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re: Private payrolls shrunk 33k in June, badly missing expectations of 100k increase - ADP

Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:06 am to
Posted by RFK
Mar-a-Lago
Member since May 2012
2565 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:06 am to
The job market had badly needed a correction for a while now.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
463856 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:08 am to
There is a significant amount of tax theft each year with fraudulent filings. Like some big number like $40B

That's a different type of fraud where they file on an actual person's social security number before the person does and they take their tax credits and what not so that the actual citizen can't get it.
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
76651 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:08 am to
The stock market is crashing too, right?
Posted by gatorsimz
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
8279 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:15 am to
Time to lower rates
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
134936 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:16 am to
quote:

Is the correction finally coming?
Probably 10% over the summer.
Posted by geoag58
Member since Nov 2011
1508 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:16 am to
quote:

In many instances, yes.

That's why there are so many "dead" SSNs in circulation and why illegals have been supporting Medicare/SS for years.


When they start the citizenship process they suddenly show up with a new SS card and go from five dependents to one. I had this happen several times in my time owning a business.
Posted by Nosevens
Member since Apr 2019
16886 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:18 am to
In larger companies absolutely. A meat processor in Nebraska just went through that phase of getting raided and American people applying for the jobs afterwards. Do you really think that a company and hire 100’s of people of the books and pay taxes on the increased profits while at the same time absorbing the chances of injuries, payroll taxes fraud ? Your uncanniness to pick the wrong positions are shockingly high
Posted by Iron Lion
Romulus
Member since Nov 2014
13646 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:22 am to
quote:

Illegals pay payroll taxes?
If the illegal works for a staffing company, they absolutely do
Posted by TigerBaitOohHaHa
Member since Jan 2023
1745 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:23 am to
If it has a "spotty record" in predicting employment numbers, then why the hell is it even reported?

This is one of those sources that CNBC would report if it suits them and ignore when it doesn't.

They could ask my buddy James what his predictions are too. He's a total drunk and his record is also very spotty
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
2853 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:23 am to
quote:

SDVTiger


You have no credibility on this topic. Zero.

And yet here you are, spamming every thread on the topic with your usual refrain.

You’re consistent, I’ll give you that.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91265 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:35 am to
quote:

stock market is crashing too, right?


Who is saying this?
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
76651 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:36 am to
That's what the panicans have been saying and hoping for.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91265 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:38 am to
quote:

f it has a "spotty record" in predicting employment numbers, then why the hell is it even reported? This is one of those sources that CNBC would report if it suits them and ignore when it doesn't


it’s reported every single month. It’s not a predictor of anything- it’s ADP’s monthly change in payrolls. It’s a non-governmental factual report.

However, it has a poor correlation to the BLS (government) report that follows it 2 days later.
Posted by CorchJay
Member since Nov 2018
20779 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 8:39 am to
ADP is a pathetic company. My wife is an HR manager she works closely with ADP payroll and they can’t ever answer a damn question about their own system.
Posted by PorkSammich
North FL
Member since Sep 2013
16588 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:03 am to
quote:

some in here like to proclaim that tariffs stimulate economic activity


Based on their postings I don’t think a lot on here have real jobs. Tariffs are negatively impacting American manufacturers despite the spin.
Posted by RohanGonzales
Member since Apr 2024
7644 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:05 am to
quote:


Wait, yesterday I was told that, check notes, every single metric of the economy showed it was strong.

Even one Einstein said it was the “strongest economy ever”


You sound positively gleeful!
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
124665 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:07 am to
quote:

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June


Unexpectedly…

We’re most likely heading for something Trump can’t stop.

We’re going to have to eventually pay the piper for the Covid lunacy and the invoice is in the mail.
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
18414 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:13 am to
quote:

Lotta illegals being purged from the books.


In all seriousness, wouldnt this be true? They have bogus SS# to get a job so if they leave, wouldnt that affect employment. 15 million additional people are working somewhere, well most of them, it must have an impact. And not all are private cash jobs.
Posted by Man4others
Member since Aug 2017
2439 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:15 am to
High interest rates leads to money being put into US Treasuries vs investing in private industries which build companies and create jobs
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
18414 posts
Posted on 7/2/25 at 9:18 am to
Slackster, though unpopular I agree with you. The fed has kept the rates in tact and continued quantitative tightening, reducing trillions from the money supply and corralling inflation all while tariffs must have had some upward pressure.

We are about to pass a massive bill, lets just hang on and see what happens rather than take another hit from the crack pipe.
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