re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Yes. They are alive, not being raped, kidnapped, or imprisoned, and have the hope for their families and themselves to live in a free and sovereign country. Pretty simple, really.

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Actually they are and its their own government, or dictator who is doing it.

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The West and Russia both underestimated Ukraine. Russia and the West over estimated Russia.


Initially, absolutely they did.

But we are talking about present day here.

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Okay.

This is a valid point. What would you consider to be a reasonable estimation of the situation?

I would say that it is reasonable to assume the Russians have no chance to take over the whole of`Ukraine. I would also believe that it is reasonable to assume that the Russians, should they take over any part of`Ukraine, would slaughter, rape, kidnap, or someway abuse any Ukrainian they can get their hands on, based on previous experience.

I also believe that it is reasonable to believe - though maybe you don't necessarily assume - that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, Again, this is not to be assumed, just believed.

`I also estimate that based on a number of purely military factors, such as a lack of ability in combined arms, leadership, NCO corps, and logistics, that they are incapable of any major gains over the next few years. While they may be capable of finally taking a minor town with minor strategic importance they won't be able to exploit that gain and will immediately go back to fighting over feet of land, not miles.

I also assume the Europeans aren't going to allow the Ukrainian economy to collapse because, whether or not it is true, the Europeans believe they are next on the Russian war list. Again, maybe it's true or not, but the Europeans believe it so that influences their relationship with the Ukrainians.

As a result, `I believe it is reasonable for the Ukrainians to not surrender and to continue to attack the Russian economic underbelly until it collapses due tot he fact that the Russian military is not going progress with any great gains and the Europeans aren't going to allow the Ukrainian economy to collapse.

What do you estimate the situation to be?

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What do you estimate the situation to be?

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That Ukraine is likely to run out of men first.

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I would say that it is reasonable to assume the Russians have no chance to take over the whole of`Ukraine. I would also believe that it is reasonable to assume that the Russians, should they take over any part of`Ukraine, would slaughter, rape, kidnap, or someway abuse any Ukrainian they can get their hands on, based on previous experience.

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I don't think we can assume that based on Ukraine's personnel limitations.

Would I bet on it? No. But not necessarily because Russia is incapable of eventually doing it, but rather because it won't get to that point. Or maybe Ukraine sees their demographic numbers and rolls the dice because they are fricked either way, and you might as well go out on your sword. Or they make it so Russia just quits with more favorable terms for Ukraine.

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I also believe that it is reasonable to believe - though maybe you don't necessarily assume - that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse, Again, this is not to be assumed, just believed.

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Its clearly extremely damaged. We've been hearing for years at this point that it is on the verge of collapse. But I think most of those assumptions are ignoring or at least not properly weighing the shift toward a wartime economy for them.

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`I also estimate that based on a number of purely military factors, such as a lack of ability in combined arms, leadership, NCO corps, and logistics, that they are incapable of any major gains over the next few years. While they may be capable of finally taking a minor town with minor strategic importance they won't be able to exploit that gain and will immediately go back to fighting over feet of land, not miles.

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Maybe. War economics and the prevalence of drones and other low-cost but high impact weaponry mean that we have to adjust our views on combined arms and logistics though. Maybe we have adjusted enough and Russia just can't do it, maybe not and they realize its still at a point where you're just throwing away armor if you try those at any significant scale right now. Their capabilities are certainly degraded at the very least.

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I also assume the Europeans aren't going to allow the Ukrainian economy to collapse because, whether or not it is true, the Europeans believe they are next on the Russian war list. Again, maybe it's true or not, but the Europeans believe it so that influences their relationship with the Ukrainians.

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I am going off the assumption that until this is resolved, money will not be an issue for Ukraine.

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As a result, `I believe it is reasonable for the Ukrainians to not surrender and to continue to attack the Russian economic underbelly until it collapses due tot he fact that the Russian military is not going progress with any great gains and the Europeans aren't going to allow the Ukrainian economy to collapse.

What do you estimate the situation to be?

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I think If I'm Ukraine and playing odds, I give up the chunks of land Russia wants now if I can also get some heavy, clearly laid out security assurances going forward.

Contrary to what some on here believe, we have MORE than fulfilled our obligations to Ukraine in terms of their security that we agreed to when they gave up their nukes. By wording of the document itself, simply the US stating "Ukraine has a right to their own sovereignty" fulfills it. We have obviously gone way beyond that.

That said, they need to get ironclad terms that can't be interpreted in any number of ways. "If Russia attacks, X happens". No fluff, no loose language.

A big part of my view on this is based on Ukraine's pending demographic collapse. Their birth rate is in the toilet. Many have fled the country and won't go back, many have died at the front. Had Ukraine lowered the age of conscription to say 21 earlier, they could have made is so that younger conscripts didn't go to the front initially and underwent significant training first and took on other support roles so that once they reached 25 or so they would have significant training and experience before going to the front. Now a 21 year old in 2022 might be 25 years old or close to it in Dec 2025, and they would get taken off the street and sent to the front with minimal training instead. The hay is in the barn for the most part there.

What is going to end up happening is that Ukraine will drag this out, the population crisis will get even worse, then once this is resolved migrants from all over will move to Ukraine and it won't even be the Ukraine we are trying to defend today within 10-15 years (if that long).

Will the EU ever provide significant support? Not reconstruction or rebuilding packages that they will funnel to companies in their countries, but real support in military hardware and money to run the Ukraine government?

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I think If I'm Ukraine and playing odds, I give up the chunks of land Russia wants now if I can also get some heavy, clearly laid out security assurances going forward.

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IMO.. looking for "security assurances" is flawed given Putin/Russia has already found and excuse to violate the assurances that were in place prior to them invading...

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Russia is in as bad of demographic crisis if not worse.

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Not based on anything measurable that I've seen

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That's why I said later they need to be ironclad. The assurances they got last time weren't.

Maybe it is what is left of Ukraine getting into NATO. I don't want that personally, but if that can resolve the issue long term maybe just do it.

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People that plead for Ukraine to throw in the towel don’t want Ukraine in NATO. They don’t want the US involved. They say it’s a European problem. But we are allied with most of Europe.