re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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You're under the impression that the west is holding back, a week after France agreed to send 100 of it's most sophisticated fighter? I have my doubts on that being delivered though, which I laid out at the time.

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So you say they are holding back weapons too. We agree.

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Venezuela is a "sovereign" country as well. Would it be okay for Russia or China to equip them with missiles capable of taking out the USS Ford?

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If they had promised to protect Venezuela and we attacked them then it would be their call. For all we know they may have already done that.

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My doubts aren't based on them holding back weapons. We do not agree.

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Again, I didn’t say that.

I said we agreed that the West is holding back weapons.

if Europe continues to block peace, the us should drop nato on its butt

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Why are 75% of your insults about gay shite? It is legitimately weird. You gotta throw them out occasionally to really get the full impact, you over commit and now everyone just thinks you're gay

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CitizenKuck might be one of those switch hitters. Or he might be just 100% Miss Lindsey. After all a man that claims as many male friends as he does you never know.

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You're under the impression that the west is holding back, a week after France agreed to send 100 of it's most sophisticated fighter?

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I'm not under any impression - the West IS holding back.

And we all know it's true because every country in the west, especially the US, is standing around pointing fingers and accurately accusing each other of holding back. Standard political BS. The fact that France, once again, found a way to make money off of someone else doing the fighting for them doesn't change that.

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I would say that it is reasonable to assume the Russians have no chance to take over the whole of`Ukraine. I would also believe that it is reasonable to assume that the Russians, should they take over any part of`Ukraine, would slaughter, rape, kidnap, or someway abuse any Ukrainian they can get their hands on, based on previous experience.


I don't think we can assume that based on Ukraine's personnel limitations.

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Okay, but Kiev is the size of Chicago, so if the Russians can't take towns I've never heard of after a year and a half then they aren't takine European Chicago. I will make a bet on any terms you want that that won't happen before this war 'ends.' (We can debate what defines 'ends')

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Maybe. War economics and the prevalence of drones and other low-cost but high impact weaponry mean that we have to adjust our views on combined arms and logistics though

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Not if the Russians don't. The model the Russians are using is straight out of WWI, just using drones instead of artillery. I posted Patton's evaluation of the Russians post-WWII and it's still relevant, spot-on even. That and, I'm sorry, the Russian wartime economy sucks. The Russian economy beore this war wasn't particularly strong, and their version of a 'wartime economy' (or a 'Special Military Operation-economy) isn't impressive, so I'm not expecting them to all of a sudden become competent or grow the ability to actually overwhelm the Ukrainians, per their plan. And that's before we even discuss their 'competency'....

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I think If I'm Ukraine and playing odds, I give up the chunks of land Russia wants now if I can also get some heavy, clearly laid out security assurances going forward

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Okay, but they tried that strategy. There has been constant clamoring by the Ukrainians for some actual security guarantees and not only have they not achieved anything they've actually gone backwards, as seen by the joke of a 'peace plan.' Not only will the Russians absolutely \not allow for any real guarantees, they refuse to even consider capping the Russian Army. ARE YOU F"N SERIOUS? They want to cap Ukraine's but not the Russians?!

So, yeah, while I agree with you, that ain't happening.

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A big part of my view on this is based on Ukraine's pending demographic collapse.

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Okay, everything you said about this is true. But it's irrelevant from a military perspective, unless you are talking about demographics from 16 years back and onward. All the Ukrainians think about it surviving Russia right now, and they'll deal with the democraic apocalypse afterwards.

Every other night, another Russian refinery / oil depot hit.

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The European Commission will present a legal proposal this week to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine, Reuters reports. The plan centers on a "reparations loan" tied to Russia’s immobilized central bank funds, Ukraine would only repay if Russia eventually pays reparations. EU borrowing or a hybrid option is also on the table.

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Belgium is pushing back hard against EU plans to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine, warning it could bankrupt the country. FM Prévot says handing over €185B held at Euroclear without solid guarantees exposes Belgium to huge risks. “Our concerns are legitimate, but we’re not being heard,” PM de Wever added.

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Either Belgium is completely dependent of Russian money, or the USA wants this money for a deal with Russia after the War and forbids Belgium from giving this money to Europe.

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Risk is at EU, since it's their mechanism. Get you head out of your arse Belgium.

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Brussels can't duck this any longer, the pressure to make a decision is becoming unbearable. They already allowed the portfolio gains to be given to the Ukrainians, so any liability is already established. What would also be established is the future jurisdiction of any court used by the Russians. Yep, that would be Brussels.

EU mechanism, EU court... what is Brussels worried about? Well, someone else other than the EU or the Russians is now demanding this money. Yes, that brings us back to Witkoff and Kushner. Thus Brussel's delay.

Edited to add this recent announcement -

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According to Politico, the European Union is expected to rule today [Dec. 03] that the confiscation of frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine is legally permissible.

The publication reports that the European Commission will justify this decision under Article 122 of the EU Treaty. This article allows the governments of EU member states to adopt measures “in a spirit of solidarity between member countries, for actions that correspond to the economic situation.”

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Slow learners pay the highest tuition.

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Besiktas Shipping, owner of an oil tanker that was damaged near Senegal's coast last week after being hit by four external explosions has announced it will halt all Russia-related shipping.

Besiktas Shipping said the move was driven by a “sharp increase in risks to vessels and crews.”

The tanker Mersin was anchored off the coast of Senegal on November 27 when four explosions occurred, flooding its engine room. The vessel had frequently visited Russian ports before being damaged.

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