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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/8/26 at 11:24 am to cypher
Posted on 8/8/26 at 11:24 am to cypher
quote:And zero insurance. If this vessel belongs to a small company, they are in real trouble.
Footage published via Reuters Connect shows the Ro-Ro cargo ship NADEZHDA arriving at Türkiye’s Samsun Port on 8 August after being damaged in a drone attack in the Black Sea.
1
Posted on 8/8/26 at 11:31 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/8/26 at 11:32 am to Coeur du Tigre
Black Sea coast.
quote:
Just a friendly reminder that Putin’s palace is located near Gelendzhik.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 8/8/26 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 8/8/26 at 11:59 am to Coeur du Tigre
This is significant. Ukraine can rail grain and seed oil cargos to Romania for loading onboard vessels. Which is an option not open to the Russians.
It will also not apply to Turkish vessels with stupid owners.
It will also not apply to Turkish vessels with stupid owners.
quote:
Turkey is restricting some commercial ship traffic into the Black Sea due to growing concern over Russian and Ukrainian attacks on vessels in the area, - Bloomberg Directorate General of Coastal Safety has told multiple ships bound for Russia's Novorossiysk and Ukraine that it isn't currently issuing transit permits for such voyages.
The restriction effectively limits the flow of vessels into the Black Sea, where a surge in attacks on merchant shipping has drawn calls from Ankara for greater security.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:27 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine can rail grain and seed oil cargos to Romania for loading onboard vessels.
The rail capacity only exists to move about half of Ukraine's grain in this fashion. Ukraine's economy is going to take a significant hit. They're betting that they can destroy Russia's economy before they run out of that EU money.
Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 8/8/26 at 12:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:Yes, and the intermodal rail transport is expensive. But they can establish a revenue stream in this fashion. Unlike Russia. And as you say, without EU money (actually Russian money invested in the EU) Russia needs it more.
Ukraine can rail grain and seed oil cargos to Romania for loading onboard vessels.
The rail capacity only exists to move about half of Ukraine's grain in this fashion. Ukraine's economy is going to take a significant hit. They're betting that they can destroy Russia's economy before they run out of that EU money.
The Turks won't follow through but what they are trying to do is take control of vessel traffic in the Black Sea. Which from Kyiv's view would be fine - just shut access for all Ukrainian and Russian shipping but not other Black Sea countries. This hurts Russia far more. And if any Turkish vessel owners wish to push it into a cease fire allowing them to work for the Russians, then Turkey loses that control and the owner loses another ship.
The proposal has a lot of potential but to back up such a shut down would take more political will than Ankara has.
Posted on 8/9/26 at 3:31 am to Coeur du Tigre
Belgorod is very close to the Ukrainian border and thus a logistics hub for the Russians. As such a target rich area, it has been hit countless times, by now averaging almost nightly.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 8/9/26 at 3:42 am to Coeur du Tigre
Ahhh, so that's what was hit near Gelendzhik yesterday. Either another set of jamming equipment or the AA system set up to protect it.
LINK
quote:And always read the comments, especially with technical topics. The Geeks can't stay off the keyboard.
Satellite imagery dated August 7 indicates Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Volna Kupol Garant electronic warfare system at military unit 2156 in Gelendzhik. The system is designed to suppress Starlink satellite communications by directing radio interference toward the satellite and blocking signals from ground terminals. Open-source monitoring says this is the third documented destruction of the system.
quote:
Third one down. Russia builds a $1.5 million Starlink jammer, Ukraine deletes it from the map. The system engages one satellite at a time, with a range of 16 km. Thats a lot of rubles for a piece of kit that keeps ending up as scrap metal in Gelendzhik.
quote:
That is the core paradox of trying to ground jam a dynamic LEO constellation pumping out enough power to disrupt Starlink essentially turns a 1.5M system into a giant RF beacon. If Russia is losing these all the way back in Gelendzhik [extreme southern Russian Black Sea coast], the attrition curve on their high end EW assets is looking pretty brutal.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.quote:Yep, it was an AA unit.
Magyar: S-400 position in Gelendzhik, on the shore, right next to the catacombs, burned and stank for three hours.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/9/26 at 3:48 am
Posted on 8/9/26 at 4:04 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Igor Girkin predicts the total defeat of Russia without mobilization.
“Once again, I have to repeat: WITHOUT MOBILIZATION, Russia will not be able to defeat the enemy.
And we have had, and continue to have, a ‘no-alternative dilemma’: EITHER TOTAL VICTORY over so-called “Ukraine” and its elimination (in its current form), OR TOTAL DEFEAT, which will very likely lead to the collapse of the Russian Federation, with horrific consequences for all the peoples who inhabit it.
Hence the conclusion: MOBILIZATION IS NECESSARY. But if they carry it out in the same slapdash manner as before, then instead of being a ‘cure,’ it will become a ‘final shot to our own head.’”
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Posted on 8/9/26 at 4:11 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The entirety of French aid to Ukraine corresponds to 10 days of pension expenditures in 2025.
Yet, "the billions that Macron gives to Ukraine" is a topic that comes up often. Let's take the estimate of 12 billion € (the one of 19 taking into account the replacement cost of the equipment provided, which was already in the process of being replaced, and the one of 7.9 covering only direct aid).
It includes more than 5 billion € in transfers of military equipment, some of it obsolete, another portion allowing for feedback on their quality (SAMP-T, Caesar, GM-200, AASM-100...).
This also includes the European Peace Facility, humanitarian support, financial aid via the EU to maintain institutions and public services, and aid to refugees.
Another way to compare: aid to Ukraine is two times less significant (on an annual basis) than official development assistance to Africa (in 2023), especially since half of the 12 billion is not cash per se but equipment.
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Posted on 8/9/26 at 6:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
"well actually you're not even sending us that much money"
Ukrainians have mastered the word "more" in every language.
How do countries procure or produce equipment? Does it just materialize?
Ukrainians have mastered the word "more" in every language.
quote:
Another way to compare: aid to Ukraine is two times less significant (on an annual basis) than official development assistance to Africa (in 2023), especially since half of the 12 billion is not cash per se but equipment.
How do countries procure or produce equipment? Does it just materialize?
Posted on 8/9/26 at 7:24 am to VolSquatch
"Russia continues to bet on ballistic terror, which is not limited to just one city or community. This week alone, 61 missiles of various types were used against Ukraine, including 56 that strike along a ballistic trajectory. There were also more than 1,560 attack drones and 1,540 aerial bombs. Every such attack on human life serves as a constant reminder – we need more pressure, more sanctions against Russia, and more air defense for Ukraine. I am grateful to those who are helping."
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/9/26 at 10:38 am to cypher
This I believe:
Michael Weiss in The Atlantic
quote:
On the Hill, one Republican official in favor of the license told me about an unreported hiccup in the deal. Raytheon and Lockheed, the makers of the Patriot system, “will officially frame their concerns around IP theft and tech transfer,” he said, but “their real worry is that the Ukrainians will find a way to improve the Patriot and then produce them at scale faster and for much less money than what the existing production lines in the U.S. could do.”
Michael Weiss in The Atlantic
Posted on 8/9/26 at 10:59 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
“their real worry is that the Ukrainians will find a way to improve the Patriot and then produce them at scale faster and for much less money than what the existing production lines in the U.S. could do.”
Lmfao
Posted on 8/9/26 at 11:20 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Lmfao
They're making a better cruise missile than Tomahawk for about 20% of the cost.
Are you Lmfao at that?
Posted on 8/9/26 at 11:41 am to No Colors
Ukraine is fighting for survival. Nothing surprises me anymore. It’s all about survival for them.
Posted on 8/9/26 at 11:53 am to No Colors
quote:
They're making a better cruise missile than Tomahawk for about 20% of the cost.
The one that's been intercepted somewhere around 95% of the time in the past month or so? That one?
quote:
Are you Lmfao at that?
I'm lmfao at the prospect that Ukraine is going to substantially improve a platform first produced somewhere around 1970 that is still a conflict defining weapon today, and at a cheaper cost.
Ukraine is fighting for existence, it's all hands on deck. Their biggest innovations are drones NATO members largely aren't commiting to buying and missiles that are cheaper than the tomahawk but functionally seem like a cheap knockoff to this point. And this is happening with all of their best minds (and a lot of ours) working on it.
So yeah, LMFAO at that prospect. All caps this time.
We can praise Ukraine for things they actually do without making up Ghost of Kyiv type bullshite.
This post was edited on 8/9/26 at 11:55 am
Posted on 8/9/26 at 12:02 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The one that's been intercepted somewhere around 95% of the time in the past month or so? That one?
Link?
Only thing I found from an OSI source was the following:
quote:
OSINT Assessments: Analysts note successful penetrations of Russian air defenses on several key military-industrial sites, with specific volleys (like the Titan-Barrikady plant strike) showing high proportions of untracked or impactful arrivals
Posted on 8/9/26 at 12:35 pm to No Colors
You're not going to find much reliable info on it since reliable sources are pretty much exclusively western and there is no incentive for Western sources to publish that the interception rate is so high for a variety of reasons, but we've seen some reporting on it like in the link below where only 2 out of 23 strikes were confirmed hits on target.
LINK
Also interception numbers aren't straightforward to calculate since a successful hit in a place where you don't have air defense shouldn't count against your interception rate (we see Russia often abuse this for their propaganda on Ukranian interception rates, especially lately)
LINK
Also interception numbers aren't straightforward to calculate since a successful hit in a place where you don't have air defense shouldn't count against your interception rate (we see Russia often abuse this for their propaganda on Ukranian interception rates, especially lately)
This post was edited on 8/10/26 at 5:53 am
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