re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

No, that’s a random photo I found on the internet.

NYC is a lost cause and will have lots of death. The number from today, as the time of this post, that I feel good about is California with only 3 deaths.

If California can keep things under control we will get through this pretty quickly since the rural area of the country has a lot os of counties without a single case yet.

Between Iowa, MN and WI alone there are over 150 counties without a single case.

But I thought it was said that Cali had a 50 (or was it 70?) % increase in hospital admissions for covid since I think Thursday??

It sounded dire.

this is a good discussion about a roadmap to getting out of isolation. Scott G is former FDA director.
Summary below link. But no timelines given.
Key is once an area sees 14 days of decreasing cases and hospitals can handle cases, they could more to phase 2, but may have to go back to phase 1 with uptick.

LINK

The road map from Gottlieb and several co-authors, including Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, envisions four phases. Phase 1 represents the current situation, in which the outbreak is growing. Only once certain thresholds are met — hospitals are able to cope with the flow of incoming patients and new cases have dropped in a particular area for at least 14 days — could Phase 2 begin.

State-by-State Reopening in Phase II. Individual states can move to Phase II when they are able to safely diagnose, treat, and isolate COVID-19 cases and their contacts. During this phase, schools and businesses can reopen, and much of normal life can begin to resume in a phased approach. However, some physical distancing measures and limitations on gatherings will still need to be in place to prevent transmission from accelerating again. For older adults (those over age 60), those with underlying health conditions, and other populations at heightened risk from COVID-19, continuing to limit time in the community will be important.

I’m not sure of what to make of it honestly. Definitely wouldn’t say it was positive. The two doctors said about what I’d expect, but Trump threw me off a bit based on his earlier comments this week. He’s hard to read though. Oddly, I could see him doing this while also having some knowledge that those drugs are working to some extent, in order to give an extra boost to hope and the economy once it’s announced. Then, he can come off as not being too eager to re-open, but instead blame it on the meds working for the earlier opening. Moving the goal posts a bit, if you will.

I’m probably being over optimistic though. I’m just beyond ready for this to end, and for life to get back to normal again.

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Dr Fauci saying we will see a million cases and 100 to 200K dead

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Which side of the fence is this guy on?
Seems to me like he is on the MSM side.
Noone under 40 has yet to kick the bucket without pre-existing conditions, yet he is calling for 4 more months of compelte shutdown... despite the fact that it still won't prevent the spread to every human in the USA.

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If California can keep things under control we will get through this pretty quickly

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I tend to agree.

Just CA, TX, NY and FL are 1/3 of the nation's population. The tri-state area (NYC, Northern NJ and CT) is, by far the most densely populated.

Once Florida, Chicago, Atlanta, the big Texas cities and, maybe Michigan/Ohio, cycle through, there just aren't the swaths of big population pockets that can get slammed by this thing. Isolated, manageable pockets, sure, but nothing like we've seen in NY. The nation's peak will be the tri-state area's peak, and the rest will likely be aftershocks, by comparison.

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Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the information coming from the administration now is "get ready, this is going to get bad"

Anyone see this differently?

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I think Trump used that Fauci number as the reason to extend the social distancing guidelines (which should be indefinite anyway). Trump mentioned they were going to have a press conference Tuesday night to go over new findings/data, so I think we will know a lot more by Wednesday morning.

Trump just said in an interview with Fox and Friends that "we will know more about hydroxychloroquine within days". Lines up with his Tuesday night press conference timeline.

All of this is true but it is important to remember that, while not numerically impressive, those smaller pockets can get hit just as hard or harder.

For example, Lee county (Auburn) has over 50 cases and I heard over half of those are at the only real hospital for that region. Supposedly had uhaul trucks at the vet school to get their ventilators to bring over to the hospital

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The growth rate of new cases as a country as a whole has been on the decline for several days straight now. But that is only going to matter if California, Chicago, and Florida keep things under control.

Washington has things under control in their state.

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And if the Louisiana hotspot stays contained and doesn't turn Texas in to another hotspot.