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Polymarket odds on the Senate

Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:00 am
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10907 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:00 am
How the heck are Kansas and Iowa now in play for the Dems?

LINK
Posted by UtahCajun
Member since Jul 2021
9189 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:01 am to
Iowa always has been.
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
4642 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:02 am to
Because are placing bets that Iowa and Kansas go blue, it has nothing to do with actual results
Posted by Bama Bird
Pittsburgh, PA
Member since Mar 2013
23236 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:03 am to
They're probably not, really. Certainly not with that type of confidence level.

Prediction markets are the new suppression polls
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10907 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:04 am to
If those odds go chalk then Dems are flipping 7 Senate seats and holding everywhere else.

NC
Texas
Kansas
Maine
Alaska
Ohio
Iowa

The one silver lining is that’ll be a huge presidential year in 2032 for Republicans flipping a lot of senate seats back. Georgia and North Carolina will be in play then too.
This post was edited on 11/3/26 at 11:05 am
Posted by Green Chili Tiger
Lurking the Tin Foil Hat Board
Member since Jul 2009
51594 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:04 am to
quote:

How the heck are Kansas and Iowa now in play for the Dems?


You're asking how two states with higher than average concentrations of farmers that also use gas, diesel, and groceries can be in play for the opposition party this year? Seriously?
Posted by MF Doom
I'm only Joshin'
Member since Oct 2008
12237 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:04 am to
B L O O D B A T H
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
10907 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:05 am to
quote:

You're asking how two states with higher than average concentrations of farmers that also use gas, diesel, and groceries can be in play for the opposition party this year? Seriously?


Wait, the farmers are dumb enough to think that the democrats (the party that wants to cripple fossil fuels) are the better option?

LMFAO, this country is full of f’n idiots.
This post was edited on 11/3/26 at 11:06 am
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
26646 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:06 am to
Because Polymarket makes money regardless of who wins.
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
4642 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:08 am to
Right? And people still don’t get it, they think it’s like sports betting where the house sets the odds. It isn’t like that at all.
Posted by Barstools
Atlanta
Member since Jan 2016
12574 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:10 am to
Please stop posting prediction market threads if you dont understand prediction markets work
Posted by bird35
Georgia
Member since Sep 2012
13797 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:14 am to
Kansas democrats ran a man who appears normal and moderate who is a pastor at a megachurch.

I’m sure his policies are crazy liberal, but he can pretend to be moderate during the election especially with the media covering for him.

Also, the tariffs and cost of diesel fuel have caused more pain in Kansas than many other States.

I think Kansas stays red but it will be close.
Posted by ksayetiger
Centenary Gents
Member since Jul 2007
70548 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:17 am to
I bet money on dems winning several states.

Will they? Doubt it. But if they do ill be dancing to the bank
Posted by Bham4Tide
In a Van down by the River
Member since Feb 2011
24815 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Please stop posting prediction market threads if you dont understand prediction markets work


This.

These threads are just stupid and uneducated.

It’s like posting and bitching about Vegas odds. The odds go a certain way for a reason. They WANT you to bet a certain way - they win regardless.

This post was edited on 11/3/26 at 11:18 am
Posted by Blizzard of Chizz
Member since Apr 2012
21847 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:19 am to
quote:

You're asking how two states with higher than average concentrations of farmers that also use gas, diesel, and groceries can be in play for the opposition party this year? Seriously?


This is wishcasting. It’s very seductive to think oh these poor farmers are so fighting mad about diesel prices that they are going to pull the lever for the other side, but that ignores the reality they live in. Farmers exist in a world of fluctuations, where the price of everything in their industry goes up and down. They may bitch about gas prices like the rest of us, but at the end of the day most are as dug into their political ideology as the rest of us. If you believe Dems and their lunacy were bad for the country when fuel was 2 dollars a gallon you still believe Dems and their lunacy is bad for the country when fuel is 4 dollars a gallon..

The only real factor in play here is apathy. You either find it worth your time to get off your arse and vote or you don’t.
Posted by WhiteMandingo
Member since Jan 2016
8389 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:20 am to
Well your right about the democrats wanting to kill oil and gas , but what has this administration done to help them??
Its like deciding to cut of a ear but you get to pick which one?
Its a choice but not a good outcome either way.
This post was edited on 11/3/26 at 12:17 pm
Posted by Geauxldilocks
Member since Aug 2018
6861 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:22 am to
Relax. Dem candidates themselves and betting huge on themselves to generate interest and suppress R votes.

The less you listen to pollsters and betting off sites the more informed you will be. How many examples of Selzer Iowa polls do you need to realize all of this is rigged?
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
34836 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:23 am to
They all going to cash out when it started flipping back to the Republicans once polls start closing
Posted by Wildcat1996
Lexington, KY
Member since Jul 2020
11167 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:24 am to
quote:

Prediction markets are the new suppression polls


I think there is some truth to this. I also think people believe the Dems are better positioned than they truly are due to wish-casting by left-leaning media outlets.

The left has largely run campaigns against someone who isn't on any ballot. I'm not sure that's a strategy for success.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
25621 posts
Posted on 11/3/26 at 11:25 am to
Is there any scientific basis behind that like true polling or is it like Kalshi where people bet what they think?

The amount of money wasted on the Telefreko candidacy shows how people will throw money at something wish casting it comes true.
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