re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

quote:

---

Is there dissent in the ranks?

---

Yes, definitely. Not so much Vance / Driscoll but between Hegseth and Driscoll. Hegseth has been trying to sideline Driscoll for some time now.

WSJ

quote:

---

Primary oil processing at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery has been halted. The outage, which began on April 18 after a Ukrainian drone strike, encompasses the first stage of crude processing at one of Russia’s refineries in the Samara region, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

The outage follows attacks reported on Saturday by Samara region governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, who said the Novokuibyshevsk and Syzran refineries had been targeted. The Novokuibyshevsk plant is operated by Rosneft and processed 5.74 million metric tons (115,000 bpd) of crude in 2024, according to Reuters industry sources.

The refinery produced 1.10 million tons of gasoline last year, 1.64 million tons of diesel fuel, and 1.27 million tons of fuel oil, according to the same sources. With primary processing halted, the disruption is not limited to one product stream. If crude distillation is down, the refinery cannot run normally.

That is the immediate issue for Russia’s downstream system. Moscow is not short of crude production. The problem is what happens when a refinery cannot take crude in and turn it into gasoline, diesel and other products. In past refinery outages, barrels that could not be processed domestically were redirected toward export markets instead.

That already happened at Novokuibyshevsk before. Last year, Ukrainian strikes on Novokuibyshevsk and other Rosneft refineries forced Russia to reroute excess crude to western export ports as domestic processing capacity fell. That shift helped support crude exports while tightening the domestic fuel balance.

The latest outage comes as Russia’s oil revenues remain elevated. Figures cited by RFE/RL showed Russian export revenues from crude and refined products rose to $19 billion in March from $9.7 billion in February as global prices climbed. At the same time, Washington extended a sanctions waiver allowing Russian crude sales to Indian refiners through mid-May, preserving a major outlet for Russian barrels.

No restart timeline for Novokuibyshevsk has been disclosed.

---

Ukraine strike halts processing at Novokuibyshevsk refinery. oilprice.com

Kinetic sanctions doin' work.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Ah, there we have it. The new narritive designed to justify a ceasefire on Russian terms - Ukraine's occupied territories are now the “security zone”.

The Russians will repeat this mantra endlessly hoping that someone in the West will bite. We already know who will, but he no longer has cards in this war.

None of it will matter anyway as Kyiv will never accept it. Maybe three years ago, but not now.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

With Orban gone, The EU has now officially passed the loan of €90 billion to Ukraine.

Like the majority of Russian refineries this is not even a midsized by US Gulf Coast or Midwest standards. The crude unit is easiest to repair, operating a low pressure, patches would not be out of the question at all. While it is damaged and out of commission, sketchy repairs would work to put back into service.

It's definitely a nice cut but not a fatal blow.

Seen some pundits say recent Russian maneuvers have made strikes on rail and other infrastructure more likely/achievable.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

quote:

---

Per two friends who were in Trump's 2016 campaign, Trump actually encouraged opposing views within his inner circle to see more than one side.

---

Yep and in this admin you could see the debates they were having in the leaked signal chats on the Iran strike last year.

The one country that has profited more from the war in Ukraine - even more than China - is Norway. All that oil that Russia is not selling has been replaced in great part by Norway.

The [Norwegian national oil investment] fund is now "five times larger than the government’s remaining value of all oil and gas resources on the Norwegian continental shelf.” But under the heading, 'No good deed goes unpunished', although Norway has donated a great deal to Ukraine, they are catching heat for not doing enough.

quote:

---

[Norway] has earned about $140bn more in 2022 and 2023 from petroleum following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine than it did in 2021. Now, Nordea credit investment director Robert Næss has forecast Norway has earned at least an additional $8bn from the conflict in Iran, which shows no immediate signs of ending.

---

quote:

---

[At the same time,] its support as a percentage of GDP is still behind Estonia and Lithuania, according to the Kiel Institut’s Ukraine Support Tracker.

---

"Moral paradoxes" aside, the reputational damage may be lasting. Ok, not in the same toilet as Belgium and Austria, but Norwegians enjoy their position as the responsible humanitarians of the EU. However with that kind of largesse, they need to step up.

Financial Times

Exclusive: US turns to Ukrainian counter-drone tech after Iran attacks, sources say

By David Jeans
April 22, 20265:03 AM CDTUpdated 4 hours ago

Ukrainian Sky Map software platform deployed at Prince Sultan Air Base to counter drone threats
US air defenses face longstanding gaps, analysts say, prompting adoption of new technologies
Base uses multiple systems including Northrop Grumman FAAD and RTX Coyote interceptors, sources say

NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology in recent weeks at a key U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia, according to five people with ?knowledge of the matter, as it seeks to stem attacks that have destroyed aircraft and buildings, and killed at least one service member.
The deployment of a Ukrainian command-and-control platform called ?Sky Map at Prince Sultan Air Base, which has not previously been reported, is a sign of how Ukraine’s military has surged ahead in drone and counter-drone technologies that have been battle-hardened in its four-year war with Russia.

Ukrainian military officials arrived at the base in recent weeks to train U.S. warfighters with Sky Map, which is used widely by the Ukrainian military to detect incoming drone threats – including Iranian-developed Shahed drones – and launch counter-attacks with interceptor drones.
As cheap, mass-produced drones play a large role in ?Russia's war in Ukraine, the Pentagon has ramped up investments in counter-drone technology. But the use of Ukrainian technology at Prince Sultan, which is about 400 miles (640 kilometers) from Iran and has endured ?waves of drones and missiles since the war began, highlights vulnerabilities in U.S. air and missile defense, analysts say.

Reuters