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Message
Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July '23
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:32 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:32 am
quote:
It's officially Fed day.
Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today.
In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one.
If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994.
However, it's a particularly unusual time right now.
Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates.
Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Posting for SVD just in case
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:33 am to stout
quote:
Posting for SVD just in case
What were the cut promises for 2025? 2%?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:35 am to SlowFlowPro
There were three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in 2025
People think the Fed could wipe all of that out as early as December of this year.
People think the Fed could wipe all of that out as early as December of this year.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:35 am to stout
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:37 am to stout
quote:
Posting for SVD just in case
LOL
This rate hike that’s coming may finally push him over the edge.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:39 am to stout
This will stop the price of oil rising!
I dont understand the celebration of this
We should be getting a .5 cut
I dont understand the celebration of this
We should be getting a .5 cut
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:43 am to SDVTiger
quote:
This will stop the price of oil rising!
Only oil prices are driving CPI?
How are oil prices driving employment? It's not oilfield workers because 98% of new jobs went to women.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:44 am to SDVTiger
No, a full 1 point
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:47 am to stout
And portfolio management fees and shelter
A hike will stop those also
A hike will stop those also
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:48 am to stout
quote:
98% of new jobs went to women.
Did anyone ever fact check that. It just seems statistically impossible, but who knows?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:49 am to stout
I think we may get a shock and a Hold
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:51 am to stout
Announcement is at 1pm, over/under on a Trump mean girl tweet about Walsh by 130pm 
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:52 am to Robcrzy
quote:
I think we may get a shock and a Hold
I actually think so too but only because I imagine Trump and Bessent are putting pressure on Warsh behind the scenes
Bessent may punch Warsh like he did Pulte
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:58 am to stout
Trump will fire the Fed chairman because of his disloyalty.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:59 am to stout
Dropping rates would spur a housing boom, which would in turn give the economy a positive jolt. Cant have any of that so theyre gonna raise rates and pretend their actions are going to matter in any way whatsoever with regards to inflationary impact.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:59 am to SDVTiger
Who is celebrating?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:01 am to stout
quote:
There were three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in 2025
People think the Fed could wipe all of that out as early as December of this year.
An estimated deficit of ~$2T will do that.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:02 am to Tigersforthee
quote:
Dropping rates would spur a housing boom
At most they would only cut rates .25bps at a time. Nothing that will cause a sudden housing boom
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:04 am to stout
Do we think we would be better off if Congress or the treasury was in charge of monetary policy?
Our dollar is cooked.
Might have to justify high oil prices as the petro dollar needs the trading.
Our dollar is cooked.
Might have to justify high oil prices as the petro dollar needs the trading.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:09 am to BamaCoaster
quote:
Do we think we would be better off if Congress or the treasury was in charge of monetary policy?
That's a good question but the only real fix would have to come from some sort of balanced budget amendment (even if it's just that Congress must get spending approval from the Treasury under x circumstances).
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