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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/4/20 at 8:52 pm to uppermidwestbama
Posted on 4/4/20 at 8:52 pm to uppermidwestbama
1
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:04 pm to the808bass
quote:
I would expect to see 8,000-10,000 deaths per day around 10 days from now. Somewhere around 25% of new cases 10 days prior.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
EDIT: They did downgrade Friday to 1050 deaths, a 271 change.
Where did those 271 deaths go?
ETA: Ah, to today. Got it.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:15 pm to I B Freeman
Link your post you want me to look at.
Eta: Never mind. I replied to you in that thread.
Eta: Never mind. I replied to you in that thread.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:21 pm to Chromdome35
So still more than corona”theworstplagueinhistory”virus, right?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:23 pm to thetigerman
I was giving the approximate date of first case and giving CDC data for total deaths
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:23 pm to uppermidwestbama
great graph but those colors confusing as hell. The blues are hard to differentiate.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:24 pm to the808bass
The models have all been wrong and way overestimating deaths.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:27 pm to Drizzt
quote:
The models have all been wrong and way overestimating deaths.
I'd rather have that than the opposite which we saw in late February where people weren't taking this seriously enough.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:29 pm to Eat Your Crow
nyc has 51.7% of all US cases
We have a major NYC problem that needs to be fixed or there will not be an end in sight for that city.
COVID-19 will continue to spread in NYC until the number of susceptible people falls to 2K per square mile. i.e., until more than 90% of NYC has contracted and recovered from COVID-19.
100k increase in nation-wide cases in the last 3 days. From those numbers you can easily expect there to be 2,750 deaths (likely will be higher than that).
10k new cases in NY in the last 24hrs. Out of those, you can expect at least 400 to die.
12,716 hospitalizations in nyc as of tonight's data reporting.
You will see more than 4k dead (total since the first covid death in nyc) within the next week or so out of NYC.
We have a major NYC problem that needs to be fixed or there will not be an end in sight for that city.
COVID-19 will continue to spread in NYC until the number of susceptible people falls to 2K per square mile. i.e., until more than 90% of NYC has contracted and recovered from COVID-19.
100k increase in nation-wide cases in the last 3 days. From those numbers you can easily expect there to be 2,750 deaths (likely will be higher than that).
10k new cases in NY in the last 24hrs. Out of those, you can expect at least 400 to die.
12,716 hospitalizations in nyc as of tonight's data reporting.
You will see more than 4k dead (total since the first covid death in nyc) within the next week or so out of NYC.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:33 pm to Dawgsontop34
So you’d rather have wrong data and cause a Great Depression? I wouldn’t. Outside of the major cities you could easily have anybody under 45 working with no appreciable increase in number of hospitalizations.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:34 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:This just amazes me.
nyc has 51.7% of all US cases
We really need to stop analyzing it as a national outbreak.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:36 pm to Drizzt
NYC is actually doing worse than what was projected. It screws up the entire projections for the rest of the country. I wished they would take out the NYC data and go with the second highest hot spot and go from there for projections.
The problem with NYC is that you have more discharges than hospitilizations, then boom a major spike in new cases again. That city is fricked. There are too many people living in too tight of a density for this thing to end there until 90 percent of all NYC residents get it and recover or die.
The problem with NYC is that you have more discharges than hospitilizations, then boom a major spike in new cases again. That city is fricked. There are too many people living in too tight of a density for this thing to end there until 90 percent of all NYC residents get it and recover or die.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:39 pm to Drizzt
Why 45? Don’t mean that to sound ugly but why not 55? What are the age breakdowns??
Also for anyone who has a grasp of this — how far behind does death typically lag? Meaning if the time is 10-14 days on a vent (read somewhere on here) before a death typically happens, when can we expect deaths/day to spike?
Also for anyone who has a grasp of this — how far behind does death typically lag? Meaning if the time is 10-14 days on a vent (read somewhere on here) before a death typically happens, when can we expect deaths/day to spike?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 9:44 pm to tiger91
Death spike will happen about 7 days away from the day when we have the most cases confirmed. Once the cases confirmed on a daily basis starts to decline then you will most likely see a peak in death about 7 days later. It all depends on the severity of those that get it.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
This just amazes me.
We really need to stop analyzing it as a national outbreak.
For the most part outside of like a couple of major cities, most places have managed the storm very well. We just need to get NYC on a good path.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:17 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
This just amazes me.
We really need to stop analyzing it as a national outbreak.
Of those tested in New York, 40% (as of today's numbers) come back positive. That's insane! What's the average around everywhere else? 18% or so?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:46 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Yup. We're too big for that. It's going to take some places 6 weeks or more to reach the progression NYC is seeing now. Meanwhile NYC will be recovering at that point.
We really need to stop analyzing it as a national outbreak.
The real downside here... NYC is the media capital. Media will be reporting "it's all over" when it's just peaking in other areas of the country they don't care about.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:55 pm to DMAN1968
So in 2017, the country averaged about 7,700 deaths/day. The last five days we have averaged approximately 1,060 deaths attributed to the virus. Just kind of crazy numbers.
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