re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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The conflict in the Middle East has gone too far.

My message to the US & Israel is that it’s high time to end the war – as human suffering deepens, civilian casualties mount & the global economic impact is increasingly devastating.

My message to Iran is to stop attacking their neighbors that are not parties to the conflict.

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Some counter-narrative thoughts to chew on.

1) The remnant regime knows its offensive capabilities are diminishing. Bluster and X posts can't change that reality.

2) The remnant regime sees the U.S. on course to reopen tanker traffic on its own military timeline...which is coming much sooner than later. Deals cut can also represent attempts to reopen traffic on the regime's terms ahead of the U.S. reopening traffic on its own terms. "Control" may already be shifting.

3) Trump has leverage to insist on the most important concessions up front in any ceasefire, i.e. nuclear.

4) An inability to reach an agreement in a first meeting need not preclude a second meeting one week later. Indeed, how many times have we seen the Iranian side need to consult and return days later? The president knows how to message this and manage the market through it for more time than this weekend.

5) Sometimes you need to take quick action to remove a bargaining chip from the table. At that point, your priority concessions are no longer priorities. Don't be surprised by surprises.

6) Expect the unexpected when you are not expecting it. The outcome of talks won't have anything to do with who the President sends to Pakistan. It has to do with Caine and Cooper's military evaluations and what the President wants to do next.

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I would like to know what Navy and Army the IRGC will be using to close The Bab al-Mandeb Strait? Do they think the Gulf States, particularly SA, waltz on over there and shut it down?

More empty posturing from a wounded and desperate animal is what that threat is.

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UAE Ambassador to the U.S. Yousef Al Otaiba on WSJ opinion:

Forty miles away, the U.A.E. stands on the front line of this conflict.

The U.A.E. is the argument Iran can’t win, the idea it can’t accept.

Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been degraded. Its proxies have been weakened. More needs to be done.

We are ready to join an international initiative to reopen the strait and keep it open.

The stronger our economic ties to America, the stronger both nations become.

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Yousef al-Otaiba, UAE Ambassador to the US: “A simple cease-fire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses Iran’s full range of threats: nuclear capabilities, missiles, drones, terror proxies and blockades of international sea lanes…We want Iran as a normal neighbor. It can be reclusive and even unwelcoming, but it can’t attack its neighbors, blockade international waters, or export extremism.”

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"American commanders and soldiers have fled and are hiding outside their bases. We are looking for them."
— Ebrahim Zolfaqari, Central Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters, today's message.

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