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re: North Carolina Dem voting lead now under 300K
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:01 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:01 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
This better continue.
You can't be down 300k going into election day this year. There aren't enough votes remaining.
If the number of voters/votes is the same as 2016, then there will be at least 2 million more votes. Around 200-400 thousand being cast a day, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats by tens of thousands on each one. This is with small amounts of mail in ballots still coming in favoring Democrats.
Democrats usually outnumber Republicans. If we see Republicans outnumber Democrats in any state, I would be shocked if it wasn’t at least 3 points red.
1
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:03 am to jvilletiger25
quote:
Proud to say I was part of cutting that lead yesterday!
My wife cutting it today and I’ll cut it tomorrow.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:05 am to HurricaneTiger
If you click on MAil In boxes only for 2020 ^ 2015 there was a huge uptick in absentees. Remember they need a witness notary for absentee mail in's.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:13 am to cajunangelle
Are we worried at all about cannibalization?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:13 am to igoringa
quote:
With NC, you have an interesting dynamic... there are more registered Ds than Rs, as there were in 2016 yet Trump carried the state. So Trump either overly dominated Independents or gets more D defections (ie 'old' registered democrats). Dems had 310K lead going into election day and still lost the state, so being south of that seems favorable, if all other variables hold.
I think there are a few interesting questions for which we have no answer yet: (1) Are all of the "new" Republicans (since 2016) really just "old" Democrats who traditionally voted R anyway, despite their party affiliation? If so, then party registration gains by R's are really somewhat meaningless because the number of VOTES are still the same. (2) Are the big (gross) number of Democrat early votes indicative of MORE D voters since 2016? Or is is appx the same amount of D voters from 2016, except they are just voting early this time?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:19 am to Alt26
quote:
I think there are a few interesting questions for which we have no answer yet: (1) Are all of the "new" Republicans (since 2016) really just "old" Democrats who traditionally voted R anyway, despite their party affiliation? If so, then party registration gains by R's are really somewhat meaningless because the number of VOTES are still the same. (2) Are the big (gross) number of Democrat early votes indicative of MORE D voters since 2016? Or is is appx the same amount of D voters from 2016, except they are just voting early this time?
Exactly. Everyone is making a lot of assumptions based on the early numbers but nobody really knows what this will mean for Nov. 3.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:25 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Exactly. Everyone is making a lot of assumptions based on the early numbers but nobody really knows what this will mean for Nov. 3.
And that is the sport of it all!
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:28 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:I would bet on this.
Or is is appx the same amount of D voters from 2016, except they are just voting early this time?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:32 am to Scruffy
If you look across the board, Democrats tripped over themselves to be the first to Vote by Mail and then have trailed off ever since. Meanwhile Republicans have been showing up to Early Vote in Person.
Ask yourself, if Democrats aren't showing up to Early Vote in Person then why would they show up on Election Day? I predict that Election Day voting will be 60-40 in Republican favor at the very least.
If that's the case then any state that has Biden tracking with Hillary, he is going to lose.
This will come down to PA folks. We all know it. That's what matters.
Ask yourself, if Democrats aren't showing up to Early Vote in Person then why would they show up on Election Day? I predict that Election Day voting will be 60-40 in Republican favor at the very least.
If that's the case then any state that has Biden tracking with Hillary, he is going to lose.
This will come down to PA folks. We all know it. That's what matters.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:33 am to Scruffy
quote:
I would bet on this.
Yup. I’ve been saying I think we’re seeing votes displaced from Election Day to early voting. Democrats have been pushing hard to vote early/by mail. I think their Election Day numbers are going to be lower than expected. Obviously I could be wrong, but
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:35 am to igoringa
quote:
Granted, a lot more ballots have been cast this year
You'd think that also favors Trump.
"a lot more ballots cast" could potentially explain why a larger early voting lead this time could still be overcome.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:36 am to KCT
quote:
Hell, there's probably already some white people in and around Philadelphia who are wary of going to vote.
Iowa doing their best this morning. Voting locations shut down due to "coronavirus".
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:37 am to blowmeauburn
quote:
Ask yourself, if Democrats aren't showing up to Early Vote in Person then why would they show up on Election Day? I predict that Election Day voting will be 60-40 in Republican favor at the very least.
And add in the fact that the Dems have demonized the gall and audacity of requiring people to vote on ED given Covid. They campaigned hard that ED voting was not safe.
I wonder if that will come back and bite them. D voters tend to be more nervous about Covid then anyone. Their leaders have told them in person voting is risky. The media is pumping the numbers as armageddon right now. Europe is shutting down.
I could be wrong, but this may really backfire on them.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:38 am to blowmeauburn
quote:Exactly.
if Democrats aren't showing up to Early Vote in Person then why would they show up on Election Day?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:47 am to blowmeauburn
quote:
Ask yourself, if Democrats aren't showing up to Early Vote in Person then why would they show up on Election Day?
I know a few people who are waiting for election day to vote because the lines are too long right now.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:49 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:The lines will likely be even longer then.
I know a few people who are waiting for election day to vote because the lines are too long right now.
That aside, you would still expect a decent sized portion to vote early relative to Election Day due to the trend of mail in and Covid concerns for Democrats.
I would expect larger in person early voting if they were going to come out in force on Election Day. We will see though.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 9:52 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:50 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
I know a few people who are waiting for election day to vote because the lines are too long right now.
Are they gonna say frick it when the line is just as long or longer?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:52 am to Scruffy
quote:
The lines will likely be even longer then.
Typically, yeah. Maybe not this year. That's what they are betting on at least.
I mean, look at Texas, NC, GA and Florida. Texas has almost surpassed it's entire 2016 turnout already (94%), NC & GA are in the 80s, Florida is near 80%.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 9:55 am to Alt26
Forbes published a poll stating that 60% of dems plan to vote early, mainly because the media has them scared shitless of covid. Only 30% or republicans polled responded similarly. We'll almost certainly see an uptick in voters, but we do virtually every cycle. Dems are predominantly shifting voter volume in this election.
If Trump is overperforming 16 in these early voting metrics, Biden supporters should be very worried.
If Trump is overperforming 16 in these early voting metrics, Biden supporters should be very worried.
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