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re: Model: 2025 tariffs would result in -$3,800 per household, GDP shrinks by 0.8% over decade

Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:00 pm to
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85416 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:00 pm to
Winter of death is coming.


Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
21751 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

I'm skeptical of the numbers also. One thing is for sure though. There are a lot more finance bros that think this is a shite sandwich than a good idea.

Finance bros wouldn't consider all that goes into a "strategy" like this. And depending on the finance bro, they can also have trouble considering more than a few variables at a time.

quote:

I'm not a betting man but I don't like relying on the idea that Trump is right and pretty much everyone else is wrong.

This doesn't bother me much given every single thing people are freaking out about over the first few months of this Trump term are things both sides have advocated for in the past - the border/deportations, trade/tariffs, and DOGE. There's some truth to - Trump could cure cancer and about 30% of this country would lose their shite over it.

Lastly, I think this is a dynamic process. I'll be surprised if we see the trade war everyone is freaking out about.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
41746 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:02 pm to
quote:

There's some truth to - Trump could cure cancer and about 30% of this country would lose their shite over it.


Probably closer to 50%.

You can’t leave out the TDS riddled RINOs.
This post was edited on 4/3/25 at 4:02 pm
Posted by Jack Carter
Member since Sep 2018
12200 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:02 pm to
They should go to prison if their model is wrong.
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
27299 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:02 pm to
So a lower class or lower middle class person will have the equivalent of an entire paycheck from his year taken by Trump's tariff tax.

So much for voting for your economic betterment.
Posted by RollTide4547
Member since Dec 2024
2838 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Is that like the 9 billion death Covid prediction model? You know, the models used to support lockdowns.
Or the models that said we'd all freeze to death from global cooling in the 70's, we'd die of mass starvation in the 80's, we're going to burn up due to global warming in the 90's, 20 years ago we only had 10 years to live due to climate change....
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
293512 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

lower class or lower middle class person will have the equivalent of an entire paycheck from his year taken by Trump's tariff tax.
. Tariffs are a gift to BigCorp.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
464606 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

This doesn't bother me much given every single thing people are freaking out about over the first few months of this Trump term are things both sides have advocated for in the past -

The how is important.

Like decreasing government. Doing this properly and orderly and giving time for everything to react is much different than the hurricane of executive fiat (without full authority) we saw, especially when combined with the online promotions of incomplete data.

These tariffs are something else. Even people who support the concept of tariffs have posted this rollout and the bait and switch causing chaos isn't what they voted for.
Posted by JimEverett
Member since May 2020
1872 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:05 pm to
Sometimes the idea seema to be to completely get rid of the trade deficit.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
21832 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:10 pm to
Lol, we had much worse than that from living under the Biden administration
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
170362 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

I'll be surprised if we see the trade war everyone is freaking out about

We just started it buddy

And are warning others not to retaliate

No one likes being bullied around and these other nations aren't going to take it on the chin

There is hope that we can realize more amicable trade agreements but make no mistake the war is here and Trump started it
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
464606 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Sometimes the idea seema to be to completely get rid of the trade deficit.

Which is insane
Posted by RollTide4547
Member since Dec 2024
2838 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

Tariffs are a gift to BigCorp.
Really now. I'm seeing 3 Trillion plus in foreign investment coming into the country by companies who want to avoid the tariffs by making products here. Those jobs here (the ones that weren't coming back), they will employee American workers. I'll take the investment and new American factory jobs.
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
9714 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

I'd like to see this math.


These findings aren't far off from what I've posted. Below is a study signed off on by roughly 30 trade organizations. It is strictly about the fallout from a fee we're going to charge any Chinese (and possibly any foreign nation) built or operated vessel making a port call. It could get ugly and industries are sounding the alarm.

tradepartnership.com
Posted by RollTide4547
Member since Dec 2024
2838 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

Doing this properly and orderly
Always about the "process" with you libs. It's not possible to hate you enough.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
464606 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Always about the "process" with you libs.

I wouldn't know. I'm not a lib.

quote:

It's not possible to hate you enough.

Apparently you don't know who I am
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
170362 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Those jobs here (the ones that weren't coming back)

People on the right butcher the context of this quote as bad as people on the left misconstrue the "fine people on both sides" quote.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92735 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

consumer loss of $3,800 in


Posted by Blutarsky
112th Congress
Member since Jan 2004
11726 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:14 pm to
Now do the transitory inflation..
Posted by RollTide4547
Member since Dec 2024
2838 posts
Posted on 4/3/25 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

I'm not a lib.
To not be a lib, you sure act like a pompous, pretentious, condescending, arrogant, know-it-all smug lib. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and acts like a duck I call it a duck.

quote:

Apparently you don't know who I am
Oh yes I do. You're Judge Mathis's lawyer.
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