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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:38 am to TroutGuy
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:38 am to TroutGuy
quote:
Israel reportedly believes Iran is preparing a major surprise missile and drone attack.
Is it possible that Iran has reached the conclusion that Trump is so reluctant to resume military operations that Iran can go on the military offensive against the United States?
That would be a bold move.
3
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:56 am to Hobie101
quote:
Good morning!!
Haven’t checked in for a minute.
Are we still kicking arse with the war going exactly to plan?
We're still in a staring contest that guarantees mutual economic destruction in the long term.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:56 am to TBoy
quote:
quote:
Israel reportedly believes Iran is preparing a major surprise missile and drone attack.
Is it possible that Iran has reached the conclusion that Trump is so reluctant to resume military operations that Iran can go on the military offensive against the United States?
That would be a bold move.
Iran already attacked 2 US Navy ships not too long ago during the cease fire but were not successful.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 10:58 am to TBoy
quote:
Is it possible that Iran has reached the conclusion that Trump is so reluctant to resume military operations that Iran can go on the military offensive against the United States?
How would they? We’ve been told over and over they are decimated.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:08 am to DiamondDog
quote:
They’ve passed enough notes at this point to know if there will be a deal or not. Every day that passes weakens the resolve. I’m honestly shocked Trump has allowed it to stretch out this long.
Almost like he’s stalling because he has no clue about how to get us out of that mess….
I’ve been holding out hope that we just walk away, bomb TF out of them again for good measure, and declare victory.
But that clearly ain’t happening. The MIC/neocons got to Trump, and we’re now hip deep in ME Clusterf*ck #3.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:19 am to Sharlo
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The Islamic Republic’s oil lifeline is clogging up in the Persian Gulf.
As exports struggle under mounting maritime pressure, ageing tankers loaded with unsold crude are piling up around Kharg Island acting as floating storage because Iran is increasingly unable to move enough oil out.
That is extremely dangerous for the Islamic Republic.
Oil revenues are the backbone of regime survival. The longer crude sits trapped on deteriorating vessels, the more Tehran faces revenue collapse, budget strain, inflation, currency pressure, infrastructure bottlenecks, and rising environmental disaster risks in the Persian Gulf.
Many of the vessels are reportedly going dark (AIS off), while smaller and older tankers are being repurposed just to keep the system functioning.
Right now, this is a system under severe economic and logistical stress.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:48 am to BayouBengal51
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EU nations moved Friday toward imposing sanctions on Iranian officials and others involved in blocking the Strait of Hormuz, calling the blockade “contrary to international law.”
The bloc took a technical step to expand its existing Iran sanctions framework, allowing more individuals to be listed under the regime.
“The EU will now be able to introduce further restrictive measures in response to Iran's actions undermining the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” the European Council representing EU nations said.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 11:49 am to Sharlo
quote:
Almost like he’s stalling because he has no clue about how to get us out of that mess….
I think he's got a pretty good clue, he just doesn't like the answer/outcome
The current plan is obviously economic death by strangulation, hoping that Iran will eventually concede and give up the Uranium and stop attacking ships in the strait and allow full travel
If they don't voluntarily do this, then he's got no choice but to send in some type of ground force to extract the uranium and secure the strait. He can't say over and over his sole purpose to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, then leave the uranium inside their borders no matter where it's buried or how hard it is to reach. And bombing from the air doesn't seem to be a "permanent" solution, if it was Midnight Hammer would have made this whole thing a moot point
But a ground war will be a giant red mark against his legacy I don't think he's willing to accept. So round and round we go trying to make a deal.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:03 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
The current plan is obviously economic death by strangulation, hoping that Iran will eventually concede and give up the Uranium and stop attacking ships in the strait and allow full travel
This plan has a tremendous track record of success in Cuba. And Iraq. And North Korea.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:21 pm to BayouBengal51
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If tweet fails to load, click here. UAE seems to have taken a more dovish turn in recent days. They have a lot of influence on Israel too. 
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:23 pm to TroutGuy
quote:
Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker urges renewed strikes on Iran to fully destroy Tehran’s military capabilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz: “We are at a moment that will define President Trump’s legacy. His instincts have been to finish the job he started in Iran, but he is being ill advised to pursue a deal that would not be worth the paper it is written on. Our commander-in-chief needs to allow America's skilled armed forces to finish the destruction of Iran's conventional military capabilities and reopen the strait. Further pursuit of an agreement with Iran's Islamist regime risks a perception of weakness. We must finish what we started. It is past time for action.”
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:34 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
I think he's got a pretty good clue, he just doesn't like the answer/outcome
real dune golden path situation here
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:39 pm to TBoy
quote:
Is it possible that Iran has reached the conclusion that Trump is so reluctant to resume military operations that Iran can go on the military offensive against the United States?
Why shouldn’t they reach that conclusion?
Trump has given them a lot of extra time, with empty threats.
The price of gas is jumping, and people are getting restless, wanting this to end. Democrats in particular are wanting to shut all of this down.
Iran has been slowly escalating things with essentially no repercussions, why shouldn’t they feel that they can effect a big strike and get impetus to retreat?
Posted on 5/22/26 at 12:57 pm to TroutGuy
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:04 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
The current plan is obviously economic death by strangulation, hoping that Iran will eventually concede and give up the Uranium and stop attacking ships in the strait and allow full travel
Not the plan.
They are moving towards a coup from within the borders of Iran, with a little outside support.
The IRGC would never willingly do anything we want.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:31 pm to TroutGuy
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Ok, Iran has made it 100% clear they aren't giving up the nuclear dust, which is our key demand. Time to back up our threats or lose a good bit of our credibility, not just in this conflict but in others as well.This post was edited on 5/22/26 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:42 pm to Bronco11
Posted on 5/22/26 at 1:47 pm to omegaman66
quote:
Not the plan.
They are moving towards a coup from within the borders of Iran, with a little outside support.
The IRGC would never willingly do anything we want.
No, I think he’s correct. But, I think achieving victory via an economic war is unrealistic.
Just to put things in perspective, the average Palestinian income is $200/mo. vs $600/month for an Iranian. However, the median income for Iranians is less than $200/month, which is the result of a small ruling class that distributes the majority of proceeds amongst itself. 1/3 of the country already lives in abject pottery.
Consequently, you have the decision makers that are insulated from the economics for at least the near term. You have a military that is paid well relative to citizens that already practically living subsistence lifestyles.
The practical indicator won’t be economic collapse, it will be something humanitarian like plague or starvation. The real question is whether the US has the stomach to accept the optics of laying siege and starving a nation into surrender, like the Israelis are doing in Gaza? It seems apparent the IRGC doesn’t think it will.
Posted on 5/22/26 at 2:02 pm to TroutGuy
quote:
Iran Says 'No Deal' Will Materialize If US Insists On Enriched Uranium Handover
They all need to be turned in to cardboard, the sooner the better!
Posted on 5/22/26 at 2:03 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
The current plan is obviously economic death by strangulation, hoping that Iran will eventually concede and give up the Uranium and stop attacking ships in the strait and allow full travel
That obviously isn’t working, and as gas prices continue to rise the push to end all of this is going to escalate.
Iran has all of the cards right now. They’re seizing ships, attacking other countries with missiles/drones without repercussions, and know rising gas prices and upcoming midterm elections will push politicians to seek a deal.
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