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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:56 pm to
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63853 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:56 pm to
Some testing weirdness from CA...

LINK (Twitter)
quote:

The biggest thing in this update is that California added 75k+ negative test results and only 1300 new positives. This must be a reporting restatement.

It's a HUGE change in the testing metrics for the state, and it is very good news, if the numbers can be believed.


Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8289 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:10 pm to
I think one of the takeaways from this will be the need for a much more consistent and reliable reporting system.

There is a lot of variability in the numbers due to different states reporting in different ways.

Its slowed down the response to the outbreak.
Posted by AUFanInSoCal
Orange County
Member since Nov 2007
1616 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:17 pm to
Backlog?

California has tested 126,000 people. Of those, 13,000 test results are still pending as of Friday. That's down from the 59,500 pending results that were reported Thursday.

LINK
Posted by Tigerbait357
Member since Jun 2011
71164 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:33 pm to
quote:

I think one of the takeaways from this will be the need for a much more consistent and reliable reporting system.

There is a lot of variability in the numbers due to different states reporting in different ways.

Its slowed down the response to the outbreak.



That is what has made this entire thing confusing when trying to analyze some of the numbers.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63853 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 11:43 pm to
quote:

I think one of the takeaways from this will be the need for a much more consistent and reliable reporting system.
Would be simple to do. But government is in charge of it so...

quote:

Its slowed down the response to the outbreak.
Yep.
Posted by thetigerman
Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
Member since Sep 2006
3630 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:31 am to
Do you think they became part of today’s statistics?
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 7:41 am to
Posted by dafif
Member since Jan 2019
8598 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 7:50 am to
RD Dawg
quote:

The link I posted is a PREDICTER of Influenza and has been a pretty accurate barometer CV-19. Nothing to do with today's numbers


RD, I did not post in reply to you. Sorry if misconstrued. I'm interested in Fla. numbers specifically. Actually typed that at 6pm and forget to hit enter to post, LoL.
Posted by dafif
Member since Jan 2019
8598 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 8:13 am to
FLORIDA-Current

11545 total cases
1470 hospital admissions
195 deaths.

Point 1 - clearly no hospital overload

Point 2 1.68% death rate

Point 3 apporx 6700 cases in Palm Beach, Ft Laud and Miami.

Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
36379 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 8:29 am to
Great start to the day so far. Lower than normal at this point, even for a Sunday.
Posted by bfniii
Member since Nov 2005
17840 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 9:23 am to
as people have been noticing, it is time to stop thinking of this as a national outbreak.

the top hotspots outside of nyc msa (just in terms of total numbers)
la
mich
ill
wash
cali

account for a whopping grand total of 1800 deaths after at least 3 months of outbreak. that includes cali with a huge, huge contingent of asians and frequent travel between cali and chini

this is neither a national outbreak nor a bad outbreak. nyc is skewing the numbers in a way that can't be overstated.

shutting down the country has been a monumental mistake.
Posted by RD Dawg
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2012
28357 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:01 am to
Got it.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96151 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:04 am to
quote:

Great start to the day so far. Lower than normal at this point, even for a Sunday.




I'm not overly stoked because weekend reporting is consistently hinky, but, as you suggest, it is trending down and we'll take it.
Posted by uppermidwestbama
Member since Nov 2014
2097 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:15 am to
This is the week that you will see the results from social distancing and shuttingn down businesses, events, and sports.

There will be plenty of death, but you will see more recoveries and continued decrease in new confirmed cases growth rate.

The deaths you will see this week are mostly from the first week before social distancing/shutdown or the first week into it (already exposed).

For NYC we will know if they are over the peak this week.
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
37392 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:15 am to
667 new deaths today. Nearly 10k new cases. Ugh.
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:18 am to
600 of those are in New York
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96151 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:20 am to
quote:

667 new deaths today. Nearly 10k new cases. Ugh.




Middling projection for today is ~1500 deaths. Headed for mid 2000s next weekend.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 10:21 am
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:22 am to
“Worse” in numbers of deaths but that is expected given the % of those on vents not making it. To me “worse” would be spikes in hospitalizations and vent use but I’m just voicing my thoughts.

Not by any means saying deaths aren’t bad but it’s a crapshoot it seems.

Oh and Cuomo just said 75% of those in ny are being discharged from hospital. Also he said “the vulnerable should stay isolated and protected”. Really?

Why am I home?
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 10:23 am
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Middling projection for today is ~1500 deaths. Headed for mid 2000s next weekend.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

The projections for April 5th were above 1,500, according to this.

We are pretty much right on track. And yes, it will get worse for 10-12 days, in terms of deaths.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96151 posts
Posted on 4/5/20 at 10:24 am to
quote:

“Worse” in numbers of deaths but that is expected given the % of those on vents not making it. To me “worse” would be spikes in hospitalizations and vent use but I’m just voicing my thoughts.



Maybe I'm focusing on effects too much. Personally, I DGAF about hospitalization spikes, assuming they're getting reasonable outcomes. Now, ventilator - that's almost a death sentence, so that is a concern.

Deaths being, ultimately, a trailing indicator of the pandemic waning doesn't make it better for folks who lose people at the end of the chain.
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