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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:35 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:35 am to Chromdome35
Good job. Your numbers are very close to those on the Hopkins site. I wouldn't worry too much about any differences since the situation is so fluid with multiple data sources.
The charts and graphs are great and will be even more revealing as the days go on.
Anyone could have predicted the US mortality rate would decline last week as it was obvious there was little to no testing and, clearly, all dead bodies would be counted.
A big driver in the rise of the denominator is the testing program in New York which is now going great guns and identifying many "new" cases. Sadly, I also think it's likely the death figures will begin climbing on a steeper curve as the lag time between detection of an infection and death appears to be fairly long. Two to three weeks.
At 176 (or 178) the recovery number seems distressingly low. This might be a simple matter of lower priority on the part recordkeepers and, hopefully, will increase significantly.
The charts and graphs are great and will be even more revealing as the days go on.
Anyone could have predicted the US mortality rate would decline last week as it was obvious there was little to no testing and, clearly, all dead bodies would be counted.
A big driver in the rise of the denominator is the testing program in New York which is now going great guns and identifying many "new" cases. Sadly, I also think it's likely the death figures will begin climbing on a steeper curve as the lag time between detection of an infection and death appears to be fairly long. Two to three weeks.
At 176 (or 178) the recovery number seems distressingly low. This might be a simple matter of lower priority on the part recordkeepers and, hopefully, will increase significantly.
2
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:36 am to BigAppleBucky
I wouldn’t pay attention to the recovery numbers right now
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:38 am to BigAppleBucky
quote:
At 176 (or 178) the recovery number seems distressingly low. This might be a simple matter of lower priority on the part recordkeepers and, hopefully, will increase significantly.
Recovery requires two negative tests. With lags in reporting, this could take 5 days in a perfect world. And it requires two tests. So I would guess new case testing is getting priority.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:45 am to Chromdome35
Awesome thanks.
I had not come across that one yet
I had not come across that one yet
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:46 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I would love to add that if I could find a good source of data. Do you have one?
The Louisiana Department of Health site someone linked on PT had a running total of both private lab and the other category tests along with cases by county as well. Showed total tests, confirmed cases, etc. Very good info for Louisiana on that site.
That one only had Lousiana info but assuming the data is kept up to date on no more than a daily basis it provides great timely info.
Might not be a bad idea for everyone in an SEC or ACC state and any other states represented on TD to keep up with their state's numbers via each state's Dept of Health site. May not tell us the entire nation's numbers but would provide a good sizable sample size of the trends re: (positive/negative tests), number of tests conducted, serious cases, mortality rate for a large section of the country. Those numbers could be tracked to give us really good up to date data trends especially with regard to number of tests and ration of positive to negative test results.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 11:52 am to the808bass
quote:
At 176 (or 178) the recovery number seems distressingly low. This might be a simple matter of lower priority on the part recordkeepers and, hopefully, will increase significantly.
"recovery" also takes a very long time, possibly over 20 days just to test negative after symptoms show
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:02 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
Those numbers could be tracked to give us really good up to date data trends especially with regard to number of tests and ration of positive to negative test results.
florida beach goers will be interested in these numbers in 3 weeks.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Death numbers tell the story IMO
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:12 pm to Chromdome35
Aren’t we now seeing the desired “flattening” of the curve?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:14 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Aren’t we now seeing the desired “flattening” of the curve?
Those are mid day numbers, end of day will tell the tale.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:17 pm to NYNolaguy1
Well the last three days growth of cases as a percent has been lower than the day before
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:26 pm to NYNolaguy1
Today's numbers starting to go up...
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:29 pm to Chromdome35
11,500 new US cases today 
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:34 pm to RunningBlake
New York approaching 60% of all current cases.
Half of new deaths.
Half of new deaths.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:35 pm to RunningBlake
12,549 now.
Moving up quick.
Moving up quick.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:36 pm to GatorReb
How is this possible unless some that were supposed to be yesterday are getting reported today?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:37 pm to GatorReb
Not very good trends the last few days
It's only noon and already 12,000 new cases
It's only noon and already 12,000 new cases
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:39 pm to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 12:35pm CST, These are NOT final numbers for the day. I will update throughout the day
NOTE: Until the end of the day the growth rate numbers for the day are NOT correct.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:44 pm to Bunyan
quote:
Not very good trends the last few days
It's only noon and already 12,000 new cases
*Sigh*
It's because we're finally testing for the virus en masse. Everyone knew the numbers would spike as tests become more widely available. Settle down.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 12:49 pm to RollTide1987
Yes we knew they would. But that’s not going to stop the general public and government from freaking out even more and clamping down even harder.
I’ve said it before. But I’m not worried about the virus itself. There is enough out there that more than likely a healthy person will be fine. I’m just worried about the hysteria and stock market and government lock down. All which is fueled by these numbers continuing to go up.
I’ve said it before. But I’m not worried about the virus itself. There is enough out there that more than likely a healthy person will be fine. I’m just worried about the hysteria and stock market and government lock down. All which is fueled by these numbers continuing to go up.
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