re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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That isn't accurate.

They tried in '08 and NATO itself actually said they would become members but did not grant them MAP.

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Over 60% of the public at best was against joining NATO until after Feb 2022

They had been in the Partnership for Peace with NATO just like Russia. That is as far as it went.

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I wasn't aware that the Ukrainians have claimed to cut the bridge before. I was aware they had claimed that they were working on cutting the bridge, and that it was a goal - something that this post actually claims rather than they have actually done it

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Yes they have claimed it on X a lot in the last year. It’s to the point where even a pro Ukrainian person like me is like really come on man.

But the section between Mariupol and Berdyansk as well as Berdyansk and Melitopol has been within artillery range and drone range of the Ukrainian front lines since late spring. So the main highways (H20 and M14) and railways might not be completely cut but they are significantly limited in what they can safely deliver.

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I don't know if this map is accurate, but let's for the sake of this discussion, say that it is. If so, I see actual significant changes in territory over the last month, something the Russians haven't achieved in almost four years of trying. If the highlighted green portion of that map is at all accurate, that the Ukrainians were able to take that amount of land in a month or two, then project that amount of change forward on a month-by-month basis.

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I am skeptical of it being true but for the sake of argument I will agree to assume it is. The green area on the map is a sizable chunk of strategic territory. Also if this map is correct then the Ukrainians have grabbed actual H20 highway which is one of only two roads connecting Russia to Crimea is officially cut. I am not a logistics expert even though I play one on the internet but it will be awfully hard to keep the southern parts of the occupied territories and Crimea supplied with just one road and one rail line left. Especially since they are under near constant drone attacks.

Speaking of propaganda, here's a very good explanation of recent changes in focus - first find the useful idiots and then corroborate and endorse them.

TLDR? - If reading it gets you angry, it's likely propaganda at some level. As always, anger is your key and the wise man's guidance.

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First, modern propaganda seeks to switch off facts, logic, knowledge, and understanding of what's happening and the reasons for it. Instead, propaganda forces emotions and morality to be switched on. The text is structured precisely for this task.

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You don't need to question the reliability of the materials or to what extent you can trust those [responsible]. None of this is needed—it's too long and complicated; why would you need any facts? Instead, you need to fill yourself with emotions, feel sympathy for the "victim," and morally condemn the "villain" from a position of high virtue.

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Second, modern propaganda doesn't engage in the primitive business of paying journalists and opinion leaders. That's a technology from the last century of propagandistic methods.

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Instead, propaganda seeks out and finds those who have already placed emotions and morality above facts and knowledge within themselves. [Which seem to be the solid majority in social media now.] Those for whom the key words now are "trauma" and "victim." Those who see these traumas and victims everywhere and strive to climb onto the high stool of morality to pour emotions over everyone from there. Such people, without any money or instructions, will do everything propaganda needs on their own.

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It's a universal approach now. The fruits of this approach can be seen every day. Here people demand taking the side of the woman who killed her children. It doesn't matter that she killed the children; what's important is showing empathy for the traumatized woman.

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Here people demand understanding the motives of the terrorist who drove a car into a crowd. It doesn't matter that he killed people; what's important is that something drove him to it.

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LINK

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Anyone else notice that the number of new pro Russian posters increases right before a major missile and drone swarm?

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Every single oblast in Ukraine voted to leave the USSR, It wasn't even close. Russia will never be a great nation without Ukraine and that is the reason and the only reason Putin wants to conquer it.

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Just saying I don't know if he's following Tucker. Otherwise, I don't disagree with you.

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A number of these air drone delivered ground drones have been dropped behind the Russian lines during Operation Vivaldi.


The birth of terminators.

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Read "The Second Variety" by Phillip K. Dick... or watch the movie version "Screamers."

"The Terminator" drew a lot of inspiration from his stories but would not have had as happy an ending if he'd written it.

Rybar is reporting further deterioration in the Russian position in the Sloviansk direction. Russia is getting its arse kicked in this sector right now there is really no other way to put it.



Translated from original Russian using iPhone:

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Deterioration in the Slavic direction

Following the problems in the Liman direction, the situation is also deteriorating in the Slavyansky direction. The enemy was able to gain a foothold in the area of Dibrova and Ozernoye, which complicated the situation for Russian units in the area of Krivoya Luka and.

Ukrainian formations are trying to attack these settlements from the north, crossing the Seversky Donets. Russian units are still maintaining approaches to Nikolaevka, where small groups enter, but the situation here is getting more complicated.

The enemy is carrying out counterattacks to prevent Russian troops from keeping the exit to Nikolaevka from Rai-Alexandrovka. The area of presence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is gradually growing. Ukrainian formations, using a support to the west of the village, passed to its territory and are now being fixed on the outskirts.

The situation has also deteriorated behind the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal. The enemy is attacking in the area of Yurkovka, Malinovka and Tikhonovka, where the Russian presence remains very limited. It is not yet possible to gain a foothold there and strengthen positions due to problems with crossing the channel.

The above is largely due to the increased activity of the enemy in the Liman direction and the transfer of additional drone operators there. This does not affect the benefit of Russian units, which now under the blows of the Liman will be forced to rebuild logistics and change the pace of the offensive on both Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

At the same time, multiple and very massive air strikes continue on the cities of the agglomeration, including three-ton FABs with the UMPK, because of which the enemy suffers losses and is himself constrained in the possibility of accumulating forces.

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Russia uses jet-powered drone with warhead designed to destroy power lines for first time

Andrii Konyk — 30 September, 18:18

The Russians have used a special warhead designed to destroy high-voltage electricity pylons on a jet-powered strike drone for the first time.

Source: Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, adviser to the President of Ukraine and an expert in radio technology

Details: According to Flash, the Russians used the cumulative-cutting special payload warhead (KRSN) for the first time on 30 September.

Quote from "Flash": "This warhead has been created specifically for the destruction of high-voltage pylons and iron bridge structures. The KRSN consists of a 40kg main warhead and four destruction modules."

Details: The use of the KRSN warhead on a jet-powered drone may indicate that the Russians plan to step up attacks on high-voltage power lines.

Previously: Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russia is increasing its use of jet-powered UAVs for attacks on Ukraine. In July, Russia used five times more jet-powered drones against Ukraine than in June.

Russian industry has also begun to master the production of Chinese jet engines after facing problems with supplies from China. This is evidenced by an analysis of drone wreckage conducted by a specialised institution to which Ukrainska Pravda gained access.

The latest batches of Russian Geran-4 and Geran-5 strike drones are equipped with Chinese Telefly TF-TJ2000A jet engines, which were assembled at the Alabuga drone production site.

Ukrainska Pravda

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It's not. Russia has been continuing to advance in parts of Donetsk, and Ukraine has been advancing in others. Ukraine has pushed the balance of the equation back to "stalemate" status, but they're not rapidly advancing across multiple fronts or anything like that.

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It will be interesting to see if the Russians can take advantage of the winter season like they did last year.

It seems Ukraine does better in the spring/summer and the Russians do better in the Winter.