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re: Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July '23

Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:09 am to
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
17002 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:09 am to
Mid-terms and get Trump/MAGA time. Not surprising.
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
17002 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:10 am to
quote:

I dont understand the celebration of this



It's a muh Trump "L." That's the celebration of it by the usual TDS nerds.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
100389 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:10 am to
quote:

Who is celebrating?


The money board tards
Posted by BTROleMisser
Murica'
Member since Nov 2017
17002 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Who is celebrating?


TDS nerds like you.
Posted by Juan Betanzos
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2005
4593 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:12 am to
The FED is evil, and should've never been created.
Posted by TDTOM
Member since Jan 2021
26125 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:13 am to
quote:

The money board


That place is shite compared to what it used to be.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
100389 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:15 am to
quote:

That place is shite compared to what it used to be


They have the worst TDS of any board
Posted by BestBanker
Member since Nov 2011
19790 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:15 am to
Prior to the rate hike in july of 2023, the inflation rate was above 5% LINK.

We are currently at a 3.4% rate of inflation LINK. Draw your own conclusions.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
100389 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:36 am to
quote:

Prior to the rate hike in july of 2023, the inflation rate was above 5% LINK.

We are currently at a 3.4% rate of inflation LINK. Draw your own conclusions.


Exactly. Odds just drop to 90%! What does it mean
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
60713 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:40 am to
The fed rate is currently an entire point lower than the 50 year average. People forget that the rates during Covid were ALL-TIME lows. On par with 1980.
This post was edited on 9/16/26 at 10:41 am
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
60713 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:43 am to
quote:

inflationary impact.


Inflation is also below the 50 year average. People are panicking over nothing.
Posted by Tigersforthee
Member since Dec 2025
251 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:13 am to
You're correct that .25 wouldn't cause a boom but you can't dispute a significant cut of, say, 1% would have an immediate impact which they absolutely wont allow to happen. They'd rather tilt at inflation windmills instead.
Posted by hogcard1964
Alabama
Member since Jan 2017
21973 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:16 am to
quote:

The FED is evil, and should've never been created.


Trump busted his arse for Warsh with the understanding rates would be substantially cut. He's not going to raise them. They may hold for three months, but they have to drop. ....significantly
Posted by Rip Torner
Member since Jul 2023
3528 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:16 am to
How excited are you at the possibility of young homeowners not being able to afford a home? It will do nothing to fuel and food prices. I would hate to know that I was so emotional about Trump that I took glee in the misfortune of others, but then again you have become a hysterical middle aged woman
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
60713 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:17 am to
quote:

but they have to drop. ....significantly


Why? They are a full point below the 50-years average.
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129923 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:20 am to
Where are they at versus the 100 year average?
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
60713 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Where are they at versus the 100 year average?


A full point below. (Well…. .97)
Posted by BestBanker
Member since Nov 2011
19790 posts
Posted on 9/16/26 at 11:39 am to
Because I'm a simple man, my thoughts are that banks want to profit from the economic growth and as Warsh has said, are reactive to good news. Economy is strong. Banks want more, and competitively speaking, want to attract more dollars into their balance sheets for fractional investing. Which goes against my thoughts that in a growing economy, businesses charge more for products and services, which in turn can create higher profits for investing. But then, if money is not flowing into banking but rather asset purchases, it would then prove that bank isn't maximizing it's profit motives?

Rising rates slow borrowing. Deposits increase.

The fed gives themselves a 6% dividend. Must asset value increase to create a larger dollar payout with that fixed dividend? And I could be absolutely wrong in my simple assumptions.
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