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Started By
Message
re: Nate Silver’s latest election model update has Kamala Harris winning for the first time
Posted on 8/4/24 at 6:58 pm to supatigah
Posted on 8/4/24 at 6:58 pm to supatigah
quote:
based on what? polls?
Elections, polls, and whatever other actual data exists out there to judge.
quote:
kemp literally rolled over and gave the state TWO incredibly shitty Dem US Senators
Wait what? Those were Trump-adjacent options.
Kemp supporter better options in both primaries, IIRC.
quote:
and an embarrassing case against a former POTUS
What case? You mean a local prosecution by an elected DEM state attorney in a DEM area? How is that on Kemp?
quote:
love Trump or hate him, pretty much all of this is a terrible look for a “popular” GOP Gov in a battleground state
You're associating Trump-adjacent Senatorial candidates and a DEM local prosecutor with Kemp. Stretch Armstrong couldn't accomplish this "look"
2
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:00 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
He debated Biden way too early. Any candidate can beat Trump other than Biden.
How about DeSantis?
This post was edited on 8/4/24 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:01 pm to Drewbie
quote:
Wake me up when Kamala reaches 63% like Hillary did.
It's not about that.
It's about the narrative and forced perception that the polls are tight and "within the margin of error" so that the targeted fraud and the ultimate Harris "win" is easier for the mainstream to pull off and cover up.
The closer the general ignorant public believes that the race is, the more likely they are to believe the fraudulent outcome. It's not about real polls any more.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:01 pm to _Hurricane_
quote:
I’ll never understand the whole “Trump is the only Republican who can win” narrative. Is it because we haven’t had the opportunity to test that theory at the national level since 2012?
Did you miss the GOP primary, or do you just not view that as a national election?
quote:
I mean I like Trump but it’s clear to anyone who isn’t blind that there are other Republicans who would have a better shot at winning over independents against a radical like Kamala. Just such a dumb argument I see repeated over and over.
Anyone who can't win the GOP primary obviously cannot win the general election.
This post was edited on 8/4/24 at 7:05 pm
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:02 pm to stout
Imaging that… A pollster who gets paid to do more polls, has an outlier poll, showing the race dramatically different than all other polls. Maybe it’s because one side wants that to be true. And will continue to pay said pollster for such Poll results.
Is that even a possibility in the weak minded on this site?
Is that even a possibility in the weak minded on this site?
This post was edited on 8/4/24 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:02 pm to TigerAxeOK
quote:
It's about the narrative and forced perception that the polls are tight and "within the margin of error" so that the targeted fraud and the ultimate Harris "win" is easier for the mainstream to pull off and cover up.
The closer the general ignorant public believes that the race is, the more likely they are to believe the fraudulent outcome. It's not about real polls any more.
So as soon as Trump gets a little behind, we're starting with election fraud all over again?
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:03 pm to stout
Is that Nate Silver or 538?
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:04 pm to stout
Again, silver uses biased polling numbers to make predictions. His model is inherently flawed. This actually means Trump has about a 7-8% lead.
If it gets to 3-4%, they can steal it.
If it gets to 3-4%, they can steal it.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
His campaign is full of yes men that tell him what he wants to hear. I know this first hand. He thinks he is winning by miles and can basically do anything he wants.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:07 pm to stout
I told all the chest beaters this was going to happen. There was little doubt in my mind that if they replaced Biden, the new candidate would soon take the polling lead. That’s the honeymoon momentum.
Give it time. Trump has to work on her negatives. It should be easy to do it. And he can’t get cocky and slip off the restraining leash. If he starts shooting his mouth off Kamala will win in a walk.
Give it time. Trump has to work on her negatives. It should be easy to do it. And he can’t get cocky and slip off the restraining leash. If he starts shooting his mouth off Kamala will win in a walk.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:07 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Trump needs to get his stuff together. He's turning back into bad Trump and it is hurting him
Where did the bad man touch you? I mean seriously what has he done to lose 15% he won a debate, got shot in the face, and goods are at an insane rate. But dumbasses like you, rah he was mean to a mean to me.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:09 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:I’ll make a deal with you.
If I were trolling, I wouldn't be asking questions blinded people refuse to answer over and over again.
I’ll go back through the thread and address your questions that didn’t get answered. And you address the main 80% of my last post that you ignored
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
No. The fact that there was no fight is how things are.
We’re going round and round here.
You keep saying “but there was no fight!”
I’m saying that’s not how Trump sees it and that’s the reality on the ground that we are dealing with.
You keep arguing for how Trump should be, how he should perceive and respond, not for how he is.
Now, there is a nonstop discussion for how Trump is and that will continue probably for eternity.
More important to me is the discussion not on how Trump responds to slights or insults (and it was an insult, that’s obvious; your argument is that he should have ignored it because it’s relatively meaningless in the big scheme of events) but rather on the potential reality of some supposed Republicans helping Kamala and the Democrats to control this country at this point in history because they didn’t like that he spoke negatively of Kemp.
That, to me, is the really interesting reality and really speaks to a particular emotional state of mind. Some people question Trump’s decisions on things he says…but..whew…those latter decisions by those supposed Republicans voting really are something to behold.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:13 pm to NashvilleTider
quote:
His campaign is full of yes men that tell him what he wants to hear. I know this first hand. He thinks he is winning by miles and can basically do anything he wants.
If you have an in with his campaign, convince them to run ads featuring Black men whose civil rights she violated.
It'll make Black voters hate her and it will guilt white cat ladies about supporting a slave trader.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:13 pm to SDVTiger
He isn't wrong. Maybe Trump has some plan here, but the attack on the POS' in GA was not a good idea. They are terrible, but go after them from the oval office.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
a truly popular Gov makes public statements and declares positions on things that are right without fear because he has the people behind him, Kemp is a marshmallow because he is bought and paid for.
just because Atlanta media is not attacking him now, doesnt mean he is popular. Atlanta media had no problem backing Abrams and attacking Kemp until it became obvious she wasnt going to win.
he said nothing against Warnock, nothing against Ossof, he said nothing against Willis, he just sat there because he knows he needed Atlanta’s Pol machine to get out of the way for him to win
you think the Gov’s office and the AG didnt know about Willis and her BS? about Warnock’s DV case? yet he said nothing about it, why is that?
so he took the easy way out, got re-elected and is repaying his debt to the GA Dem Machine
the GA GOP running shitty Senate candidates makes Kemp’s passive stance understandable, but certainly not defensible if he is as popular as you think he is
you are a lawyer that spends a fair amount of time in the parish courthouse so you know the reality of what people in the know in gov and politics actually know versus what they and others say in the media.
kemp doesnt like trump, trump doesnt like kemp, so what?
just because Atlanta media is not attacking him now, doesnt mean he is popular. Atlanta media had no problem backing Abrams and attacking Kemp until it became obvious she wasnt going to win.
he said nothing against Warnock, nothing against Ossof, he said nothing against Willis, he just sat there because he knows he needed Atlanta’s Pol machine to get out of the way for him to win
you think the Gov’s office and the AG didnt know about Willis and her BS? about Warnock’s DV case? yet he said nothing about it, why is that?
so he took the easy way out, got re-elected and is repaying his debt to the GA Dem Machine
the GA GOP running shitty Senate candidates makes Kemp’s passive stance understandable, but certainly not defensible if he is as popular as you think he is
you are a lawyer that spends a fair amount of time in the parish courthouse so you know the reality of what people in the know in gov and politics actually know versus what they and others say in the media.
kemp doesnt like trump, trump doesnt like kemp, so what?
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:15 pm to stout
Trump finally had good vibes after the assassination attempt and blew it all with his crooked Joe Biden schtick when Biden dropped out. Showed this whole unity thing was a sham.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:16 pm to Scruffy
quote:
People will act like this is fake
Yep. And then if Trump loses it will be because of "massive cheating." Trump's bad campaigning isn't real and neither is his loss (if he loses).
quote:
This was a pretty straightforward and easy situation for Trump to win.
That I disagree with. It would have been if Biden had remained the nominee AND the media had continued to bash him. Otherwise, it was going to be a dogfight no matter what.
quote:
His antics are fricking it up and I am starting to believe he is doing it on purpose.
They certainly aren't helping. i don't believe he's doing it on purpose, though. I just don't think he can control himself if he's feels like he's been insulted. He's too easy to control.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:19 pm to supatigah
quote:What is lost on you is that he ALREADY has that support.
gaining more support from the people inside GA that dislike Kemp of course
He doesn’t need to gain there.
Posted on 8/4/24 at 7:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Trump needs to get his stuff together. He's turning back into bad Trump and it is hurting him
SFP needs to get his stuff together. He's still shitty SFP and its hurting the whole board
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