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Started By
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The Dems are in serious trouble with the 2020 electoral Map
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:00 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:00 am
Let's talk about the 2018 Midterms. Specifically Florida.
- Florida elected a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator in what was "supposed" to be a wave election for Democrats. This bodes terribly for their chances of flipping Florida Blue in 2020. If Trump gets Florida again, he will in all likelihood be in a position where he only needs one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan to reach the 2020 threshold. (That's assuming he wins Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Arizona again, which seems probable given his extreme favorability ratings in the Republican party poll #'s and National favorability ratings in the poll #'s)
So, with Florida and the states mentioned above, he's at 260 with only 10 more needed. Any one of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania would put him over the threshold of 270.
Also, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota were all close in 2016 but went blue. Any one of the states could potentially be flipped in 2020.
- Florida elected a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator in what was "supposed" to be a wave election for Democrats. This bodes terribly for their chances of flipping Florida Blue in 2020. If Trump gets Florida again, he will in all likelihood be in a position where he only needs one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Michigan to reach the 2020 threshold. (That's assuming he wins Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and Arizona again, which seems probable given his extreme favorability ratings in the Republican party poll #'s and National favorability ratings in the poll #'s)
So, with Florida and the states mentioned above, he's at 260 with only 10 more needed. Any one of Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania would put him over the threshold of 270.
Also, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota were all close in 2016 but went blue. Any one of the states could potentially be flipped in 2020.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 9:04 am
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Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:03 am to Stidham8
WI's new Democrat governor is trying to make us East California which plays well for Trump's chances here.
A lot of people are already pissed with this clown only 5 months in.
A lot of people are already pissed with this clown only 5 months in.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:04 am to Stidham8
Poll out yesterday had Biden leading Trump in AZ by 5. Nothing is certain at this stage.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:04 am to Stidham8
But but but who gets the pop vote??
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:07 am to TOSOV
The democrats will win the popular vote again.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:07 am to Jon Ham
There was a TX poll last week that had Biden +1 over Trump. I’m am not sure how the Dems are in “serious trouble” on this one. They win if they carry PA, WI, and MI which were all states that they did very well in during the midterms.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 9:14 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:08 am to IrishTiger89
quote:
There was a TX poll last week that had Biden +1 over Trump
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:08 am to Stidham8
Never underestimate the ability for the American people to vote against their own best self-interest. They did it in the midterms.
All of his incredible accomplishments vs "his Tweets are mean"... and America went with "his Tweets are mean".
I felt in my gut that the 2016 election was the lynch-pin on whether America survived or went into serious decline. That was based solely on the type of villain Clinton was.
But now seeing the level of utter corruption that exists in the IRS, DOJ, FBI, and Judicial Courts... we are literally in the fight for our lives. It's the America I knew or a shadow government where your vote is utterly meaningless and being Conservative could be all it takes to be on the wrong side of the law.
God gave us Donald J. Trump. I would never had said anything so 'crazy' two years ago. Knowing what we know now, I'm convinced.
All of his incredible accomplishments vs "his Tweets are mean"... and America went with "his Tweets are mean".
I felt in my gut that the 2016 election was the lynch-pin on whether America survived or went into serious decline. That was based solely on the type of villain Clinton was.
But now seeing the level of utter corruption that exists in the IRS, DOJ, FBI, and Judicial Courts... we are literally in the fight for our lives. It's the America I knew or a shadow government where your vote is utterly meaningless and being Conservative could be all it takes to be on the wrong side of the law.
God gave us Donald J. Trump. I would never had said anything so 'crazy' two years ago. Knowing what we know now, I'm convinced.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:09 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Poll out yesterday had Biden leading Trump in AZ by 5. Nothing is certain at this stage.
The sample size was 600 completed surveys, with an MoE of ± 4%
Highly accurate stuff there.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:10 am to Stidham8
I'm not a political junkie by any means, but Arizona and New Mexico have always seemed homogeneous to me and I'm always surprised that Arizona usually goes R and New Mexico usually goes D in the last couple of decades. Is it simply a greater Hispanic voting population in NM or something else?
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:10 am to BuckyCheese
quote:
WI's new Democrat governor is trying to make us East California which plays well for Trump's chances here.
A lot of people are already pissed with this clown only 5 months in.
they just can't help themselves
DEMs now see any victory in a non-super blue area as some mandate to go completely bonkers to the left
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:10 am to Jon Ham
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 9:46 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:11 am to AustinTigr
quote:
Never underestimate the ability for the American people to vote against their own best self-interest. They did it in the midterms.
All of his incredible accomplishments vs "his Tweets are mean"... and America went with "his Tweets are mean".
I felt in my gut that the 2016 election was the lynch-pin on whether America survived or went into serious decline. That was based solely on the type of villain Clinton was.
But now seeing the level of utter corruption that exists in the IRS, DOJ, FBI, and Judicial Courts... we are literally in the fight for our lives. It's the America I knew or a shadow government where your vote is utterly meaningless and being Conservative could be all it takes to be on the wrong side of the law.
God gave us Donald J. Trump. I would never had said anything so 'crazy' two years ago. Knowing what we know now, I'm convinced.
Presedential elections are state-wide elections, not individual districts. The Republicans picked up Senate seats in 2018. Trump's favorability remains very high, the economy is doing great, and it doesn't look like the Democrats have an "Obama" level candidate in the field.
2020 is very winnable for Trump.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 9:12 am
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:12 am to Stidham8
Biden is the biggest threat because of his ties with Obama, who most moderates liked a decent amount. Trump is still a "good policy, bad person" type for a lot of people I know. Anytime you talk policy they say, "yea he has done well with jobs and the economy, but man...I just don't like him"
The big thing with Clinton was people hated her too. So it was really a focus of who will fix our country and Trump won that.
Biden has the fake politician thing, which sadly, a lot of Americans fall for. He is the biggest threat to Trump in 2020, but still don't see him winning.
He won't win Florida. He won't win Ohio with the job creation there. He can swing a few states back to make it closer but I think he doesn't pull it off in the end.
Hopefully he keeps playing the everyone is a victim of white men card. American has really responded well to that
The big thing with Clinton was people hated her too. So it was really a focus of who will fix our country and Trump won that.
Biden has the fake politician thing, which sadly, a lot of Americans fall for. He is the biggest threat to Trump in 2020, but still don't see him winning.
He won't win Florida. He won't win Ohio with the job creation there. He can swing a few states back to make it closer but I think he doesn't pull it off in the end.
Hopefully he keeps playing the everyone is a victim of white men card. American has really responded well to that
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:12 am to IrishTiger89
quote:
There was a TX poll last week that had Biden +1 over Trump
Yeah he's in big, big trouble here. Lot's of people are thinking about staying home or voting 3rd party.
They found out he said something offensive to women several years ago...
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:13 am to Jon Ham
quote:some polls still have Hillary beating Trump.
Poll out yesterday had Biden leading Trump in AZ by 5.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:19 am to Stidham8
I don't know if this proposed "Compact" thing that a number of Blue States are adopting to award their electoral votes will stand up if challenged legally.
On one hand the Constitution pretty much specifies that a state legislature can award electoral votes as they see fit - including by using a lucky bug in a matchbox or something if they were so inclined.
On the other hand there is the whole "Interstate Compact" thing, which may not be Constitutional. Leave it to the Legal Beagles to dox this out.
But if this compact thing somehow is in play in 2020 - uh this is one way Trump could win an electoral landslide.
If Trump got California and Washington State's votes from this - these would be the sweetest tears ever tasted.
Of course there are also efforts afoot to keep Trump off the ballot in Blue states over the Tax Return thing. I kind of think this one has less chance of happening than the compact thing. But again, I'm no lawyer.
On one hand the Constitution pretty much specifies that a state legislature can award electoral votes as they see fit - including by using a lucky bug in a matchbox or something if they were so inclined.
On the other hand there is the whole "Interstate Compact" thing, which may not be Constitutional. Leave it to the Legal Beagles to dox this out.
But if this compact thing somehow is in play in 2020 - uh this is one way Trump could win an electoral landslide.
If Trump got California and Washington State's votes from this - these would be the sweetest tears ever tasted.
Of course there are also efforts afoot to keep Trump off the ballot in Blue states over the Tax Return thing. I kind of think this one has less chance of happening than the compact thing. But again, I'm no lawyer.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:24 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Poll out yesterday had Biden leading Trump in AZ by 5. Nothing is certain at this stage.
Pollster must have bribed some people offering a lap dance by Sinema.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:33 am to Stidham8
I don't Trump is going to win Michigan and Wisconsin this time if you look at the 2018 poll numbers. PA just re-elected their Dem governor too.
Posted on 5/10/19 at 9:38 am to Stidham8
I hope so, but I have concerns about the senate.
In 2018 more seats with dem incumbents were up for election than seats with republican incumbents. This probably helped the republicans gain senate seats.
In 2020, only 12 seats with dem incumbents are up for election, while 22 seats with republican incumbents are up for election.
As we are witnessing at present, senate control is imperative, because of court and other appointments. Hope we can retain control of the senate in 2020, but we have to be concerned. The numbers are strongly against us.
Fortunately, by their actions, the dems seem to be bent on helping the republicans win, but given the number difference, Trump is still going to need strong coat tails.
In 2018 more seats with dem incumbents were up for election than seats with republican incumbents. This probably helped the republicans gain senate seats.
In 2020, only 12 seats with dem incumbents are up for election, while 22 seats with republican incumbents are up for election.
As we are witnessing at present, senate control is imperative, because of court and other appointments. Hope we can retain control of the senate in 2020, but we have to be concerned. The numbers are strongly against us.
Fortunately, by their actions, the dems seem to be bent on helping the republicans win, but given the number difference, Trump is still going to need strong coat tails.
This post was edited on 5/10/19 at 9:42 am
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