re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Translation:

Are Ballistic Missiles Running Out for the RF?

Today I was asked a question that genuinely surprised me, namely – are Russia's ballistic missiles "Iskander" running out, and where will they find a replacement for them?

The question sounded pretty strange, because, first of all, there are no ballistic missiles called "Iskander" – there is the operational-tactical missile system "Iskander-M/K," and the actual missile is the 9M723. But someone will accuse me of being pedantic and boring. And they'd be right.

Second – what gets produced can't run out. And it's being produced quite actively, I might add. As of today, 9M723 missiles are manufactured at a rate of 3 units of finished product per day. In 2021, 9M723s were produced at a rate of 1 missile per week; today that's 3 missiles per day.

The enemy's use of missiles beyond the 9M723 – such as the 48N6DM, 3M22, P-800, and North Korean KN-23 – speaks to the scaling of terror within the limits of available production capacities for all modifications. But so far, over 7 months of 2026, I haven't once seen monthly strikes exceed monthly production, something I've repeatedly said and written about – the RF plans its current terror against Ukrainian cities with extreme rationality.

I'll put it this way. Even the accumulated stockpile of missiles from 2025 hasn't particularly dwindled, so where these assumptions came from that the RF is running out of something, I haven't the foggiest idea.

Instead of soaking in warm baths of wishful thinking that the enemy's missiles will run out, it's better to prepare for the possibility that, with that approach, there might not even be a warm bath to soak in. The enemy's capabilities should be assessed realistically, as should the methods of countering these threats.

This denotes lack of hydrogen in refining.

No, even if Ukraine did have enough Patriots, over time that's a losing proposition. Anti-ballistic missiles cannot defend cities against long term attack campaigns. The Russians/Chinese/Norks will always be able to out-produce the AB missiles. There must be counterattacks against Russian missile production, logistics and the launch systems (transporter erector launchers - TELs).

Right now, with Ukraine's strike ability, the TELs are located the closest to the border and are therefore most vulnerable. But as they are mobile, a real time satellite-based communication network is required. That's where Musk comes in.

If I'm in charge, I would be looking at the option of regime change at Starlink. That's how serious this is.

quote:

---

If I'm in charge, I would be looking at the option of regime change at Starlink. That's how serious this is.

---

Musk has reportedly said that he will enable Starlink over Russia only if Trump tells him to.

quote:

---

Politics has its limits. War is an extension - politics without limits. They tried persuasion. Now they must remove the restraints of politics. With missiles hitting Ukrainian cities every night, they cannot afford to wait. Time for Plan B.

---

This is nothing new. Ukraine should be on plan B, C or D already.

quote:

---

This is nothing new. Ukraine should be on plan B, C or D already.

---

So they've been attempting Plan B, C or D at Starlink already? You missed the point entirely.

quote:

---

This denotes lack of hydrogen in refining.

---

That makes a lot of sense. Steam/methane reformers (huge fire boxes full of red hot catalytic tubes) is one of the best targets in a plant. It doesn't take much of a boom to do a LOT of damage that doesn't get fixed quickly.

With each oligarch taken down physically as well as financially, the rest see see how little time they have. These people didn't get into their positions of wealth and power by sitting back and doing nothing.

And let's remember - there is no singular, unified FSB. Far from it. It and the other ten official security ministries in Russia are divided into competing groups and they are all working from the same playbook with the same weapons.

quote:

---

Bloomberg: Many of Russia's elite fear the Federal Security Service is out of control as President Vladimir Putin tasks the agency with maintaining his grip on power amid growing unease over the war in Ukraine.

The FSB has been given free rein to investigate anyone with little or no accountability, and is behind the push to charge billionaire Pavel Durov with terrorism as part of efforts to restrict Telegram.

Russia's elites are increasingly alarmed at the inability of the system to deal with mounting challenges linked to the war, and there's no sign Putin's willing to make concessions, with a repressive atmosphere spreading among both the elites and Russia's middle class.

---

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

quote:

---

There's no difference, can't you see that? The greatest threat to the US since 1945 - the primary reason you have two soldiers in your family - is being beaten and with our help can be destroyed. Without any US lives lost. That would be an infinitely better outcome for the US and the entire world.

---

It's not even the biggest threat to the US right now

quote:

---

We ARE Ukraine.

---

Well we know YOU are.