re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Ukrainian leader says Donald Trump has changed his mind about the conflict.

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When not a hundred drones, but a thousand will fly towards Moscow... Putin will understand," - Zelensky in an interview Financial Times

The president's main statements about the new phase of the war:

After containing Russia on land and at sea, the decisive confrontation will take place in the sky. Ukraine has already proven that it is capable of quickly seizing the initiative in airspace.

According to Zelensky, Donald Trump believes that Ukraine "is doing very well" with the use of long-range drones.

Europe needs to more actively share technologies and develop joint defense production, as there will never be enough Patriot systems for everyone.

A critical vulnerability of Ukraine remains anti-ballistic defense - this is what the president called the main gap in defense.

"When not a hundred drones, but a thousand will fly towards Moscow... Putin will understand. His advisors will advise him to move beyond the Urals. And the further he is from Moscow - the closer the end of the war will be".

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More Russian reaction to Omsk -

A.) It's not our job;

B.) We don't have the equipment and ammunition; and

C.) We can't shoot at drones when they are over populated areas.

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[quote] As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km [actually 3300km]. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:

3/ "The situation with the Omsk Oil Refinery raises the awkward question of "transit" regions—regions where local anti-drone enforcement agents operate based on the objective-based defence principle: if it's not aimed at us, let it fly on, as long as we or our facilities are not in the news.

Yes, you'd be surprised, but this approach does exist, and not all that uncommon.

5/ "I'll even quote one executive of a large enterprise who asked me point-blank at a meeting about equipping mobile task forces: "How are we even going to know what's heading specifically for our facility?"

6/ "In response to my wide-eyed reaction, he said: "Well, we have a mandate to defend our own property. If we use our ammunition outside our facility, management will hold us accountable—on what grounds was it used?"

7/ "And most importantly, they will. Accounting and control are our everything. Hence the conclusion. Our land may be private, but the sky is public. Anyone who doesn't understand this can already say goodbye to the property they consider "theirs."

"I'll put it more bluntly. The model we're developing, where counter-drone defence is the responsibility of the army's air defence plus [regional] governors, has proven its inadequacy in Omsk.

11/ "The army simply doesn't have the manpower to organize zonal defence, and army air defence isn't even a branch of the armed forces (as it used to be) but part of the Aerospace Forces, and a fifth wheel at that.

12/ "And the governors lack the authority, competence, and personnel: they assemble headquarters, issue orders, and then it turns out there's simply no one to carry them out.

14/ Chadeyev also draws attention to the implications of comments by Fire Point chief designer Denis Shtilerman, whose drones were used in the Omsk attack, that the operation took "more than a week" to plan:

"What does that mean? That the enemy is well aware of the location of our air defence position areas and also knows that they are static, not being changed or moved.

18/ "If we analyze the attack itself, we see that the brunt of the interception fell on the air force, with the target mobile task forces making virtually no contribution.

19/ "And the air force simply stopped using its weapons after the drones flew directly over residential areas—and that's understandable, too. The image of an SU-57 firing missiles at its own city of a million people isn't very impressive.

20/ "They shot down quite a few during approach, but not all. Simply put, there was a lack of proper defence layering.

LINK

Well boys, buckle up. From this afternoon in Kyiv -

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Zelensky just drew a massive, bloody target directly over Russia's elite nerve centers, warning Putin that a storm of thousands of drones is about to shatter the illusion of safety in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In a fierce, uncompromising statement, the Ukrainian President announced a dramatic escalation of deep-theater strikes, promising to bring the full horror of the war directly to the doorsteps of Russia's ruling class. Zelensky made it clear that as long as Ukrainian strikes avoided Russia's twin capitals, Putin felt insulated from his own aggression. However, the strategy is shifting completely: Ukraine intends to rain over a thousand drones down on Moscow and St. Petersburg to force the Kremlin and its trembling elites to face reality, panic for their lives, and run for cover beyond the Ural Mountains. This is the ultimate psychological and strategic masterstroke to break the back of the Russian occupation. By turning Russia's most affluent, decision-making capitals into active war zones, Ukraine is stripping Putin of his domestic stability and hitting the elites exactly where they sleep.

When the very people funding and ordering the slaughter of Ukrainians find themselves hiding in bomb shelters, the pressure on the Kremlin will become completely unsustainable—making Putin's retreat from Moscow the literal gateway to a Ukrainian victory.

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it appears that Russia is losing the sea of Azov

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According to Brovdi, all of the damaged tankers have been identified. He said they are subject to international sanctions, have a deadweight of around 7,000 tonnes, are approximately 140 metres long and were built between 2006 and 2012.

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Built to navigate the river/canal system in Russia and all about the size of an inland tank barge in the US.

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Trump can't stand to be on the losing side of anything, Zelensky knows full well Trump prefers that Putin win and has tried to put his thumb on the scale, but if that's not possible, he will go with whoever is winning.

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People let their opinions of Trump build a completely disconnected view of him, and as a result don't understand almost any event involving him that occurs while he is in power.

Trump's flaw is that he is easily persuaded when he doesn't feel there is a clear path on an issue. It's pretty clear Zelensky just said something compelling and Trump is buying it, for now. We will see what he thinks next week.

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it appears that Russia is losing the sea of Azov

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Eight tankers, a dry-cargo ship, and a ferry used to supply Crimea. That's an incredible set of targets.

The greatest debate about the conflict right now is whether Ukraine's long-range or medium-range strike campaigns are doing greater damage. The long-range strikes have had success inflicting fuel shortages across Russia, but this is a huge score for the medium-strike campaign—much of Crimea is often without power now, and Russian logistics are transitioning from "challenging" to "nightmare."

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Will Saudi Arabia do more damage to the Russian budget than Western sanctions:

A) Yes;

B) No?

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If you can't see a difference between Trump's wild swings on issues and merely listening to someone and adjusting based on information I don't know what to tell you. The latter should be celebrated, the former should not.