:
Blaming housing costs on immigration
defies logic and mathematics…
More people come in, more people need homes. That's the demand side.
Posted on 8/27/26 at 7:06 am to stout
quote:
FYI...this is vastly overblown now. It used to be a real thing but ask anyone in the construction field and they will tell you that the days of cheap Mexicans ended long ago. Mexicans demand as much or more as anyone else.
The only savings is on administrative costs. Employment taxes, workers' comp, etc but then you run the risk of Uncle Sam nailing you for not only employing illegals but also fraud and evasion.
Yeap people would rather pay a Mexican than a drugged out millennial or everything is racist black person.
If you don't pay them, they will just go somewhere else and get paid.
Plus, women refuse to do these jobs. So you have a huge portion of the population that's just unemployable for this type of work.
This post was edited on 8/27/26 at 7:09 am
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