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Our federal debt.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:26 pm
I believe 2/3 of the debt is owned by domestic holders, with the Federal Reserve holding the most, and the rest by foreign governments and investors. If the worst came to worst and we could only pay one, which one should it be? With the deficit being massive and the lack of any serious will to pay it, One of the two may be our only option.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:28 pm to BuckI
The debt will never be paid and everyone in DC knows it. At some point in the future, world governments will all default and start over.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:32 pm to BuckI
They’ve continually kicked the can so far down the road they can’t even see it anymore.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:37 pm to BuckI
quote:
If the worst came to worst and we could only pay one, which one should it be? With the deficit being massive and the lack of any serious will to pay it, One of the two may be our only option.
That’s called default and is not an option. It’s collapse.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:38 pm to BuckI
That’s not how the sovereign debt market works.
It’s not like these are mortgages that can just be written off. Our debts are in treasuries which the whole world holds.
However, even IF we could just forgive our own debt (which we can’t) it would be the equivalent of printing that much cash- which would be an inflationary disaster.
It’s not like these are mortgages that can just be written off. Our debts are in treasuries which the whole world holds.
However, even IF we could just forgive our own debt (which we can’t) it would be the equivalent of printing that much cash- which would be an inflationary disaster.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:38 pm to BuckI
We print the money.
The problem with the debt is not repayment, it's destroying the value of our currency in doing so.
The problem with the debt is not repayment, it's destroying the value of our currency in doing so.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:40 pm to BuckI
quote:
I believe 2/3 of the debt is owned by domestic holders, with the Federal Reserve holding the most, and the rest by foreign governments and investors.
Sort of. Current federal debt is just a smidge under $37T. The largest single owner is the federal government itself through intragovernmental holdings at ~21%. This breaks down to trust for Social Security, Medicare, military retirement, Medicare federal employee retirement funds, highway trust funds, etc.
The next category is the generalized "domestic holders" (ie: non-federal holders) and that breaks down into a LOT of unrelated sub-categories (which is why I didn't count it as being #1). It not only includes the Fed, but pensions, state/local governments, insurance companies, investors, etc. This accounts for ~55% of the debt ownership.
So if you are including the federal government itself in "domestic holders" then it's closer to 80%. If you're not including the federal government, then it's more like 55%. Take out the Fed and state/local governments and it gets closer to 35%-36%.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:42 pm to DesScorp
quote:
The debt will never be paid and everyone in DC knows
The debt will always be paid by accruing more debt. It's a ponzi scheme that only works because people still have faith in the dollar for some reason.
There's no good option. If we paid all of our debt it would mean people stopped buying our Treasury bonds, which means people no longer trust the dollar.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:45 pm to Great Plains Drifter
quote:I think just the opposite. That monster has grown so large, it overshadows everything.
They’ve continually kicked the can so far down the road they can’t even see it anymore.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:45 pm to BuckI
Dissolve the FR as it’s no different than the hand in the right pocket putting it in the left hand to put in left pocket. For this privilege the “ banks “ get a constant supply of money funneled to them.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:49 pm to Nosevens
quote:
Dissolve the FR
Most politicians or officials who say that usually die in iceberg collisions, head shots, Arkansas suicide and/or airplane crashes.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 12:49 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
he debt will always be paid by accruing more debt. It's a ponzi scheme that only works because people still have faith in the dollar for some reason.
Exactly, as faith in the currency & govt deteriorate the only choice is to issue new debt at higher interest rates to attract investors. Eventually, debt gets too expensive to repay and the country defaults. Greece and Venezuela are examples. They were small enough economies for foreign intervention. Nobody can bail out the US.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 1:25 pm to BuckI
Raise your hand with me if back in the 2010’s you thought that China owned 99.99% of the us debt.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 1:26 pm to PerplenGold
quote:
Exactly, as faith in the currency & govt deteriorate the only choice is to issue new debt at higher interest rates to attract investors. Eventually, debt gets too expensive to repay and the country defaults. Greece and Venezuela are examples. They were small enough economies for foreign intervention. Nobody can bail out the US.
Correct except for a few parts:
quote:
Eventually, debt gets too expensive to repay
This can't happen. We can always print more money. What happens in that case, though, is the value/return on investment goes to zero or negative. If I take out a 20-year bond and get 5% annualized return, but the dollar is worth 50% less, I'm screwed.
We can *always* repay because we control the quantity of the repayment instrument. But if people lose money on bonds, they stop buying.
That's one way to get our debt to $0, but it won't be a good scene.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 1:56 pm to jonnyanony
quote:
We can *always* repay because we control the quantity of the repayment instrument. But if people lose money on bonds, they stop buying.
Sure, out of control printing leads to massive inflation and in worst cases default. All part of the death spiral.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 2:11 pm to PerplenGold
quote:
That’s called default and is not an option. It’s collapse.
Look at the data on the debt service and explain how it’s “not an option”.
Given the inability of Congress to tighten spending even with the GOP running things and the existing debt we have it’s not only an option, it’s an inevitability.
What do you think they meant by “the great reset”?
Posted on 5/19/25 at 2:16 pm to BuckI
If we want the Dollar to remain the world’s Reserve Currency, we’d best pay it back.


Posted on 5/19/25 at 2:24 pm to tide06
quote:
Given the inability of Congress to tighten spending even with the GOP running things and the existing debt we have it’s not only an option, it’s an inevitability.
Parsing words here. Default is not a choice nor an option any country would voluntarily choose. Definitely not a country with the world’s largest economy.
quote:
What do you think they meant by “the great reset”?
frick if I know. A catchy slogan that glosses over the realities of what would actually happen.
Posted on 5/19/25 at 2:50 pm to PerplenGold
quote:
Parsing words here. Default is not a choice nor an option any country would voluntarily choose. Definitely not a country with the world’s largest economy.
What do you suppose is going to happen when we can no longer finance the federal debt plus the interest plus our entitlements via the bond market?
We are already struggling to do so now while we still have reserve currency status. Our biggest geopolitical rivals are meeting in Rio in a few months to begin the process to end that.
That doesn’t even touch on our obligations regarding money that’s been stolen from social security and other programs to fund other boondoggles.
To top it off we are about to pass a ten year budget plan that guarantees close to $2T/year in additional debt.
So to be clear, I’m not stating a default is a good thing. Much will change when it happens depending on who is running the show when it happens. But it is absolutely a question of when not if we default and on our current track it’ll happen before 2035 just based on simple mathematics absent historical levels of taxable GDP increases or fiscal austerity that isn’t possible politically in the United States.
quote:
frick if I know. A catchy slogan that glosses over the realities of what would actually happen.
It was going to be a pivot to a US backed crypto currency with a haircut to all accounts and 401ks that would grant the government total control of your spending similar to what the Chinese have.
Here’s a video outlining how they’re moving towards implementation in Canada without over mention of the debt restructuring that would accompany it:
WEF-backed central bank digital currency could leverage supreme government control
And since that is an obscure website here’s a link to an article from the actual Atlantic council outlining in their own words what they want and that 134 nations are already exploring it or in process of implementation:
Atlantic Council: CBDC
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 5/19/25 at 2:58 pm to BuckI
I’ve said this elsewhere: The US harnessing the atom first and developing a humanity ending amount of nuclear weapons is essentially the philosopher’s stone made reality. Our debt does not matter because we can end the existence of any party who calls in their debt. It’s grim but I think that’s the calculus our government actually operates under though they’ll never say it out loud.
This post was edited on 5/19/25 at 2:59 pm
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