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re: Elon Musk says don't go to medical school as surgeons will be obsolete in 48 months.

Posted on 1/11/26 at 6:53 am to
Posted by SouthEasternKaiju
SouthEast... you figure it out
Member since Aug 2021
47223 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 6:53 am to
Medbeds & holodoctors incoming!
Posted by BCvol
Member since Jan 2022
508 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:07 am to
In a broad sense he’s probably giving very good advice to high school students. The cost of healthcare has been a runaway train for decades. At some point the technology will replace most doctors simply because it will make economic sense. I would caution anyone currently in HS considering taking student loans to consider the effect AI could have on their career choice.

What is the timeframe for a student just entering college to get to the point where paying off loans as a MD becomes easy?

Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
91557 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:08 am to
quote:

Free in what way?
These geniuses close to AI say things will be so simple and abundant due to AI that they’ll be free or close to it.

I am skeptical.
Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6916 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:14 am to
quote:

Airplane flights and car ownership used to be only for the very rich. Now they’re ubiquitous.

Same with libraries, computers, and so on.

Accessible to everyone for relatively cheap.

With continuous and accelerating technological advancements, great medical care will be there too. For cheap. It’s already on the way.



That's all fine and well. But what does it have to do with the issue I raised, which was with his comment that the "best medicine in the world" would be "free"? Are cars free? Are flights free? Why would the best medicine become free?

He just says things, and never thinks about why he's saying it. Such an outrageous declaration demands explanation.
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
19570 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:18 am to
His time line is a little optimistic. Robots have been used during surgery for a while now, and, currently in brain surgery at a very rapid rate.
I cannot tell you the number of lawsuits I have seen in this space due to human error....and, it has been reduced through the use of robots dramatically.
So, I believe Elon is ultimately correct...I give it 10 years.
Have your kids who want to be doctors pursue paths other than surgical because, yes, that is going away at some point in advanced countries.

Cardiologist, Neurologist, PCP, etc will always be needed.
Posted by SaintsTiger
1,000,000 Posts
Member since Oct 2014
2107 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:19 am to
quote:

That's all fine and well. But what does it have to do with the issue I raised, which was with his comment that the "best medicine in the world" would be "free"? Are cars free? Are flights free?

Why would the best medicine become free? He just says things, and never thinks about why he's saying it. Such an outrageous declaration demands explanation.


Decent medical care is already free for a lot of people around the world.

We’re entering the age of abundance. A lot of things will be very close to free or very affordable.



Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3698 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:52 am to
0% chance of this

Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6916 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:54 am to
quote:

Decent medical care is already free for a lot of people around the world.

We’re entering the age of abundance. A lot of things will be very close to free or very affordable.



So you actually believe that there is such a thing as free health care? Are you familiar with what socialism is? It is a system of handouts, with the verbiage that it is "free". But nothing is produced for free. Things don't simply pay for themselves. The government pays for it. but who pays the government? The tax payers. So, if we just use our brains a little bit, and stop and think for one second... What do you suppose will happen when/if "free" healthcare is given out here, and what do you suppose is already happening in the countries who claim to have it? Sky high taxes. You won't be able to own anything, but at least you'll have that "free" healthcare, right?
This post was edited on 1/11/26 at 7:55 am
Posted by ryanlsu
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
1392 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:56 am to
He’s not saying surgeons should quit now. But even if he is off by 5 years it is still good advice. If you are thinking about going to med school and being a surgeon you are years away from performing actual surgery. And then you need to start making money to pay back your loans. And even if robots just take over the “routine” surgeries there will still be less demand for surgery.
Posted by ChatGPT of LA
Member since Mar 2023
6382 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 7:59 am to
Robots do it all
Posted by ChatGPT of LA
Member since Mar 2023
6382 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:01 am to
quote:

Who will be the human in the decision tree? A high school graduate?


Well, it does take 12 yrs of med/surgery school
Posted by ChatGPT of LA
Member since Mar 2023
6382 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:15 am to
quote:

So you actually believe that there is such a thing as free health care? Are you familiar with what socialism is? It is a system of handouts, with the verbiage that it is "free". But nothing is produced for free. Things don't simply pay for themselves. The government pays for it. but who pays the government? The tax payers. So, if we just use our brains a little bit, and stop and think for one second... What do you suppose will happen when/if "free" healthcare is given out here, and what do you suppose is already happening in the countries who claim to have it? Sky high taxes. You won't be able to own anything, but at least you'll have that "free" healthcare, right


Oh boy....always that guy

I dont think u grasp what's going on with Ai and other advanced methods.
His mind runs so far in advance of what you think.
When he says free...hes basically saying no more 100k doctors bills to get the best care. He's saying the equivalent of a phone booth will diagnose, take vitals, labs, etc...on the spot with better knowledge than the very best in the world.
Sure, the making of the phone booth, etc will have a cost...but the knowledge, and most execution of surgery, will be by computer advanced products.
El9ns mind is moving at a pace beyond comparison. So when he says free, sure its glossing over general costs. He means the knowledge that we pay for.
A cardiologist of 50 years, doesn't know half of what Ai can calculate in 1 second, with all information accessible
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139054 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:20 am to
quote:

I cannot tell you the number of lawsuits I have seen in this space due to human error....and, it has been reduced through the use of robots dramatically.
I'd be surprised if that ultimately bears out. Robot assisted work is still subject to error, and, in the US system, suits arise regardless.

However, less surgery is performed with robotics at present, so related suits would be more rare. The additional factor is surgeons using robotics tend toward the upper echelon which mitigates risk as well.
Posted by Metaloctopus
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2018
6916 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:22 am to
quote:

Oh boy....always that guy

I dont think u grasp what's going on with Ai and other advanced methods.
His mind runs so far in advance of what you think.
When he says free...hes basically saying no more 100k doctors bills to get the best care. He's saying the equivalent of a phone booth will diagnose, take vitals, labs, etc...on the spot with better knowledge than the very best in the world.
Sure, the making of the phone booth, etc will have a cost...but the knowledge, and most execution of surgery, will be by computer advanced products.
El9ns mind is moving at a pace beyond comparison. So when he says free, sure its glossing over general costs. He means the knowledge that we pay for.
A cardiologist of 50 years, doesn't know half of what Ai can calculate in 1 second, with all information accessible


It's funny how you call me "that guy", but here you are being "that guy" who just believes whatever Musk says, and you rattle off a bunch of nonsense off the top of your head that is nothing more than a hopeful guess.

Something is either free or it isn't. Advancements in technology do not equal lower costs to the consumer. It would only mean lower cost to the provider. Why do I have a 1,600 dollar bill just for taking a pee test and getting an antibiotic? You think they did anything that was actually worth that much money, just for that? Of course not. Hospitals will always overcharge, no matter what technology you put in front of them.

That's the real world, friend. I live there. You're living in fantasy land.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139054 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:30 am to
quote:

A cardiologist of 50 years, doesn't know half of what Ai can calculate in 1 second
Yes and no. An ongoing MI does not require information beyond what that cardiologist can assimilate. It requires solution(s) based on the information. That comprises the difference between ANI (present tech) and AGI (future tech).

Again, there is a reason passenger jets still have human flight crews when current tech has the capacity to fully automate air travel.
Posted by Bunkie7672
Member since Mar 2020
1306 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:30 am to
quote:

El9ns mind is moving at a pace beyond comparison.


Lol
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3698 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:48 am to
quote:

I dont think u grasp what's going on with Ai and other advanced methods.


I don’t think you grasp what goes on in an OR suite or the complexities of human anatomy.

Where can I bet my life savings that Elon Musk’s timeline will be incorrect? Kalshi?

I could use an early retirement.
Posted by MrSpock
Member since Sep 2015
5126 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 8:48 am to
quote:

At some point the technology will replace most doctors simply because it will make economic sense. I would caution anyone currently in HS considering taking student loans to consider the effect AI could have on their career choice.


So ALL professions. You think if they can code a robot to perform intricate cardiac and neurosurgeries they can't code it to weld?
This post was edited on 1/11/26 at 9:21 am
Posted by FriedEggBowL
MS
Member since Nov 2021
1514 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 9:11 am to
he's really misguided here. there are far too many variables in medicine and surgery in particular. someone still has to program the robot. and not all bodies operated on are the same. a surgeon is always running into something unexpected that makes him have to think through it and adjust. Elon is talking like every surgery is cookie cutter.
Posted by AirbusDawg
Milton, Ga
Member since Jan 2018
3062 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 9:16 am to
Just fricking great, my daughter is in her last year of med school!
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