re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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Would be great for the world if they are just an extreme outlier due to many factors hopefully not shared by us or too much of anyone else for that matter.

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I believe they will end in an outlier in the developed world, but I’m afraid as it is starting to spread and people are getting tested in Africa, South America, India, etc., Italy’s CFR may be the norm in those places if not worse.

Frankly, I think India is going to be the place
where it really gets out of control, with its total population close to China’s with nearly 3 times the density, and a far less developed infrastructure to handle things, and without the authoritarian measures (a good thing usually) to put in place like China did.

I’m surprised it’s not getting more coverage, since they are already way behind on testing (and we know the negative outcomes associated with that), but especially after I found this article:

India’s First Line Of Defense Against The Coronavirus Is An Army Of 900,000 Women Without Masks Or Hand Sanitizer

This all just seems like a recipe for total disaster, and all those risks that the rest of the world has done a decent enough job limiting, are likely to show up in a country with 1.3 billion people.

Edit: And India has a population density 2 times Italy’s, with 7% (139th vs. 25th) the per capita nominal GDP, and rates way lower in the human development index as well, a hundreds spots lower globally (129th vs. 29th).They have a more people in extreme poverty than Italy has altogether (73 million vs 60 million).

As it pertains to healthcare directly, WHO’s healthcare rankings has Italy as 2nd and Italy as 112th. In addition, Italy has 3.4 hospital
beds per 1,000 compared to only 0.7 in India (older days though), and 12.5 ICU beds per 100,000 compared to 2.3 in India. To put that into context, despite only about 25% of the population, the United States has nearly 6.7 times more ICU beds, which would be the equivalent of a little over 4,200 ICU beds in the US.

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Serious cases has been at 64 for 3 days.

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That figure has clearly been wrong this whole time, since more people dying and rapidly rising than in serious condition Is just a logical impossibility.

Deaths per capita don’t matter.

Think of it this way. The case fatality rate for people who jump off the Empire State Building without a parachute is 100%. However for people who don’t make the jump, it is 0%. Similarly, in a nation of X million people, there is a percentage who are infected with this, and a percentage who aren’t. Comparing the number of deaths to people who haven’t been exposed to the risk of dying of that cause creates a meaningless statistic.

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Shaping up to be a bad day.

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Settle down. Data is going to come in peaks and valleys. Analysis after a peak or valley is of little value. These buckets of new cases and deaths are daily stats.

So, what are these numbers showing us? Is it getting better or worse?

If you go into the worldometers website and look at the state you will see that NY is the crisis center right now. they have almost 50% of the US cases.

Similarly, in Louisiana 80% of the cases are in Greater NOLA, specifically Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.

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omphaloskepsis

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Nice word. I'm going to put it in my quiver next to defenestration.

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The prediction is for what would happen without intervention

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i don't recall us doing any of this in 2009. pretty much everyone in their homes. entire industries halted.

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Entire nations and billions of people have gone under lockdown to halt the spread of this disease.

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the us would not be one of those countries and the spread has not been catastrophic to this point. any social measures taken in the us were way late in the game, medically speaking. moreover, this is the not the only outbreak worldwide where entire nations did not shut down.

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You don't find it remarkable that despite that it is completely uncontained and growing exponentially?

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i find that your characterization is hyperbolic and a tad hysterical. this happens EVERY YEAR with the seasonal flu. 10's of thousands of people die. 60k 2 years ago.

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As far as the increase in testing, that would not explain the deaths, which also generally appear to be increasing exponentially as well

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again, context is needed here. from 3/7 to 3/16 the deaths did not rise exponentially. only if you look at the data with your head tilted a certain way is that the case. the last 3 days, the increase in deaths has been basically even while case count went up.

you might not be aware that still, nearly 50% of the total us deaths are coming from 3 states, essentially 3 or 4 msa's.

you seem to think we're early in the game when we're not. peak flu season activity is 4, maybe 5 months. the first chinese case was reported in dec. it was almost assuredly in the us at that time according to the testimony of plenty of people. since that's the case, it's remarkable that there aren't even half a million cases worldwide, much less many millions of cases. you can point to asian efforts if you want but i'm just going to ask the same question - why aren't we doing this every year in the us for the seasonal flu.

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Italy’s CFR may be the norm in those places if not worse

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again, this seems alarmist based on the numbers so far. you could end up being right but there doesn't seem to be any data that warrants such a conclusion

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I think India is going to be the place where it really gets out of control

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if the malarial connection is cogent, this will not be the case

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This all just seems like a recipe for total disaster

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only if you ignore what goes on every year. there are diseases in india that are resistant to all known antibiotics, yet, there aren't rampant deaths.