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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:55 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/10/25 at 6:55 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine has hit 14% of Russia's total refining capacity in the past 8 days.
How much have they incapacitated?
Hitting is nigh- irrelevant if they don't shut it down.
Hopefully is all 14%, but I doubt it
2
Posted on 8/10/25 at 8:13 am to Coeur du Tigre
The vast majority of refineries have multiple units from start to finish, in almost parallel processing lines.
We rate refineries in two ways, BPD (not month) and Nelson Complexity. The nameplate capacity for Exxon BTR is 544,000 BPD with crude units.
WhoopEE furnaces (fired heaters) were replaced. The only reason a fired heater is just rebuilt instead of being replaced in the US is because the emissions permit for the existing fire heater would need an entirely new permit. Instead we retube and replace burners. Often this only makes economic sense due the cost/red tape for the new permit.
We rate refineries in two ways, BPD (not month) and Nelson Complexity. The nameplate capacity for Exxon BTR is 544,000 BPD with crude units.
WhoopEE furnaces (fired heaters) were replaced. The only reason a fired heater is just rebuilt instead of being replaced in the US is because the emissions permit for the existing fire heater would need an entirely new permit. Instead we retube and replace burners. Often this only makes economic sense due the cost/red tape for the new permit.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 9:03 am to VolSquatch
quote:
By what metric?
The people here believe Ukraine is winning, despite having no manpower to ever launch a counter offensive and not controlling the regions Russia wants.
If little Z says no land can go to Russia in a peace deal, then there will never be peace until Ukraine is fully conquered. Russia currently occupies the land it wants in a peace deal, why would they give it up when Ukraine has no means to take it back?
Ukrainians hold no cards. The Russians will eradicate their people for being insolent. How long before little Z gets an angry lynch mob after him? The people there want peace. Most of the population wants a peace deal. They can’t win
Posted on 8/10/25 at 9:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. NOELREPORTS?
?@noelreports.com?
· 34m
Ukrainian drones have for the first time reached the Komi Republic, striking near the Ukhta oil refinery. Locals reported loud explosions in the area, about 1,700 km from Ukraine.
This post was edited on 8/10/25 at 9:19 am
Posted on 8/10/25 at 10:11 am to VolSquatch
quote:
How much have they incapacitated? Hitting is nigh- irrelevant if they don't shut it down. Hopefully is all 14%, but I doubt it
Good point
Posted on 8/10/25 at 10:36 am to Leopold
It sucks But Ukraine isn’t getting any land back in this war. They do not have the offensive capability to reconquer what has been taken. Their options at this point is to give Putin what he already has or to lose more.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 11:00 am to GeauxBurrow312
quote:
The people here believe Ukraine is winning, despite having no manpower to ever launch a counter offensive and not controlling the regions Russia wants.
If little Z says no land can go to Russia in a peace deal, then there will never be peace until Ukraine is fully conquered. Russia currently occupies the land it wants in a peace deal, why would they give it up when Ukraine has no means to take it back?
Ukrainians hold no cards. The Russians will eradicate their people for being insolent. How long before little Z gets an angry lynch mob after him? The people there want peace. Most of the population wants a peace deal. They can’t win
Russia loses if it cannot conquer Ukraine. Russia is also having the same issues with manpower but more because it wastes manpower. Ukraine's economy is bolstered by the West. Further sanctions on oil does in fact kill Russia's actual economy. Recently, classification societies began removing "dark fleet" vessels from their rolls. This will severely impact available ships available to Russia especially if they cannot transit the Dardanelles or Baltic Straits. That's a really big deal.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 11:05 am to LARancher1991
quote:
Their options at this point is to give Putin what he already has or to lose more.
You do understand that Russia loses 15-50 men for every French Quarter courtyard it takes. This limits Russia to what it can take.
FTR, a phucking inch worm could have made it to Kyiv from the eastern front already if it had started in Feb 2022.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 12:44 pm to cypher
quote:
NOELREPORTS
Ukrainian drones have for the first time reached the Komi Republic, striking near the Ukhta oil refinery.
quote:
Drones reportedly hit oil refinery in Russia's Komi, over 2,000 km from Ukraine border – video
quote:
Distance between Kyiv, Ukraine and Ukhta, Komi Republic, Russia 2003 km = 1245 miles
So wow, this exceeds even the 1600km to Yelabusa yesterday. Ukrainians showing off?
quote:
The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, linked to Russian security forces, released footage showing a hole in one of the refinery’s tanks.
Either a caustic soda tank or the camera was frozen -
quote:
Russian Telegram channels have claimed that Ukrainian UAVs have for the first time attacked an oil refinery in Russia’s Komi Republic, located about 2,000 km from the Ukrainian border.
Source: Meduza, a Latvia-based Russian media outlet, and Novaya Gazeta Europe, a Russian socio-political newspaper, citing local Telegram channels; Kremlin-aligned news agency RIA Novosti, citing Rostislav Goldstein, acting head of the region.
Wait... They have a Goldstein in this frozen arctic corner of Russia? Really? Oh, yeah, this is one of the regions that were settled by people forcibly removed to the gulags. But why is he only acting head of the region? Oh yeah, Goldstein. Well, too bad. He would have been a natural in a few 'Seinfield' episodes. Ok... after shooting the Soup Nazi (he vas a Nazi!), he hops the counter and starts making frozen fish sandwiches. Still frozen. "Not frozen takes ten years from life, use only frozen! What? I have no parking? Vas ist parking?"
quote:
Details: Goldstein said that security procedures have been introduced in Komi due to UAV flights in the Ukhta district, although no casualties were reported. Telegram channels stated that drones had attacked a local oil refinery. Authorities evacuated the facility and the Yarmarka shopping centre in Ukhta.
So, enough fuel to fly 2000km yet enough payload to blow a hole in a half-inch (for caustic density) steel shore tank. And if it is a caustic tank at that latitude, it would have insulation too.
Again, at this range drones from Ukraine arrive in daylight. So that makes two refineries in one night, although this one is more of a demonstration than actual damage. For now...
LINK
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:11 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
So wow, this exceeds even the 1600km to Yelabusa yesterday. Ukrainians showing off?
Zelensky announced a new type with 3000 km range had passed tests back in March.
Also, one of the videos captures an image of the drone and it may not be one that has been seen before.
Ukrainian long-range drone successfully completes 3,000-kilometer test, Zelensky says
This post was edited on 8/10/25 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:12 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:32 pm to cypher
quote:
Also, one of the videos captures an image of the drone and it may not be one that has been seen before.
Yes, this video shows a much different drone than the slower UJ-22 or twin boom Liutiy.
Video here.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:36 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Yes, this video shows a much different drone than the slower UJ-22 or twin boom Liutiy.
That's the one.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:44 pm to cypher
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. The repair / reconstruction of these Ru refinery units usually takes one to four months. The originally announced "one week" or "ten days" is stretched after the news cycle has moved on. However this time may be different. If not, 550km is no hill for a stepper.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:55 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
For an idea of scale, Ukraine's drone strike on an oil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic today is approximately the same distance from Ukraine as Spain.
There should be no doubt, Ukraine is going to finally destroy Russia's oil industry.
Only the US stopped them before - not now.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. 
Posted on 8/10/25 at 2:27 pm to Coeur du Tigre
That is huge for amount of caustic used in a refinery in downstream processes such as a Merox unit.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 2:40 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Ukraine has hit 14% of Russia's total refining capacity in the past 8 days.
How much have they incapacitated?
Hitting is nigh- irrelevant if they don't shut it down.
Hopefully is all 14%, but I doubt it
Lot of posts about drone strikes but no answer to this from the spammers who claim to know a lot about the topic. Telling.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 2:57 pm to Tigris
quote:
Well, how's that Russian offensive been going? It seems like you were thinking that was a key factor this spring, and it's not been going all that well for them.
Can Russia overrun Ukraine before their economy and public opinion collapse? I doubt it, but that's entirely up to NATO nations. If support for Ukraine continues then Russia is screwed. I have zero confidence in Trump to do the right thing based on the latest information, but Ukraine doesn't need the US to prevail. Europe is not going to let Russia win this. They know better.
agreed.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 2:59 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Lot of posts about drone strikes but no answer to this from the spammers who claim to know a lot about the topic. Telling.
Telling what? They don’t know? How would they unless it was public?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 3:16 pm to VolSquatch
How would anyone know this information? Has Russia published some documents on the effectiveness of Ukraine's strikes?
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