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re: Rand Paul wants you to be 70 before you can draw Social Security

Posted on 11/5/25 at 6:47 am to
Posted by Warfox
B.R. Native (now in MA)
Member since Apr 2017
3833 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 6:47 am to
quote:

quote: So he wants Americans to enjoy only 8 years of peace (if you’re lucky) before you die. [\quote]

[quote]Also nobody is stopping you from saving for your own retirement bro This is what is wrong with America today you shouldn't be waiting for the government to fund your retirement for you


Social Securiy should either NOT be mandatory, or it should allow individuals to CHOOSE how said money is invested.

To whit: my retirement plan allows me to direct my $ into specific mutual funds instead of broad baskets or tiers of aggressiveness.

I’m up 5x what my plans best baskets rate of return has posted this year alone,
This post was edited on 11/5/25 at 6:51 am
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
13507 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 7:41 am to
quote:


That is way more than what was ever intended.


I'm not sure about that. Yeah, the average life expectancy was lower, by a lot, but from what I read that was mainly due to poor rates of infant mortality bringing the average down.

It looks to me like plenty of people lived to be 75+ back then too.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
13507 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 7:46 am to
quote:

There are folks in this thread calling SS welfare. It isn't ... yet.


The Supreme Court said it was. Look up Flemming v Nestor.. It was very clear that SS is an entitlement.

quote:

But the moment we uncouple SS contributions from payout, is the moment the welfare Rubicon is crossed.


That's just a condition on the degree of entitlement someone qualifies for. Just like the number of dependents or the amount of money someone makes outside of welfare at a part time job (which is completely individual). It's just a means test.

That doesn't mean it's not an entitlement.

Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49411 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 8:17 am to
quote:

I'm not sure about that. Yeah, the average life expectancy was lower, by a lot, but from what I read that was mainly due to poor rates of infant mortality bringing the average down.

It looks to me like plenty of people lived to be 75+ back then too.


About 40% of people born in 1900 survived to 65 or older.

About 82% of people born 1985 will survive to 66 or older.

It’s more than double
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
13507 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 6:33 pm to
quote:

About 40% of people born in 1900 survived to 65 or older.

About 82% of people born 1985 will survive to 66 or older.

It’s more than double


Read what I posted again.

If you don't see the problem with your stats in that context, read it until you do.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49411 posts
Posted on 11/5/25 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Read what I posted again.

If you don't see the problem with your stats in that context, read it until you do.


I read it.

You argued that life expectancy was not a good metric due to high infant mortality rates, fine.

So I offered the metric that shows that Americans who were approaching 40 at the time SS was introduced were more likely than not, not going to live to 65. This pales in comparison to the 80% of current Americans approaching 40 who are expected to live to 65.

It’s really not that complicated.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
13507 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 8:19 am to
quote:

It’s really not that complicated.


I guess it wouldn't be if you actually posted what you claimed to have posted.

quote:

So I offered the metric that shows that Americans who were approaching 40 at the time SS was introduced were more likely than not, not going to live to 65.


LOL. That is not at all what you posted. Look at it again.

That may be what you read, but that's not what you posted here.

Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63062 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 8:27 am to
quote:

100% correct

raising the age must happen for solvency



we are running a trillion dollar annual deficit.

Balance the budget everywhere else and I think you'd have a good argument for adjustments to Social Security.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63062 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 8:29 am to
quote:

Pennies on the dollar. Won't do shite



Show your math.
Posted by Chingon Ag
Member since Nov 2018
4130 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 8:40 am to
Eff the assholes that established this program and those along the way that have kept it in place.
This post was edited on 11/7/25 at 8:43 am
Posted by MidWestGuy
Illinois
Member since Nov 2018
2002 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 9:12 am to
It's been said a few times, but this is a long thread and bears repeating.

This statistic is not the right one to apply:
quote:

The life expectancy for an American today is 78.4 years. So he wants Americans to enjoy only 8 years of peace (if you’re lucky) before you die.
******BZZZZZZZTTTTTTT!!!!!! WRONG!!!!!!******
LINK
That is LE at birth. Someone who hasn't paid a penny into SS, many of who will not only never reach retirement age, but never even reach working age.

The relevant statistic is for someone who has attained the age of 70, how long are they expected to live? That table says age 84 for males, 86 for females. So 14/16 years on average.

And it isn't a matter of 'luck,' roughly(*) half will exceed that age. And no doubt life-style comes into play, a 70 YO pack-a-day guy probably won't make it much longer.


(*): it's not a 'median' number, so the distribution is skewed, but probably close
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49411 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

So I offered the metric that shows that Americans who were approaching 40 at the time SS was introduced were more likely than not, not going to live to 65.



quote:

LOL. That is not at all what you posted. Look at it again.


quote:

About 40% of people born in 1900 survived to 65 or older.


The first social security payments were made in 1937. Americans born in 1900 would have been 37 years old at the time ("approaching 40"). Of that cohort of people, only around 40% would go on to make it 65 years old.

So they, more likely than not, were going to die before age 65.

Again, this isn't complicated
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63365 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

So he wants Americans to enjoy only 8 years of peace (if you’re lucky) before you die.
Nope. Nothing about what he said prevents you from earning your own retirement.

When did it become government's job to ensure your "peace before you die"? Never figured you for a socialist, stout?
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63365 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 12:57 pm to
quote:

we are running a trillion dollar annual deficit.

Balance the budget everywhere else
You could cut discretionary spending to $0 and barely balance the budget.
Posted by tigercross
Member since Feb 2008
5067 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

The first social security payments were made in 1937. Americans born in 1900 would have been 37 years old at the time ("approaching 40"). Of that cohort of people, only around 40% would go on to make it 65 years old.

So they, more likely than not, were going to die before age 65.

Again, this isn't complicated


It's not complicated, but you're interpreting it incorrectly.

40% of people born in 1900 would be expected to live until 65. However, many of them would die in the years between 1900-1937. Of the people born in 1900 who were still alive in 1937, a much greater percentage would be expected to live to 65+. In fact, the life expectancy of a 65 year old male in 1940 was 77 LINK.

So it stands to reason that a large majority of people in the US who were born in 1900 and lived until 1937 would be expected to live to 65+. Certainly much more than 40%.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63062 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 2:12 pm to
quote:

You could cut discretionary spending to $0 and barely balance the budget.



Are you suggesting that Social Security be cut beyond its deficit in order to solve other things contributing to the deficit?
Posted by GooseSix
Member since Jun 2012
22491 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 2:23 pm to
Rand Paul is a fricking idiot.
Posted by thunderbird1100
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
72323 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

The life expectancy for an American today is 78.4 years. So he wants Americans to enjoy only 8 years of peace (if you’re lucky) before you die.



Life expectancy is actually 82 for men and 85 for women if they make it to 62; which means 20-23 years on average of people on the benefit in retirement age if you take at 62.

SS age has needed to be raised for a very long time even if people arent going to like it. It's part of what will help keep it afloat and not in the red ultimately. It was designed with much lower draw times when it was implemented a century ago nearly. The average life expectancy WAS 62 years old when it was implemented in comparison to 79 now.
This post was edited on 11/7/25 at 2:30 pm
Posted by GreatPumpkin
Member since Mar 2022
3269 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 2:31 pm to
While we bail out Argentina, arm Ukraine and pay for the Jews. What a shameful government we’ve created
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
20116 posts
Posted on 11/7/25 at 2:33 pm to
It should've been raised years ago. The life expectancy when it was first initiated was 65 years old.
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