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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:57 am to the808bass
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:57 am to the808bass
quote:somebody peaking behind the curtain.
In the real world, it doesn’t matter. In the model world, where policy is being made, it absolutely matters
0
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:04 am to bfniii
quote:Seriously? Your inability to understand exponential growth, despite numerous poster explaining it to you, is strange.
from 3/7 to 3/16 the deaths did not rise exponentially.
Deaths did grow exponentially from 03/07 to 03/16, by almost exactly 20.5% daily.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:09 am to bfniii
quote:I am clearly speculating, but I don’t think it’s alarmist to think that the third-world will do worse than 2nd highest rated healthcare system according to the WHO.
again, this seems alarmist based on the numbers so far. you could end up being right but there doesn't seem to be any data that warrants such a conclusion
quote:Maybe, but you definitely don’t have any evidence to make an absolute claim like that.
if the malarial connection is cogent, this will not be the case
quote:What? Relative to the rest of the world there are.
only if you ignore what goes on every year. there are diseases in india that are resistant to all known antibiotics, yet, there aren't rampant deaths.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:14 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
2nd highest rated healthcare system according to the WHO.
If you have the “second best defense” in the country and you give up 800 yards rushing in a game, I submit that the ranking may in question.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:16 am to buckeye_vol
Not to you specifically Buckeye.
Former director of CDC
It’s CNN
I think he’s speaking in the context of New York City and other population centers that have a major cluster.
Pretty good article overall. I thought the above stood out and was relevant for this thread.
Former director of CDC
It’s CNN
quote:
Explosive spread will almost certainly overwhelm health care capacity in New York City and elsewhere, and lead to the inability to save patients who could otherwise have been saved. Today's severe cases are in people infected 10 to 14 days ago who got sick five to six days ago and have steadily progressed to severe illness. That means cases will continue to skyrocket for weeks after spread stops. Not only won't there be enough ventilators, there won't be enough supplies for the ventilators, hospital beds to support patients -- or health care workers to help patients.
I think he’s speaking in the context of New York City and other population centers that have a major cluster.
Pretty good article overall. I thought the above stood out and was relevant for this thread.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 10:27 am
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:18 am to BobBoucher
quote:
Not only won't there be enough ventilators, there won't be enough supplies for the ventilators, hospital beds to support patients -- or health care workers to help patients.
So they’re projecting over 3M cases of CV.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:20 am to Janky
quote:my take - this virus has been unusual statistically speaking, up to this point. much of h1n1 was not understood statistically until at least a year after it abated. however, this virus seems to prefer a narrow target demographic in certain places. that makes it difficult to determine the r0 value.
So, what are these numbers showing us? Is it getting better or worse?
there has been a spike in cases the last 4 days but, testing has ramped up significantly in that time. so, it's hard to know if we're just seeing transmissions or patients who were already in the infection pipeline getting confirmed.
the numbers that are coming in each day are a mixed bag. iow, there doesn't seem to be direct correlations at this time.
given that this virus allows most people to be asymptomatic and that this virus was almost assuredly in the us before the first documented case prevents all the numbers we're looking at right now from being definitive
side note - it has been noticed that malarial countries are not seeing significant instances of 19. it is possible their anti malarial medicine can be a preventative
tldr: getting worse? sure. how much? tbd
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:20 am to the808bass
quote:
So they’re projecting over 3M cases of CV.
No. I added that he’s likely referencing New York (he mentioned above) and other population centers where explosive growth has occurred.
I would assume his statement is referring to localized challenges.
Which means if we can mobilize doctors and equipment from other areas, we may be able to mitigate that outcome.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 10:22 am
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:21 am to BobBoucher
quote:
I would assume his statement is referring to localized challenges
Labor will be the boundary far more than beds and vents.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:22 am to the808bass
quote:
Labor will be the boundary far more than beds and vents.
Yeah. Esp as they become ill. And I’m not sure states will be too excited to send their docs out of state.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:24 am to bfniii
quote:
from 3/7 to 3/16 the deaths did not rise exponentially.
You keep saying this but this is fundamentally wrong.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:34 am to buckeye_vol
quote:daily growth of deaths on 3/7 was 3. 3/15 was 9. that is not exponential. that is 3x.
Deaths did grow exponentially from 03/07 to 03/16, by almost exactly 20.5% daily
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:37 am to buckeye_vol
quote:it's not happening so far. why are they so far behind? there are plenty of chinese connections in africa.
I don’t think it’s alarmist to think that the third-world will do worse than 2nd highest rated healthcare system according to the WHO
quote:other than looking at a map of the virus?
you definitely don’t have any evidence to make an absolute claim like that
quote:that wasn't the point. the point was you don't see bubonic plague like deaths every year in india despite your own admission that they are not elite at healthcare
What? Relative to the rest of the world there are
Posted on 3/21/20 at 10:41 am to bfniii
quote:
3
quote:
9
quote:
3x
Do you know what exponentially means?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:08 am to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 11:05 AM CST, These are not final numbers for the day, they will go up throughout the day.
NOTE: Until the end of the day, the growth rate numbers will not be correct.
Note: This contains the final update for yesterday and the first update of today's numbers.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:13 am to bfniii
quote:How do you not understand exponential growth? I even wrote out examples for you a few days ago.
daily growth of deaths on 3/7 was 3. 3/15 was 9. that is not exponential. that is 3x.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:21 am to buckeye_vol
At this point he has to be trolling. No one can be that stupid.
Also: (another) Trump press conference in 10 minutes. At least the stock market won't be open.
Also: (another) Trump press conference in 10 minutes. At least the stock market won't be open.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:26 am to Chromdome35
Those trends 
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:27 am to Chromdome35
Promising that the CFR continues to fall
Posted on 3/21/20 at 11:28 am to Chromdome35
This is by far the best thread on all this 
I’m a big fan of how that mortality rate is dropping.
I’m a big fan of how that mortality rate is dropping.
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