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Message
North Carolina Dem voting lead now under 300K
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:42 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:42 am
NC Election site
in 2016 their lead was 310,000 going into election day. Granted, a lot more ballots have been cast this year.
in 2016 their lead was 310,000 going into election day. Granted, a lot more ballots have been cast this year.
13
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:43 am to igoringa
That is really good.
Now, Reps need to turnout on the 3rd.
Now, Reps need to turnout on the 3rd.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:44 am to igoringa
The D lead in Florida has dropped to 210,000 after the morning tally. From a 15-20 point advantage after the first count, to less than 3 today.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:44 am to igoringa
how do you think the non-affiliated will break? the other thing i see is the number of women voting early
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:45 am to HurricaneTiger
quote:
The D lead in Florida has dropped to 210,000 after the morning tally. From a 15-20 point advantage, to less than 3.
206,914 to be precise. A decrease of 38,998 in their lead from yesterday’s numbers.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:47 am to igoringa
Are you assuming that all of the Dems that have voted did so for Biden? What if 25% or more voted for Trump. That changes the narrative a lot going into Tuesday.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:47 am to vl100butch
quote:
how do you think the non-affiliated will break?
Likely for Trump.
quote:Which is good for predictive purposes.
the other thing i see is the number of women voting early
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:48 am to UFMatt
quote:Massively.
Are you assuming that all of the Dems that have voted did so for Biden? What if 25% or more voted for Trump. That changes the narrative a lot going into Tuesday.
I don’t think it will be 25%, but I bet it is in the teens, possibly upper-teens, with Trump losing single digit Rep support based on favor ability within the party being 94%.
If it is 25%, no amount of vote harvesting will matter.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 8:52 am
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:49 am to Bunta
quote:
206,914 to be precise. A decrease of 38,998 in their lead from yesterday’s numbers
Proud to say I was part of cutting that lead yesterday!
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:49 am to Bunta
quote:This better continue.
206,914 to be precise. A decrease of 38,998 in their lead from yesterday’s numbers.
You can't be down 300k going into election day this year. There aren't enough votes remaining.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:50 am to igoringa
Have never really followed early voting before. When you are giving numbers like in the OP is this based on party registration of the early voters correct. No state releases actual vote results early correct?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:50 am to Bunta
quote:
A decrease of 38,998 in their lead from yesterday’s numbers.
It decreased by 50 for each of the two days before as well. I might make a thread later today showing the differences in turnout from 2016 to compare, like I did with Nevada.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:51 am to igoringa
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:52 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
You can't be down 300k going into election day this year. There aren't enough votes remaining.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:54 am to igoringa
2 more votes in for Trump this morning
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:55 am to igoringa
Funny how it's the Democrats who like to talk about voter suppression, because I have a feeling that those bastards are going to pull out all the stops to suppress the voting process in key battleground states on election day.
Hell, there's probably already some white people in and around Philadelphia who are wary of going to vote.
Hell, there's probably already some white people in and around Philadelphia who are wary of going to vote.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:55 am to Bunta
quote:
206,914 to be precise
It just updated to 200,693.
Dems led EV by 96,450 going into 2016 election day. We have 3 full days left of EV, if we can clip 40k per day, it'd put Trump in a better spot than he was in 2016.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:57 am to gatorsimz
quote:If it continues, Biden has zero shot at FL.
Dems led EV by 96,450 going into 2016 election day. We have 3 full days left of EV, if we can clip 40k per day, it'd put Trump in a better spot than he was in 2016.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:57 am to vl100butch
quote:
how do you think the non-affiliated will break? the other thing i see is the number of women voting early
I wonder if soy boys are counted as women in these polls.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 8:57 am to elposter
quote:
Have never really followed early voting before. When you are giving numbers like in the OP is this based on party registration of the early voters correct. No state releases actual vote results early correct?
Correct no actual votes. We work with what we have.
States like NC and Florida provide pretty rich data of early votes by party registration and we compare year to year. Granted, a change in independents preferences or party rebellion add the heavy risk element into it all.
With NC, you have an interesting dynamic... there are more registered Ds than Rs, as there were in 2016 yet Trump carried the state. So Trump either overly dominated Independents or gets more D defections (ie 'old' registered democrats). Dems had 310K lead going into election day and still lost the state, so being south of that seems favorable, if all other variables hold.
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