re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

First, GOP was referring to the Patriot anti-ballistic defensive missile. The proposed Ukrainian / EU anti-ballistic missile is called the Freya and there is no data on it as it has not yet been used. Still on the drawing board, highly optimistic date of first use mid-2027.

Secondly, the offensive cruise missile is the FP-5 Flamingo, very much in use. Here are the verified results as of last May. There have been more attacks since then, particularly the VIINR Electronics plant for the third time -



Considering these are only the first ten times it has been used, once it got de-bugged over its first few attacks it has had a very successful record.

Attack #6 was the critically-important Russian Iskander missile production site 1300km from launch point.



Attacks #8 and #9 were against the VIINR Electronics plant, destroying much of the manufacturing facility and all of the admin building -



(Ignore the Potemkin Village canvas to the left, covering blast damage.)

Attack # 10 was against a missile R&D / manufacturing plant in Volgograd.



The FP-5 design problems are from its size (six tons). This allows it to have twice the range as the Tomahawk while still carrying a very large warhead.

The early targeting issues were from its need to fly very low, making ground recognition software problematic. But the effectiveness is improving greatly, possibly due to new French targeting software.

Before / after.

The FP-5's warhead is 1100kg. The Tomahawk's warhead is 450kg.

Holy shite. ISW confirms.

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First, GOP was referring to the Patriot anti-ballistic defensive missile. The proposed Ukrainian / EU anti-ballistic missile is called the Freya and there is no data on it as it has not yet been used. Still on the drawing board, highly optimistic date of first use mid-2027.

Secondly, the offensive cruise missile is the FP-5 Flamingo, very much in use. Here are the verified results as of last May. There have been more attacks since then, particularly the VIINR Electronics plant for the third time -

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Nothing in my post suggested I was talking about the same platform the entire time. No Colors brought up the flamingo's "success" as some kind of attempted gotcha

Could be wrong but I don't think Russia has ever gotten even close to inside of Orikhiv. True enough that Ukraine could successfully counterattack, but something has changed if Russia is even able to probe inside Orikhiv.

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This would be absolutely stunning if confirmed.

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Infiltration events are not the same as control. Overall, Ukraine is advancing in the South, as even your Rybar map shows.

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The whataboutism is fricking unreal sometimes

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I don't even understand what you mean. The pattern for 2026 has been that Ukraine has advanced in the south, while Russia has advanced in the east. A localized Russian counter-attack that infiltrates north in one area of the southern front isn't "stunning," as Nate put it. It's not stunning at all. Interesting? Sure. Worth paying attention to, to see if anything ultimately comes of it? Yeah.

Where's the whataboutism?

A large retail warehouse in occupied Donetsk.

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The picture from 30,000 feet -

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After 3 very difficult months (losses as high as usual and low progress across all fronts), Russian forces will start again to gain more territory in August.

Most of the gains will happen in the Donbas (mainly in Dobropilla, Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk directions, following Russian offensive). They will probably continue to lose ground near Lyman (60km2 currently in red which should be blue/grey) and in Komar (also in Donetsk oblast) which means final numbers may not reflect the pace of advance in the central part of Donbas.

Km2 are not the most important thing but they show trends. If the number of km2 taken in an attritional war (it should be exponential) is going down, maybe the attrition is not on the side we are looking. This also shows the results of strikes on logistics, personnal losses and fortifications.

You can see here :

1- Overall km2 change / monthly (source @Pouletvolant3 )
2- Weekly km2 gain for Russia
3- Weekly km2 lost (to grey zone) for Ukraine
4- Donbas km2 change / monthly

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Also this from ISW:

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In particular, TANECO is one of the largest modern oil refineries in Russia, and Nizhnekamskneftekhim produces synthetic rubbers, polymers, and other petrochemical products.

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The targeted Nizhnekamskneftekhim plant is one of the largest petrochemical facilities in Russia and Eastern Europe. It is part of the SIBUR holding company.

The plant is one of the world’s leading producers of isoprene rubber. Its facilities also manufacture butyl, halobutyl, and butadiene rubber.

In addition, the plant produces ethylene, propylene, and benzene, as well as synthetic lubricants and propylene glycol.

Products manufactured by the SIBUR parent holding company and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, including plastics, rubber, propane-butane, and solvents, are used by related enterprises in Russia’s defense sector.

The products are supplied, in particular, to Kamensky Combine and Perm Powder Plant, which produce solid rocket propellant, engines, and warhead charges for Russian cruise missiles.

Militarnyi