re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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Mojtaba Khamenei’s authority is increasingly being challenged from within the Islamic Republic itself.

A sitting member of Iran’s parliament appears to have launched a direct theological attack on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, highlighting the growing challenges to his authority inside the regime.

Hamid Rasaee shared a passage referencing the story of Noah’s son - a figure rejected despite his family ties because he was deemed unworthy through his actions. The post emphasized that leadership and legitimacy come from faith and merit, not bloodline.

The message was widely interpreted as a thinly veiled attack on Mojtaba Khamenei and the dynastic nature of his succession.

The incident is notable because Mojtaba’s authority has faced growing public scrutiny since taking power.

Since succeeding his father, Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared publicly even once, fueling growing questions about his leadership, legitimacy, and ability to govern, both inside and outside the Islamic Republic.

What was once whispered behind closed doors is increasingly being said in public. Even figures within the establishment now appear willing to openly challenge the legitimacy and qualifications of the new Supreme Leader.

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This would be huge. Really huge. It could be a major win.
If Americans manage to gain a foothold inside Iran, legally and under peaceful conditions, it would open the door to providing real support to Iranian protesters.

It’s still only at the discussion/understanding stage, not a done deal or implementation yet. But I really hope they can make it happen through smart, smooth ”diplomacy”.

Also, you can be sure that some of the Iranian negotiators are already compromised and are just putting on a theater show for the hardliners, so ignore their barking and tough talk. Disregard @mb_ghalibaf for instance.

I’m very hopeful this succeeds.

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There's going to be ambiguity in whatever "deal" comes together that allows the strait to reopen.

-Trump will frame this is as a nuclear deal--even though it is very unlikely that Iran has agreed to anything up-front (agreement to address in principle during subsequent rounds of negotiations is very different).

-Iran will contend that it is fully in control of the strait and that a "new status quo" is now in effect--even though it is very likely Iran has agreed to allow traffic to resume as a pre-condition for the US lowering its blockade and de-escalating in general.

-Trump will claim that no money is being paid--even though it is very likely that Qatar has agreed to release some frozen funds ($6 billion, perhaps more), while the lowering of the US blockade will allow Iran to resume oil exports, a key source of revenue for the government.

Both sides need to claim victory. And it appears possible that both sides have realized this and are baking it into the agreement now currently being finalized.

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IRGC-owned Fars News in response to POTUS' post:

""" Knowledgeable sources, while refuting the recent claims of the American president regarding a potential agreement with Iran, have described his statements as "a mixture of truth and falsehood" and an attempt to present a fabricated victory. According to these sources, it has become evident to nearly everyone that these claims lack credibility.

According to this report, the text of the agreement, drafted under the framework of "commitment for commitment," is in its final stages of approval in Iran, and a definitive decision has not yet been made. In contrast, Trump, who sees himself unable to withdraw from the agreement, has made statements that contradict the provisions of the agreement text. He has simultaneously announced an immediate end to the blockade.

Trump's Distortion of Key Agreement Provisions:

1. Strait of Hormuz: Trump has claimed that Iran is obliged to open the Strait of Hormuz without imposing tolls, whereas no such clause exists in the agreement text. Iran has emphasized that after the lifting of the blockade, it will open the strait according to its pre-determined arrangements. These arrangements could include monitoring and inspection of vessels, as well as providing services and ensuring security, for which Iranian reporters from Fars News Agency hear preparations are underway.

2. Dismantling of Nuclear Materials: Trump has alleged that Iran will dismantle or destroy its nuclear materials. Knowledgeable sources have stressed that not only is there no such provision in the memorandum of understanding, but this claim is fundamentally groundless.

Key Agreement Clauses Ignored by Trump:

1. Immediate Payment of 12 Billion Dollars: The most crucial part of the agreement, which Trump has not mentioned, is the condition for an immediate payment of 12 billion dollars from Iran's blocked assets. According to the agreement text, this amount must be paid immediately, and until this payment is made, Iran will not enter any subsequent negotiation stages. Failure to implement this clause would constitute a violation of U.S. commitments.

2. Ceasefire in Lebanon: Another issue is the establishment of a complete ceasefire in Lebanon in accordance with Hezbollah's views.

According to knowledgeable sources, only if these issues are resolved will Iran, in the next stage, engage in discussions regarding the lifting of all sanctions and the nuclear issue, in accordance with its red lines.

Concurrent with these statements, Iranian officials have emphasized that the final agreement will be formulated based on the principles and red lines of the Islamic Republic of Iran's system and with a complete distrustful approach towards the United States, such that any breaking of promises will be met with immediate reciprocal action. """

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According to Trump, we, but not Iran, have the technology to dig up the nuclear dust from its deep underground location. Assuming that's the case, what's to stop them from 1) letting our people in to dig out the dust 2) taking custody of the dust and then saying "thanks, suckers- we'll be keeping that" and 3) keeping our people as hostages? We're supposed to just trust them?

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and 3) keeping our people as hostages?

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Short of a nuclear explosion, how do you "destroy" an element on the periodic table like uranium? I hope that "destroy" isn't a code word for "dilute," which Iran was offering to do before the war and which can be reversed.

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