re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

quote:

---

If the "days until peak" keeps getting moved, will "leaders" keep moving the end of "stay home" back? The point of doing what we're doing is to NOT reach a peak for resources.

---

It's a statistical model that they re-run periodically with new data as it becomes available. If you live south of Lafayette as your profile indicates, you'll be quite familiar with the periodic updating & changing of modeled hurricane paths over the life of a storm. It's a little like that. The fact that the anticipated peak is delayed is actually good for resource utilization since "later, fatter & flatter" is better for the Louisiana health care system.

quote:

---

think that chart(as is a lot of the data on this)very unreliable. Sunday, it had Mississippi peaking on April 23rd and calling for 768 deaths by August 4. Yesterday, it still had us peaking on 4-23, but deaths by 8-4 jumped to over 2,200 by far more than any southern state.

---

Yeah. It’s prone to wild swings. On Sunday, it had Missouri’s peak at the end of April. Now, two days later, it has our peak at the end of May. There’s not enough data to project anything for states that don’t have probably 100 deaths and several thousand cases. And I’m not sure their model is correct even when it gets more data.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

That's quite a mid-day jump. I still think recoveries are extremely low, but I'm glad we're seeing those start to be regularly reported.

Thank you for the kind words.

Thank you for being on the front lines of this, It makes me feel good that a hospital might be getting some benefit out of my efforts.

The mayor of NYC was expressing concern about running through available stocks of PPE by this weekend if there's not procurement above what's already anticipated.

As far as questions about modeling, I think most states are using data from CDC & NIH, although it seems like even the Feds are going out of house for their models recently. The White House has been using the number from IHME which is associated with the U. of Washington.

Based on the mid-day numbers, today looks like it will be a big day for both new cases and deaths :(

weekend testing is garbage and tuesday-wednesday typically picks up whatever tests the weekend didnt show

quote:

---

I think Monday's reporting will always be off a bit since a lot of private testing centers don't operate over the weekend.

---

Why are these things not operating full capacity 24/7 right now? I don't get how we can keep talking about "weekend numbers." Are they really getting "weekends" off and shutting down or running on skeleton crews on Saturdays and Sundays? You'd think this would be a sort of all hands on deck type deal, and they could pull people from other areas to concentrate on this, no?