re: Dr Jared Diamond predicts there's 50-50 chance civilization crumbles in the next 25 years

This is literally the same as standing on a street corner with a sign saying The End is Nigh!

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It's already crumbled

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The world is effectively as its peak. Between 2008 and 2026 is the best time to be a human on earth.

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Humanity will find ways to allocate resources.

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Malthusian prophecy failed because of the green revolution but there’s only so many times they can pull that rabbit out of the hat


The problem with the green revolution is it turned continents with millions of people who can’t feed themselves into continents with billions of people that can’t feed themselves

U itil something gets done about Propaganda, it's only going to get worse

Think about it.. 40% of women are cheering for a woman that killed her 3 kids. That's pretty damn crumbling to me

One thing that has some credence in the US. It has nothing to do with climate change, just a simple groundwater renewal problem with a critical aquifer that makes a large part of our ag industry run.

The Ogallala Aquifer is being exhausted quicker than geologically feasible for it to be renewed/refreshed with water from Rocky Mountain melt, rainwater, etc.

Many ecologists in the 19th century concluded that the rainfall totals from the Great Plains and westward would not be sufficient for significant ag industry. We've beaten those findings due to human intervention like diverting rivers for irrigation and the discovery of a massive aquifer in the Plains.

All the corp of engineering work is falling apart due to population growth going past what can be engineered to work with the water sources in the West and the refresh of the aquifer is greatly exceeded by utilization for livestock, crops, etc.

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U itil something gets done about Propaganda, it's only going to get worse

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Talk about propaganda....

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It's already crumbled and the only ones trying to save it are Trump and his entire team

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Idiot

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Not included in your response: support

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The 80’s say hello

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We always romanticize our childhood no matter how good or bad it was.

The 80's were awesome, even though we were in the midst of the cold war and the threat of an ELE was much more real than anything we have going on today.

No one really knows. Every day we throw food away that could feed millions of people. We've also leveed up the rivers to where new nutrients cant be deposited into the soil through flood events, and vast amounts of those nutrients get wasted by being dumped by the Mississippi into the gulf every year.

At the same time, climate change (whether natural or not), is going to open up a whole host of new areas to cultivation that previously existed under permafrost or were otherwise too cold to farm. For better or worse, we are also growing meat and food in labs now.

I dont think it'll collapse, but its definitely going to require some hard-core adaptation that is hopefully proactive rather than reactive.

Late Prof Paul Erlich at Stanford really knew his butterflies. When he extrapolated to human populations and wrote Population Bomb he got the dire predictions wrong. Prof Jared Diamond of Berkeley has a broader scientific background, but on his way to considering mankind he gained some niche knowledge about tropical island birds that he chose to consider theoretically important. Both scientists have enjoyed the applause that comes to "public intellectuals". There is little reason to think other than them being smart, that either are especially able to predict Our collective future .