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Oil/Economy/Midterms
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:42 pm
We’re a bit over 3 months from midterms. Economy is always a key factor in elections. Maybe less now than it used to because of how many issues there are with hard stances by either side.
Economy is doing well and markets are up this year so folks 401k investments look good. However, oil is getting tight and might drive fuel higher over the coming months unless an actual agreement is made in Iran.
I wonder if the right has a messaging plan in place because although the midterms are in Nov, the 2 months prior is when attack ads start - so about 5 weeks from now.
Pedo Joe drained the SPR meaning there is less to draw from. We are currently drawing it at 3.5m per week.
Oil stocks are low. Here’s whats on hand, its whats in commercial storage PLUS what is in the SPR as if 7-24:
For the week Bloomberg expected a drop of -1.5m barrels. Actual number is -7.2m barrels. Cushing falls to 18.6m barrels.
This could become a problem. We still have time but it bears watching. Its not just voters who use fuel its farmers and truckers and so many others. Hopefully smart voters can see beyond but we have a lot of short sighted voters who the leftists will take advantage of if gas goes higher in a month.
Economy is doing well and markets are up this year so folks 401k investments look good. However, oil is getting tight and might drive fuel higher over the coming months unless an actual agreement is made in Iran.
I wonder if the right has a messaging plan in place because although the midterms are in Nov, the 2 months prior is when attack ads start - so about 5 weeks from now.
Pedo Joe drained the SPR meaning there is less to draw from. We are currently drawing it at 3.5m per week.
Oil stocks are low. Here’s whats on hand, its whats in commercial storage PLUS what is in the SPR as if 7-24:
For the week Bloomberg expected a drop of -1.5m barrels. Actual number is -7.2m barrels. Cushing falls to 18.6m barrels.
This could become a problem. We still have time but it bears watching. Its not just voters who use fuel its farmers and truckers and so many others. Hopefully smart voters can see beyond but we have a lot of short sighted voters who the leftists will take advantage of if gas goes higher in a month.
8
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:49 pm to OU Guy
China helped for a while by drawing on reserves and cutting imports in half. This guy said there will be major problems in about 22 weeks, he cuts that in half if China's imports go back to normal.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:49 pm to OU Guy
I'm personally doing better than any other point in my life by quite a wide margin.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 12:50 pm to OU Guy
Here's a little economic/financial tidbit that has not been getting much coverage. It was reported a week or so ago there are nearly 10 million delinquent student loans.
From Google AI......,
In the Financial Meltdown of 2008/2009 it was CDOs, CDS and distressed real estate at the core of the meltdown, I wonder if 10-12 million Americans not being able to pay their student loan obligations will trigger another meltdown?
FYI, currently there is nearly $2 trillion of outstanding consumer debt tied to student loans.
From Google AI......,
quote:
Nearly 12 million federal student loan borrowers are currently delinquent or in default, representing over a quarter of the federal portfolio. This includes about 9.5 million borrowers in formal default (more than nine months late) and millions more in various stages of early or serious delinquency following the end of pandemic-era payment pauses
In the Financial Meltdown of 2008/2009 it was CDOs, CDS and distressed real estate at the core of the meltdown, I wonder if 10-12 million Americans not being able to pay their student loan obligations will trigger another meltdown?
FYI, currently there is nearly $2 trillion of outstanding consumer debt tied to student loans.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:01 pm to EasterEgg
quote:
I'm personally doing better than any other point in my life by quite a wide margin.
Some of us are. But we also research the issues and select the best candidate.
The problem is our votes get cancelled by others who never wanted to improve their stock in life and vote on emotional short range issues. And when the left uses high gas prices to scare their votes it ends up hurting everyone.
And thats what I’m addressing. The right needs to be ready and able to get the correct messaging out because the left is going to use high gas as an election rally point on attack ads.
The right is already going to lose votes due to not passing the SAVE act. Margins will be thin for some elections and fuel prices will become an issue.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:05 pm to Bass Tiger
If admin is smart they slow play late payments and don’t go after them hard until after elections
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:06 pm to OU Guy
quote:
I'm personally doing better than any other point in my life by quite a wide margin.
Some of us are. But we also research the issues and select the best candidate.
The problem is our votes get cancelled by others who never wanted go improve their stick in life and vote on emotional issues. And when the left uses high gas prices to scare their votes it ends up hurting everyone.
And thats what I’m addressing. The right needs to be ready and able to get the correct messaging out because the left is going to use high gas as an election rally point on attack ads.
The right is already going to lose votes due to not passing the SAVE act. Margins will be thin for some elections and fuel prices will become an issue.
The potential stumbling block for the midterms is Trump 2.0 not focusing 100% on domestic policies and more specifically, making sure the enemies from within are crushed, never to threaten the constitutional republic again. You can't defeat your external enemies when the enemies from within are a larger threat. God help us all if the Democratic Socialists gain power in the 2026 midterms.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:10 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:nah
I wonder if 10-12 million Americans not being able to pay their student loan obligations will trigger another meltdown?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:11 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Some of us are. But we also research the issues and select the best candidate.
Is this a criticism of the current administration? Or a flex that because you researched Trump and voted for him, all the people who are unemployed or struggling with the cost of living should have motivated more people to vote for Harris? What point are you trying to make with your statement?
quote:Gas prices don't change depending on who is filling up at the pump. "The Left" pays the same prices as "The Right." People can't be convinced that prices aren't high. Biden tried to do that to us his entire term and it didn't work for him either.
And when the left uses high gas prices to scare their votes it ends up hurting everyone.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:12 pm to OU Guy
quote:
If admin is smart they slow play late payments and don’t go after them hard until after elections
Guess what?
There are nearly 2.3 million home loans in default.
It's estimated somewhere between 5-6% of current car loans are in default.
It's estimated somewhere between 15-20% of all renters are in default.
Not sure where this ^^^^ stands historically but those numbers don't look all that good.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:18 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
Not sure where this ^^^^ stands historically but those numbers don't look all that good.
Then Joe can you tell if the numbers are good or bad?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:21 pm to OU Guy
One of the things obama did regarding student loans was give them to private contractors, and they were very successful in making many loans current.
Here was the program, a kid owes 500 a month, if he is current for three months the contractor gets a bonus of 3 grand.
Doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure it out, the contractor just paid off the loan for three months and netted 1500 bucks in the process. What an absolute joke.
Here was the program, a kid owes 500 a month, if he is current for three months the contractor gets a bonus of 3 grand.
Doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure it out, the contractor just paid off the loan for three months and netted 1500 bucks in the process. What an absolute joke.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:40 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Economy is doing well
Lol
Posted on 7/29/26 at 1:51 pm to OU Guy
I think the biggest problem for the GOP is voter apathy. Congressional republicans are an embarrassment. If Trump had stuck with the plan he was executing in his first 6 months in office, there may be some enthusiasm. However, he didn’t and has turned into a neocon.
I think the GOP loses the Congress. I think the Dems pick up more governor offices too.
SIDEBAR: I think the congressional republicans like being the minority party. They have no responsibility and can fund raise much easier.
I think the GOP loses the Congress. I think the Dems pick up more governor offices too.
SIDEBAR: I think the congressional republicans like being the minority party. They have no responsibility and can fund raise much easier.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:07 pm to OU Guy
quote:
Cushing falls to 18.6m barrels.
This could become a problem.
How much lower can Cushing go before it’s a problem?
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:16 pm to Decatur
They can’t go to zero due to pumps and pressure. And its not one giant storage tank its several so its multiplied.
They can hold around 80m so are less than 25%. Cushing is run very well and always updated.
Here’s a chart of the last year
They can hold around 80m so are less than 25%. Cushing is run very well and always updated.
Here’s a chart of the last year
Posted on 7/29/26 at 2:58 pm to OU Guy
Any president with a 35 percent approval rating on his handling of the economy means that his party should get slaughtered in the midterms. Above all else people vote with their wallets.
All the Democrats had to do was act halfway normal. But they couldn't help themselves. And now the midterms are a toss up.
All the Democrats had to do was act halfway normal. But they couldn't help themselves. And now the midterms are a toss up.
Posted on 7/29/26 at 3:03 pm to Bunk Moreland
People who possess the skill to make long term profit from speculation don't make Youtube videos about it.
The same principle applies to predicting the market whether actually betting on it or not.
The same principle applies to predicting the market whether actually betting on it or not.
This post was edited on 7/29/26 at 3:04 pm
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