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re: Non partisan topic - any real economic plan by anyone that addresses AI displacement?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:05 am to Powerman
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:05 am to Powerman
quote:
I don't think not having a plan at all is a good idea.
I understand the desire for a plan but honestly, I'm not sure ANYONE ALIVE would know how to devise one. It smacks of possibly being the ultimate "we gotta do something" scenario where no one actually knows what "something" to do.
quote:Yes. And when i'm in a cynical mood, I see catastrophe. HOWEVER, I can also easily imagine scenarios that completely offset all of our worries.
The speed and scale that this could potentially occur is unprecedented.
quote:Meh. If you have no idea what to do that would actually work, then, you're as likely to make shite worse as better.
Having no contingency plan is lazy and stupid
1
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:24 am to Grumpy Nemesis
I'm not saying you are compelled to implement a plan but there should be contingency plans in place.
Having no contingency plans in place is irresponsible and stupid
Having no contingency plans in place is irresponsible and stupid
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:32 am to Powerman
quote:
I'd have to imagine 5 to 10 years from now a ton of jobs will be replaced by AI.
As long as human input is still needed to generate prompts and vet the answers, there won't be a huge worker replacement. AI is great until it spits out a completely wrong answer based on poorly sourced data. The current capabilities have been oversold.
AI is only as good as the data it's fed and the data it's searching. It doesn't think and it's not able to create anything from scratch. People have a misconception that it's capable of independent thought. It's not. It can't anticipate what you want or need.
The generative AI stuff is cool but it's limited by rules and usually very shallow and surface level, if accurate at all.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:42 am to Powerman
Was there an economic plan when the mechanized agriculture replaced over 90% of agricultural labor? No, and we’re still dealing with the fallout in those communities over a century later.
Was there a plan when the assembly line and factories replaced artisans?
Was there a plan when automation replaced the factory workers?
Was there an economic plan when online shopping massacred brick and mortar retail?
These things aren’t really possible to plan for. What must be done is ensuring a legal, regulatory, and entrepreneurial environment that allows people to continuously be inventing new ideas, new businesses, and creating new industries to employ people. The problem is that people are being crushed by debt, taxes, and regulations so that small businesses can’t afford to get off the ground.
Innovation is being stifled by technological cartels who identify disruptive technologies and buy them to shelf them to protect their existing business model.
Crony capitalism is destroying the market’s natural ability to innovate its way into creating new industries.
The pool of robber barons who control the global economy has simply gotten too small for their to be any motivation for them to compete, and too powerful to effectively police.
The planet has been regulatory captured…all according to plan.
Was there a plan when the assembly line and factories replaced artisans?
Was there a plan when automation replaced the factory workers?
Was there an economic plan when online shopping massacred brick and mortar retail?
These things aren’t really possible to plan for. What must be done is ensuring a legal, regulatory, and entrepreneurial environment that allows people to continuously be inventing new ideas, new businesses, and creating new industries to employ people. The problem is that people are being crushed by debt, taxes, and regulations so that small businesses can’t afford to get off the ground.
Innovation is being stifled by technological cartels who identify disruptive technologies and buy them to shelf them to protect their existing business model.
Crony capitalism is destroying the market’s natural ability to innovate its way into creating new industries.
The pool of robber barons who control the global economy has simply gotten too small for their to be any motivation for them to compete, and too powerful to effectively police.
The planet has been regulatory captured…all according to plan.
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 12:43 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 12:57 am to kingbob
Difference with those examples is the speed and scale appear to be different this time
We're talking about possibly every white collar jobs being obsolete within a couple years
Not one sector that can transition to another sector.
We're talking about possibly every white collar jobs being obsolete within a couple years
Not one sector that can transition to another sector.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:17 am to Powerman
quote:
We're talking about possibly every white collar jobs being obsolete within a couple years
no
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:27 am to Powerman
I work in AI and can attest that the scope, scale and timeline in relation to job replacement are all concerning. I expect this to not be a 100 year problem, but more like <20 years until we see massive job market cuts.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:32 am to The Pirate King
quote:
quote:We're talking about possibly every white collar jobs being obsolete within a couple years
no
Correct, because there must be a human in the loop. But when you only need 1 worker for every 10…
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 6:32 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:38 am to Powerman
Deportation?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:38 am to anchor_down
quote:
But when you only need 1 worker for every 10…
For every 10 what?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:44 am to Powerman
I will retire in just a few years. I say this not because I do not care about the topic. I say this because for my entire working career, as well as long before, people have been talking about machines taking over the entire workforce. Hell, a really popular sci-fi series was based on those fears.
Keep worrying.
Keep worrying.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:46 am to Mo Jeaux
1 worker to verify the output of AI that is replacing the job performed by 10 previous workers doing the same job.
The only thing I’m saying right now is to encourage your kids away from accounting jobs.
And I don’t only mean CPA/AP/AR accounting. Not GAAP accounting. “Accounting” in the definition of “I check spreadsheets and databases for numbers and forward an answer to my boss.”
If there is a data signal to be interpreted, corporations will digitize the signal capture and use AI to analyze it. At a startling rate of replacement.
Edit: let’s just pretend I used the word “analyst” up above instead of accounting.
The only thing I’m saying right now is to encourage your kids away from accounting jobs.
And I don’t only mean CPA/AP/AR accounting. Not GAAP accounting. “Accounting” in the definition of “I check spreadsheets and databases for numbers and forward an answer to my boss.”
If there is a data signal to be interpreted, corporations will digitize the signal capture and use AI to analyze it. At a startling rate of replacement.
Edit: let’s just pretend I used the word “analyst” up above instead of accounting.
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 7:42 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:48 am to Powerman
quote:
Although some companies are having remorse and saying they acted too quickly
Which companies have said this and what type of jobs?
Posted on 5/27/25 at 6:50 am to UtahCajun
Creative content is imagination let loose. Engineering and science is imagination studied and reproduced.
The future might not be exactly like the authors write it up, but to not heed it as a warning is perilous.
I’m glad you’re set to retire peacefully UtahBaw.
The future might not be exactly like the authors write it up, but to not heed it as a warning is perilous.
I’m glad you’re set to retire peacefully UtahBaw.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:13 am to Powerman
As to the topic at hand, moving on from the possibles and probables, I think the solution has to come from a combination of the government and private entities.
Probably a massive corporate AI tax on new profit margins to fund UBI. Or some sort of return to pensions at scale, incentivized by the government for corporations to replace a percentage of the income of the employees they are removing via efficiency.
Society needs to find the right incentive for big businesses, but I don’t know what it is.
Probably a massive corporate AI tax on new profit margins to fund UBI. Or some sort of return to pensions at scale, incentivized by the government for corporations to replace a percentage of the income of the employees they are removing via efficiency.
Society needs to find the right incentive for big businesses, but I don’t know what it is.
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 7:15 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:20 am to anchor_down
quote:
And I don’t only mean CPA/AP/AR accounting. Not GAAP accounting. “Accounting” in the definition of “I check spreadsheets and databases for numbers and forward an answer to my boss.”
Accounting is a bit more complicated than your simplified description here.
Small example: How is the AI going to know if a transaction from a credit card statement that just says "Wal Mart" $175 is business or personal?
Accounting is filled with judgment and especially on the tax side how aggressive or not to be in taking a position.
What the hell do you mean by "CPA accounting"? That's a phrase only a person who is clueless about accounting would use.
How will the AI interface with the tax payer and will the tax payer holy trust the AI to do what it wants?
You are also discounting the level of automation that has been going on in the accounting profession for decades and the use of AI and AI adjacent products.
Not saying AI is not going to wreck havoc on accounting but to pretend like the robots can just do all the accounting perfectly without fricking up...I'm pressing X to doubt as of now.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:28 am to jclem11
To be precise, “accounting” was a stand-in phrase that I should have really thought for more than 2 minutes about before using it. I was fishing for a better way to describe “desk jockey” and didn’t want to use the term “accountant”.
What I really meant was “analyst,” which could be an accountant, a medical billing coder, a supply chain middle manager, etc…
You are right that there are MANY judgment calls to make as an accountant. What happens when you pare down the time worked into only judgment calls, instead of having to deal with all the other slow, inefficient work that an accountant does throughout a day? When AI analytics engines handle 90% of a job, leaving a human to parse the tough stuff? Do you think firms, companies and the government will keep as many accountants on staff?
Job replacement won’t be 100%, I strongly doubt that. Hell, 90% reduction across the board is pretty extreme too - I use the 1:10 analogy because we are using that figure in two current project estimates.
But let’s talk about just 50% reduction for now. If 1 employee can do the job of 2, what do you think the decision becomes for an entity interested in reducing labor spend?
What I really meant was “analyst,” which could be an accountant, a medical billing coder, a supply chain middle manager, etc…
You are right that there are MANY judgment calls to make as an accountant. What happens when you pare down the time worked into only judgment calls, instead of having to deal with all the other slow, inefficient work that an accountant does throughout a day? When AI analytics engines handle 90% of a job, leaving a human to parse the tough stuff? Do you think firms, companies and the government will keep as many accountants on staff?
Job replacement won’t be 100%, I strongly doubt that. Hell, 90% reduction across the board is pretty extreme too - I use the 1:10 analogy because we are using that figure in two current project estimates.
But let’s talk about just 50% reduction for now. If 1 employee can do the job of 2, what do you think the decision becomes for an entity interested in reducing labor spend?
This post was edited on 5/27/25 at 7:36 am
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:33 am to AaronDeTiger
quote:
Scenario: Sarah, a warehouse worker earning $40,000/year, faces job loss due to an AI robot that saves her employer $30,000 annually. Under Eric Weinstein’s Coasian rights framework, Sarah holds a tradable "job right," forcing the company to negotiate with her before automating her role. Bargaining Process: The company offers Sarah $20,000 to relinquish her right. She counters with $50,000 for a year’s salary and retraining. After back-and-forth, they settle on $35,000, including health insurance, allowing the company to automate. Possible Outcomes: 1. Buyout Agreement: Sarah accepts $35,000, leaves, and retrains for a $38,000/year job. The company nets $5,000 in savings after the payout. 2. Partial Automation with Retraining: Sarah stays part-time at $20,000/year, gets $15,000 for retraining, and assists with robots. The company saves $5,000 versus her full salary. 3. Sarah Sells Her Right: Sarah sells her job right to a third party for $40,000. The buyer negotiates $45,000 from the company, profiting $5,000. The company automates after paying.
This is some pie in the sky bullshite
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:43 am to Powerman
AI will always need a babysitter.
Posted on 5/27/25 at 7:45 am to SippyCup
quote:
AI will always need a babysitter.
But will it need 5 babysitters?
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