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Message
I was killed for saying the House would go blue in 2018
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:50 pm
2018 prediction
I'll say this, I feel much, much better about Trump's re-election chances this year than I did about the house 2 years ago, but some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
Let's say Trump takes all of these swing states -
Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nebraska 2, and Maine 2. He's only sitting at 260 electoral votes.
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
As of right now, it's too early to tell until we get more accurate polling the closer we get to election day (the days leading up to Nov 8 in 2016 showed very narrow tightening in the final days).
I'll say this, I feel much, much better about Trump's re-election chances this year than I did about the house 2 years ago, but some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
Let's say Trump takes all of these swing states -
Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nebraska 2, and Maine 2. He's only sitting at 260 electoral votes.
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
As of right now, it's too early to tell until we get more accurate polling the closer we get to election day (the days leading up to Nov 8 in 2016 showed very narrow tightening in the final days).
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm
11
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:51 pm to Stidham8
You have forgotten that Nevada and New Hampshire are on the board as well.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:52 pm to Stidham8
What if he loses Texas?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:53 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
You have forgotten that Nevada and New Hampshire are on the board as well.
Yes NH was only a little over 3k vote difference with 30k going to the lib candidate.
NH is absolutely in play.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:53 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
You have forgotten that Nevada and New Hampshire are on the board as well.
True. Nevada's only 6 votes though and New Hampshire is 4.
A "landslide" victory would come from sweeping the midwest.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:53 pm to ROPO
quote:
What if he loses Texas?
What if my aunt had balls?
What would she be then?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:54 pm to Stidham8
quote:
True. Nevada's only 6 votes though and New Hampshire is 4.
He could pair Nevada with New Hampshire and not need to win any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:54 pm to Stidham8
quote:
He's still 10 votes short and has to win 10 more from some states he won by very narrow margins in 2016 - Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). Or he's got to take Minnesota (10 votes)
It's certainly doable to get 1, but a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
Trump has to get one of the states he won in 2016. Biden would have to sweep all four states, and 3 of the four were Red in 2016.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:55 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
What if my aunt had balls?
What would she be then?
Whatever she chooses, you transphobic a-hole!!!!!
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:56 pm to ROPO
quote:
What if he loses Texas?
he would make it up by winning California
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:57 pm to ROPO
quote:
What if he loses Texas?
His wins in CA and NY will offset that loss...since we're in unicorn land.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to Stidham8
Trump conceded the House in 2018 and went after the Senate. I think 3 candidates that were under the poll water ended up winning.
History was on the side of the House flipping. Incumbent presidents hold an impressive record of winning a second term. The notable exception GB 1. Ross Perot cost the win over slick Willie.
History was on the side of the House flipping. Incumbent presidents hold an impressive record of winning a second term. The notable exception GB 1. Ross Perot cost the win over slick Willie.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
He could pair Nevada with New Hampshire and not need to win any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota.
The final RCP average for New Hampshire in 2016 was Clinton +0.6.
Biden's average is 8-9 points currently. It doesn't look to seriously be in play at the moment but we could see tightening in the final polls.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:59 pm to Stidham8
quote:
some on this board need to get a grip and realize this thing is going to be close.
fat chance.
i voted for Jo Jorgenson but i still see Biden winning this.
i do think it's gonna be very messy because so many people are passionate about Trump. at some point people will have to realize that even though Trump has not been treated fairly by the media, he still has also done a lot of damage to himself. it's easy for me to see from an outside perspective, but my close friends that are Trump supporters seem to pin it all on the media while ignoring Trumps rantings on twitter that do nothing except reinforce the people that are already behind him while driving others further away.
in an election that will most likely have the largest turnout percentage-wise in a long time, he should have worked harder the past 2 years expanding his base rather than solidifying the base he already had. (not like congress was getting much done in a gridlock anyway)
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:04 pm to ROPO
quote:
What if he loses Texas?
What if he wins CA or NY?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:06 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:a verified twitter user
What if my aunt had balls?
What would she be then?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:11 pm to sgallo3
quote:
in an election that will most likely have the largest turnout percentage-wise in a long time, he should have worked harder the past 2 years expanding his base rather than solidifying the base he already had. (not like congress was getting much done in a gridlock anyway)
You don't think BLM, Antifa and Hollywood idiotic displays expanded his base?
Seriously, the Leftist shite spreading across the Country should be a wake-up call to any normal human being. Wake up.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:12 pm to Stidham8
You weren't killed, your still posting. (or are you a Dem?)
You listed 4, he will take 2, maybe 3. Minnesota IS in play.
quote:
a clean sweep of those 3 midwest states would be as shocking as 2016, if not more shocking.
You listed 4, he will take 2, maybe 3. Minnesota IS in play.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:20 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
What if my aunt had balls?
What would she be then?
In pain.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 4:21 pm to Stidham8
Thank you for your concern...
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