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re: Quietly, Covid-19 daily case rate is on the rise

Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:25 am to
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
109691 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Given the pattern this thing has had, I think what you’re seeing is a “spike” heavily blunted by 100m vaccinations.



Statistically speaking, can you even declare it a "spike" versus a sort of "leveling off"? Is it too early to determine, one way or another? Should either be seen as completely unexpected or cause for any concern?
Posted by deathvalleytiger10
Member since Sep 2009
9055 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:26 am to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


The tests are very unreliable. The truth is this:

1) We have not had near as many cases as they want us to believe.

2) We have not had near as many true Covid deaths as they want us to believe.
Posted by Ailsa
Member since May 2020
3575 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:27 am to
Posted by BiteMe2020
Texas
Member since Nov 2020
7284 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:27 am to
First, you're assuming the numbers aren't still being lied about and manipulated.

Second, you're assuming the numbers aren't still being lied about and manipulated.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:28 am to
I think it would possibly be a spike without the vaccines.

We’ve had 3-4 pretty significant “spikes” somewhat regularly and we may have been due for another one.

I wouldn’t be remotely concerned about any increased in cases
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 11:29 am
Posted by Ailsa
Member since May 2020
3575 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:30 am to
Posted by AUMIS01
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
1405 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:34 am to
I'll answer this seriously. Younger people, at very low risk of death and not yet eligible for the vaccine, saying frick this shite and starting to live their lives again after self-exiling for a year. Guarantee the age breakdown of cases now is heavily tilted towards people below the age of 55.

Edit: Also rising mostly in blue states that stayed locked down. Us outliers here in Georgia, still operating under mostly red governance principles for a year or so longer, are still seeing dropping cases.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 11:37 am
Posted by Statestreet
Gueydan
Member since Sep 2008
13884 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:35 am to
and now he’s dead
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
125448 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:36 am to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


I wouldn’t rule out vaccination.
Posted by The Maj
Member since Sep 2016
30543 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:37 am to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


Need a new narrative because the latest mass shooting has fallen apart on them and is going to turn into an Aloha Snackbar moment...
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
23048 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:39 am to
quote:


Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


Maybe that is just where the # will be. 56k cases a day in a country of 330mil seems pretty negligible.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
23787 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:14 pm to
What is the standard deviation of new cases per day? Is a 3.5% change over a 10 day statistically relevant?

A rise of that amount may mean something or may not. Without any context, you seem to be fear-mongering.


Posted by mtb010
San Antonio
Member since Sep 2009
6119 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:21 pm to
Weather is great and people are getting out more, spring break, a flood of illegals that are coming in and then get packed in together like sardines and it spreads like wildfire. I for one am not concerned with an increase in the positivity rate, the only thing to be concerned about is if there is a rise in the hospitalization.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 12:22 pm
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40583 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Guarantee the age breakdown of cases now is heavily tilted towards people below the age of 55.


You would be correct from what I've seen.

The 70+ cohort in Minnesota is flat and everyone else is up.

This will vary from state to state depending on vaccination.

The good news is if the vaccines work as advertised there is no basis to increase restrictions as it should be relatively impossible to reach the heights we previously had. At worst, they could justify local restrictions for unvaccinated pockets, for example Detroit.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 12:24 pm
Posted by Bulldogblitz
In my house
Member since Dec 2018
28158 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


Baked potato children on the border.
Posted by joshnorris14
Florida
Member since Jan 2009
46679 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

A rise of that amount may mean something or may not. Without any context, you seem to be fear-mongering.



I explained the concept and it's absolutely not fear mongering. The context is that we saw a precipitous decline from 250k cases a day in January to 56k in Mid-March, but that fast decline has, at best, stopped, and at worst, slightly reversed.

The RELATIVE increase is through the roof, which is why I wanted to have some people present possible explanations without thinking there was any significant problem that was starting to become apparent
Posted by BayBengal9
Bay St. Louis, MS
Member since Nov 2019
4171 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


Idontcare.gif
Posted by BigJim
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2010
14968 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:50 pm to
Yay! Another nut job opining about COVID! It's cool, I can do my daily good deed by trying to combat this nonsense.

quote:

The truth is this:

1) We have not had near as many cases as they want us to believe.


Probably more cases than statistics reflect, particularly early on. Even now the tests are more likely to give a false negative than a false positive. Talking about the molecular tests.

quote:

2) We have not had near as many true Covid deaths as they want us to believe.


Ah, the old "you got hit by a bus with COVID" nonsense. Again, confirmed COVID deaths are probably understated.

If you compare the typical deaths in a year with 2020 deaths you will see deaths are up even more than the number of confirmed COVID deaths. Some of this are COVID deaths that were not caught and some are other problems caused by the pandemic (drug overdoses and delayed treatment for non COVID problems).


You're welcome


Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
62023 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Does anyone have any theories as to what's causing this?


We are at rock bottom. What you are seeing is what residual infection rate will look like when you combine false positive with actual cases.
Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
20407 posts
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:52 pm to
Its an f'n bad cold. I've had it, my whole family had it, kids included.

Much like the flu and cold, people with co-morbidities die.


Open it back up and lets roll. Asa said no mask starting March 31st, and I celebrated by not wearing mine this week at all.

Went to a funeral, over 200 in attendance, nobody caried about distancing. People are done with Covid and realize its nothing more than cold made worse by Fauci.
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