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I am going into Tuesday night with the expectation that the dems will win the house
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:49 pm
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:49 pm
A few things to consider
1) over the last 100 years, the average seat loss by the party in power has been 30. Some even “great” presidents such as FDR saw 70(!) seats gone.
2) Hillary Clinton, as bad as she face planted on election night 2016, won A TON of Romney districts. These voters aren’t magically changing
3) I still think too many trump voters are not taking it as seriously as key dem groups
1) over the last 100 years, the average seat loss by the party in power has been 30. Some even “great” presidents such as FDR saw 70(!) seats gone.
2) Hillary Clinton, as bad as she face planted on election night 2016, won A TON of Romney districts. These voters aren’t magically changing
3) I still think too many trump voters are not taking it as seriously as key dem groups
25
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:49 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
K.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Hillary Clinton, as bad as she face planted on election night 2016, won A TON of Romney districts. These voters aren’t magically changing
You mean the way you just described them magically changing in the previous sentence?
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
That all but ensures an easy Trump victory in 2020.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:52 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Same. Not getting my hopes up.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:56 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I’m not worried about the house as much as the gubernatorial races. I think it’s really interesting and disturbing that essentially avowed socialist could win in big races. I’m interested to see where the independents break in the Florida and Georgia races specifically.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Thanks for the feels alert.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 8:58 pm to 91TIGER
quote:
That all but ensures an easy Trump victory in 2020.
The Dems winning the House wouldn’t be the worst thing ever. They will assuredly embarrass themselves for two years and it’s not like the GOP is competent enough to pass legislation anyway.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:08 pm to DallasTiger11
Hell dude, a dem house may even INCREASE trump re-election chances if they pass stuff like infrastructure and marijuana legalization and he signs it
Bill clinton playbook
Bill clinton playbook
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:14 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
over the last 100 years, the average seat loss by the party in power has been 30. Some even “great” presidents such as FDR saw 70(!) seats gone.
What happens to those numbers when you remove the WAVE elections? What do those numbers drop to when there is an economic boom election?
Because as a guy who follows this stuff way more than I should, when you move behind the chattering class clichés and factor in a booming economy, you realize that those numbers decrease SIGNIFICANTLY when Americans are prospering. When the job market is this good and wages are increasing that 30 seat average goes out the door. Since 1950 we have been in this spot four times and in each case the party in power held on by a comfortable margin.
In short, the economy is booming and the Democrats will be bitterly disappointed on Tuesday night.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:15 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I’m gonna start drinking at 5:30 and turn on the news. That worked for me in 2016 and I woke up feeling better than ever the next morning. I watched something historical that I didn’t believe could happen because I bought into the polls.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:24 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Hell dude, a dem house may even INCREASE trump re-election chances if they pass stuff like infrastructure and marijuana legalization and he signs it
I’ve had a theory that Trump has been expecting this and saved it for these two years.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:26 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
A few things to consider 1) over the last 100 years, the average seat loss by the party in power has been 30. Some even “great” presidents such as FDR saw 70(!) seats gone. 2) Hillary Clinton, as bad as she face planted on election night 2016, won A TON of Romney districts. These voters aren’t magically changing 3) I still think too many trump voters are not taking it as seriously as key dem groups
1. Wrong
2. Wrong
3. Wrong
4. Grow a pair. 'Murica.
Trust Trump. Trust Q. Trust the plan.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I’m puting together a couple spreadsheets detailing every toss-up race with statistics and some commentary on each one. I’m almost done and will make a thread and post them some time tomorrow.
You’re going to be surprised by what it shows.
Dems are not taking the House.
You’re going to be surprised by what it shows.
Dems are not taking the House.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:57 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Of course you are bc you are the closest thing we have to GOPe on this board, mate
This post was edited on 11/4/18 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 11/4/18 at 9:58 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You underestimate the power of MAGA.
The last two-three years have no precedent in U.S. political history. None of the old norms apply anymore.
The last two-three years have no precedent in U.S. political history. None of the old norms apply anymore.
This post was edited on 11/4/18 at 10:00 pm
Posted on 11/4/18 at 10:00 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
I’m puting together a couple spreadsheets detailing every toss-up race with statistics and some commentary on each one. I’m almost done and will make a thread and post them some time tomorrow.
You’re going to be surprised by what it shows.
Dems are not taking the House.
Wow. I was literally about to start a thread on this exact topic (spreadsheet), and you beat me to it.
Look forward to reading what you find.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 10:01 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You are wrong on number 2 and number 3
#2:
SO many have walked away from the dem party. No it wasn’t magic. It was their astonishment at how far off the rails the Dems have gone on multiple levels- those in power, those in the media, and the brainwashed psychotic antifa types
#3:
We will show up in droves. We are taking it seriously and we WANT to vote. Threat or no threat, we WANT to show our support for justice, freedom, and what’s right.
#2:
SO many have walked away from the dem party. No it wasn’t magic. It was their astonishment at how far off the rails the Dems have gone on multiple levels- those in power, those in the media, and the brainwashed psychotic antifa types
#3:
We will show up in droves. We are taking it seriously and we WANT to vote. Threat or no threat, we WANT to show our support for justice, freedom, and what’s right.
Posted on 11/4/18 at 10:28 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
I’m puting together a couple spreadsheets detailing every toss-up race with statistics and some commentary on each one. I’m almost done and will make a thread and post them some time tomorrow.
Can I get an advance copy? Lol
Posted on 11/4/18 at 10:32 pm to Cajunese
quote:
Wow. I was literally about to start a thread on this exact topic (spreadsheet), and you beat me to it.
Look forward to reading what you find.
Yep! I have like 44 Republican toss-ups input and analyzed, and I only see about 13 Dem pickups. Maybe 18 on a worst case scenario.
But this doesn’t even include the Dem toss-ups that Republicans will likely win. There’s 3-6 of those from what I can see. But not done doing my full analysis of those yet.
I’m going to do the Senate too.
I’ll finish up tomorrow and post em all up in their own thread.
From what I can see so far, Dems net +7 to +15 House seats, and lose -4 to -9 Senate seats.
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