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Started By
Message
re: China Is Gearing Up to Invade
Posted on 12/31/23 at 1:45 pm to Ribbed
Posted on 12/31/23 at 1:45 pm to Ribbed
First off, ignore whatever Xi says publicly. The louder he screams the less likely an invasion is to actually happen.
It's really hard to overstate just how difficult and invasion of Taiwan would be. It would make D Day look pretty small scale by comparison. Taiwan has a US and European equipped military that is completely defensive in nature and has spent 70 years preparing. Calling up the Reserves and they have at least a million man army and probably 20x that number who have had at least some military training. Every person born on the island has to serve. So just to start think about what you need to cross 100 miles of ocean with enough numbers to take on a million man army in a defensive position. Ideally you would like 10 to 1 or at least 5 to 1 but realistically if China used every ship they have they would be lucky to land 100k troops. Of course that assumes any of them make it across the water because unlike in WW2 they will know they are coming and be able to shoot at them 100 different ways long before they approach the coast.
Oh and everyone in Taiwan saw what happened in Hong Kong and they know they are hated far more than those folks. Everyone on the island will either be killed, imprisoned, enslaved, or a lucky few will get to be collaborators. Most of those folks are going to fight to the end and they have weapons and training. Have fun with that.
Of course getting to the coast is just the first step. Taiwan is a mountainous island and I can't imagine what they have built there for defense. It makes Iwo Jima look like a stroll in the park.
Then all of this assumes the US and even less likely Japan just sits back and lets this happen. Either the US or Japan could put the entire Chinese Navy at the bottom of the ocean in a couple of days. Both have better ships with better tech and longer range. Think about the Gulf War when the Iraqi tanks came up against US tanks with double their range and tech. We would block all their communications and it would be a turkey shoot, one Super Carrier Group could more than do the trick. Japan has a sub fleet that would rip China to shreds. That's not counting land based missiles of course.
So assume China figures all of that out and takes Taiwan because we let them. Ok, we simply have to blockade them and take them out of the world market. China would run out of energy in weeks and food within months. They are completely dependent on the US keeping the shipping lanes open. They have no ability to project power either as they only have a few ships that can go more than a couple hundred miles from their coast and they have crap technology.
Oh and this "China is being patient" argument doesn't fly. China is in full demographic and financial collapse right now. It looks like India surpassed China in population about a decade ago but they have been covering it up. It's hard to know just how bad the economic situation is but it is certainly terminal and so bad it's really impossible to comprehend it even if we had the real numbers. This is a country that is imploding. They have put what resources they have into surveillance and controlling their populace so the CCP can hold on to power as long as possible.
The only thing we should be doing is selling Taiwan whatever they need to defend themselves and prepare (unlike Ukraine they are happy to buy stuff from us, we don't have to give them anything). Otherwise we should be assuming the China will go offline at any moment and we should remove ourselves from relying on them for anything. That day is coming and soon so we need to continue to go full force in that direction. We also need to continue to boost our Chip manufacturing here which we were doing with the CHIPS Act (one of the few things Biden got right, even though it was poorly written and full of grift). They way you beat China is to disengage from them, we can live without them but they can't live without us.
It's really hard to overstate just how difficult and invasion of Taiwan would be. It would make D Day look pretty small scale by comparison. Taiwan has a US and European equipped military that is completely defensive in nature and has spent 70 years preparing. Calling up the Reserves and they have at least a million man army and probably 20x that number who have had at least some military training. Every person born on the island has to serve. So just to start think about what you need to cross 100 miles of ocean with enough numbers to take on a million man army in a defensive position. Ideally you would like 10 to 1 or at least 5 to 1 but realistically if China used every ship they have they would be lucky to land 100k troops. Of course that assumes any of them make it across the water because unlike in WW2 they will know they are coming and be able to shoot at them 100 different ways long before they approach the coast.
Oh and everyone in Taiwan saw what happened in Hong Kong and they know they are hated far more than those folks. Everyone on the island will either be killed, imprisoned, enslaved, or a lucky few will get to be collaborators. Most of those folks are going to fight to the end and they have weapons and training. Have fun with that.
Of course getting to the coast is just the first step. Taiwan is a mountainous island and I can't imagine what they have built there for defense. It makes Iwo Jima look like a stroll in the park.
Then all of this assumes the US and even less likely Japan just sits back and lets this happen. Either the US or Japan could put the entire Chinese Navy at the bottom of the ocean in a couple of days. Both have better ships with better tech and longer range. Think about the Gulf War when the Iraqi tanks came up against US tanks with double their range and tech. We would block all their communications and it would be a turkey shoot, one Super Carrier Group could more than do the trick. Japan has a sub fleet that would rip China to shreds. That's not counting land based missiles of course.
So assume China figures all of that out and takes Taiwan because we let them. Ok, we simply have to blockade them and take them out of the world market. China would run out of energy in weeks and food within months. They are completely dependent on the US keeping the shipping lanes open. They have no ability to project power either as they only have a few ships that can go more than a couple hundred miles from their coast and they have crap technology.
Oh and this "China is being patient" argument doesn't fly. China is in full demographic and financial collapse right now. It looks like India surpassed China in population about a decade ago but they have been covering it up. It's hard to know just how bad the economic situation is but it is certainly terminal and so bad it's really impossible to comprehend it even if we had the real numbers. This is a country that is imploding. They have put what resources they have into surveillance and controlling their populace so the CCP can hold on to power as long as possible.
The only thing we should be doing is selling Taiwan whatever they need to defend themselves and prepare (unlike Ukraine they are happy to buy stuff from us, we don't have to give them anything). Otherwise we should be assuming the China will go offline at any moment and we should remove ourselves from relying on them for anything. That day is coming and soon so we need to continue to go full force in that direction. We also need to continue to boost our Chip manufacturing here which we were doing with the CHIPS Act (one of the few things Biden got right, even though it was poorly written and full of grift). They way you beat China is to disengage from them, we can live without them but they can't live without us.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 1:51 pm to Ribbed
Most people don’t realize how well trained Taiwan is and how fortified while vastly overestimating how strong China is.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 1:54 pm to Ribbed
I don’t know what they’ve been waiting on. The limp dick US will do nothing.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 2:03 pm to tarzana
quote:
and their Mandarin-speaking brethren won't put up a fight--not one drop of blood spilt.
The people of Taiwan don't speak Mandarin they speak Hokkein.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 2:21 pm to JackieTreehorn
quote:
I don’t know what they’ve been waiting on. The limp dick US will do nothing.
I think the point is that even if the US and Japan did absolutely nothing, not even providing intel to Taiwan or supplies that China has maybe a 10% chance of successfully invading and conquering Taiwan. Maybe. This isn't Ukraine where Russia just had to drive right over to invade against a vastly undersupplied country. Personally I just can't get my head around how you invade a country by sea that has a million man army that is well armed even assuming they don't blow all the ships out of the water on the way over. Have fun with that.
One thing is certain though, if China decides to invade Taiwan it will result in the end of the CCP one way or another eventually. They will have to expend all of their resources and even if they succeed they will be completely cut off from global trade except with Russia by land (which means sending stuff thousands of miles across hostile territory by train that can be taken out 100 different ways). That's the best case scenario.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 2:23 pm to Ribbed
They might, but it will be the end of China if they do.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 4:16 pm to Tantal
One well place cruise missile reduces the population of China by 400 million.
One conventional warhead ….and China knows it. All manufacturing lost.
Don’t have to hit it twice. The three Gorges Dam is an invitation to disaster.
One conventional warhead ….and China knows it. All manufacturing lost.
Don’t have to hit it twice. The three Gorges Dam is an invitation to disaster.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:17 pm to Ribbed
Xi knows that Trump is gonna win the presidency and would probably be able to talk him out of war. So he’s striking now while President Doofus is out to lunch.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:22 pm to aggressor
quote:
Oh and this "China is being patient" argument doesn't fly. China is in full demographic and financial collapse right now
Upvoted your post because I agree but take issue with the above. Eventually China WILL merge with Taiwan. It will just happen in a post Communist world. Think 100 years from now.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:26 pm to Ribbed
And we will send billions and billions of dollars to Taiwan.
We are constantly hurting ourselves for places that 99.999% of Americans will never visit. Gotta have that external conflict to justify unfettered and unaccountable funds being shipped out..
We are constantly hurting ourselves for places that 99.999% of Americans will never visit. Gotta have that external conflict to justify unfettered and unaccountable funds being shipped out..
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:27 pm to Gray Tiger
Every Taiwanese I ever knew spoke fluent Mandarin. Even though they chat in Hokkein at home they certainly know Mandarin, the official language of both PRC and the ROC
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:34 pm to Ribbed
yjhk
This post was edited on 1/1/24 at 6:21 pm
Posted on 12/31/23 at 6:37 pm to tarzana
Invasion has been cancelled the purge has began
quote:
BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.
China's top lawmakers ousted nine senior military officers from the national legislative body on Friday, state media reported, a step that typically precedes further punishment for wayward cadres. Many of these were from the Rocket Force - a key arm of the PLA overseeing tactical and nuclear missiles.
quote:
"Before realising how rampant corruption was, he drank his Kool-Aid and thought the military can really 'fight and win battles' as expected by him," said Chen, who is now a political commentator based in Chile.
"But how can the generals' hearts be in fighting, if they are just busy lining their own pockets? Xi now knows that their proclamations of loyalty to the party and to the military ring hollow. I imagine this would zap his confidence somewhat."
Posted on 12/31/23 at 7:21 pm to LSUSkip
quote:
but for the future of the planet, it might be the best thing.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 7:25 pm to TigerintheNO
Good. Our real enemy are those stealthy little Moops.
Swarthy bastards.
Swarthy bastards.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 7:37 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
Eventually China WILL merge with Taiwan. It will just happen in a post Communist world. Think 100 years from now.
China won't be the same unified country in 20 years. It's always been fractured and it's taken unparalleled growth and coercion by Beijing to keep it together. Once the demographic and financial collapses get bad enough, China will fracture again. The central and southern coast will be begging to integrate with Taiwan on Taiwan's terms, not Beijing's.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 8:09 pm to Ribbed
there's nothing the US can do to stop china from taking taiwan.
it would be a mistake to get involved.
it would be a mistake to get involved.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 8:14 pm to tarzana
It was never possessed by the current Chinese government (CCP). Unless they are willing to reving the emporership or have the ROC take power there is no" possession"
And they will not just be able to walk right in. Taiwan is not full of beaches to land on, and the beaches that are available are small. People in Taiwan also speak both Taiwanese and Mandarin.
And they will not just be able to walk right in. Taiwan is not full of beaches to land on, and the beaches that are available are small. People in Taiwan also speak both Taiwanese and Mandarin.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 8:29 pm to aggressor
I agree with a lot of your points. One thing that China has done recently is destroy non-essential crops produced by farmers. They mandate now is grain and rice. Personally, I believe it will be a drone war to start. There are currently US Marines training specialized military here.
The ground army is a joke. Their training is terrible which consists of sweeping floors, washing windows (no I'm not making fun of karate kid) and they literally fire 4-10 bullets throughout the 4months to a year of mandatory service.
China anding a ground assault will be very hard as beach heads are small and shorelines are already packed with anti landing structures. They are also currently lining river ways.
Unfortunately I don't think the chips act will help in getting an advanced chip manufacturer into the UA. At least not from TSMC. The worker demand needed and pay is something that is hard to hire. I have friends who work there telling me this why it won't work. Americans aren't simply willing to work for 12 hours with mediocre pay. It would have to be subsidized by the US government which could happen to meet worker pay demands.
The ground army is a joke. Their training is terrible which consists of sweeping floors, washing windows (no I'm not making fun of karate kid) and they literally fire 4-10 bullets throughout the 4months to a year of mandatory service.
China anding a ground assault will be very hard as beach heads are small and shorelines are already packed with anti landing structures. They are also currently lining river ways.
Unfortunately I don't think the chips act will help in getting an advanced chip manufacturer into the UA. At least not from TSMC. The worker demand needed and pay is something that is hard to hire. I have friends who work there telling me this why it won't work. Americans aren't simply willing to work for 12 hours with mediocre pay. It would have to be subsidized by the US government which could happen to meet worker pay demands.
Posted on 12/31/23 at 8:32 pm to Ribbed
2024 is gonna be a wild arse year
You can see this coming from miles away
You can see this coming from miles away
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