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I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
23952 posts

More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
From Barrons today:

quote:

Increased American sales to China would likely mean a loss of market share for competing nations. As U.S. producers step up output, excess supplies from other countries could put downward pressure on prices, which are set in global commodity markets.

Neither is the trade deal likely to affect the overall U.S. trade balance or gross domestic product significantly, contrary to administration claims. A quick primer on national income accounting from J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, demonstrates as much.

Skipping over the algebra, the current-account deficit (basically the trade deficit) is equal to the difference between savings minus investment, with the shortfall being funded by a surplus in the capital account. So, to reduce the current account means increasing savings, relative to investment. But “many hope the easing of trade policy uncertainty should help increase investment, leaning against the argument the current-account deficit will narrow as a result of this deal,” Feroli writes.


To keep the U.S. current account unchanged amid a boost in exports would require an increase in the dollar’s real exchange rate. While U.S. producers selling to China would benefit, those that supply non-Chinese markets would lose out, he adds.


Coincident with the phase-one pact, Washington dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator. “The U.S. Treasury made a purely political point in 2019 of accusing the Chinese of currency manipulation, and the agreement corrects nothing that was out of order before,” veteran economist George Magnus points out. “The yuan does not float freely, and maybe never will, but it is neither over- nor undervalued by a significant margin.”

The latest Treasury International Capital data released late Thursday contradicts the assertion that Beijing has been deliberately driving down the yuan, which it would do by buying dollar assets. Rather, China sold more than $120 billion of U.S. Treasury securities in the first 11 months of 2019, which would tend to prop up its currency. Those sales put China on pace for the second-largest annual sales of Treasuries since 2016, when it sold $155 billion, and when Barron’s explained why Trump was wrong about Chinese currency manipulation.

So, was the trade deal worth the cost in the slowing of global growth?
“Like most things, the answer is likely heavily influenced by political ideology,” contends Stephen Pavlick, a Washington policy analyst at Renaissance Macro Research.


Link to the entire article

I say posting this will result in zero intelligent counter arguments to the author of the article and at least 100 down votes.
This post was edited on 1/19 at 9:22 pm


Smeg
Member since Aug 2018
3845 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
1st down vote/ didn't read


beerJeep
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
23767 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
I b chinaman I play joke I put peepee in your coke


geauxtigers87
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
NOLA
Member since Mar 2011
19977 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


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162
HailHailtoMichigan!
LSU Fan
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
60285 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
Chinese bot

Chinese shill

Chinese agent gonna die on this hill!


Dale51
Member since Oct 2016
32378 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
"Well...thats just, like, their opinion, man"


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111
Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi TX
Member since Jan 2004
145086 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

Chinese bot

Chinese shill

Chinese agent gonna die on this hill!



You realize that all of you that respond in such fashion without reading are the real robots?

Have some self awareness you morons


ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
77565 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
One
Trick
Pony


simonizer
LSU Fan
no
Member since Oct 2008
1309 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
i hope you get 1000 downvotes


loogaroo
LSU Fan
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
7361 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

kipping over the algebra, the current-account deficit (basically the trade deficit) is equal to the difference between savings minus investment, with the shortfall being funded by a surplus in the capital account. So, to reduce the current account means increasing savings, relative to investment. But “many hope the easing of trade policy uncertainty should help increase investment, leaning against the argument the current-account deficit will narrow as a result of this deal,” Feroli writes.


Ok ok...why is this bad?


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61
Kafka
USA Fan
I am the moral conscience of TD
Member since Jul 2007
105989 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

You realize that all of you that respond in such fashion without reading are the real robots?

Have some self awareness you morons
tl;dr


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81
ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
77565 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear

Full disclosure.

Now that I know you are 100% incapable of actual analysis and are basically a regurgitator, I don't think I've actually read one of your posts past like the first 3 lines in months.

I suspect I'm not alone.

So, save your effort.


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202
Tiger985
Member since Nov 2006
2664 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
The article is full of "coulds" and "mights".

A worthless opinion by people who have been wrong more than they have been right.

Trust Trump, he's a winner.

Downvoted!


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151
ShortyRob
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2008
77565 posts
 Online 

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

You realize that all of you that respond in such fashion without reading are the real robots?


Meh

One can earn a certain type of response over time.

Call it like the boy you cried wolf.

He's at the point now where he could post the cure for cancer and no one would care.


beerJeep
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
23767 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

You realize that all of you that respond in such fashion without reading are the real robots?

Have some self awareness you morons


What’s wrong power man? Can’t pick up on sarcasm?


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43
Buckeye Backer
Ohio State Fan
Columbus, Ohio
Member since Aug 2009
6678 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
If you come out against the new trade deals, then you are/were for the status quo which has been disasterous for America...end of debate.



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71
artisticsavant
Houston Astros Fan
Member since Mar 2017
1642 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
Instead of attacking any potential readers of the article or this thread, why not offer some sign of intelligence yourself instead of posting an article with no actual thought of your own?


ELVIS U
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2007
6768 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
Trade deal doesn't matter. The Chinese will cheat and not follow it anyway. It appears to be a win right now so it is a win.


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20
Jorts 'R Us
Wake Forest Fan
Member since Aug 2013
11466 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

I say posting this will result in zero intelligent counter arguments to the author of the article and at least 100 down votes.


100? Why so conservative?


I B Freeman
Member since Oct 2009
23952 posts

re: More analayis of the trade deal most here will not want to read or hear
quote:

I say posting this will result in zero intelligent counter arguments to the author of the article and at least 100 down votes.



100% correct thus far.


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