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re: Boots on the ground look likely but not an invasion

Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:21 pm to
Posted by VOR
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2009
68817 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:21 pm to
It’s not unreasonable to expect the Administration to have some sort of reasonable, workable plan, is it?
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23304 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:21 pm to
So is it your guess that they knew they’d need boots on the ground to achieve their end game or do you think they thought this would be another Venezuela?

My position is that if their required outcome is a pro US regime if they didn’t have a firm agreement with the IRGC they should’ve never gone in because a full ground war with a mobilized IRGC is far beyond whatever the ROI will/would be for a successful war where China is guaranteed to supply them with arms.
Posted by BOHICAMAN
Member since Feb 2026
1159 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:30 pm to
quote:

GWOT really fricked up a lot of people's idea of how these units are normally used.
Well I was replying to the guy who said it would be a mistake to deploy the 82nd or Rangers. I’m aware of the missions and capabilities of both units.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
836 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:33 pm to
quote:

So is it your guess that they knew they’d need boots on the ground to achieve their end game or do you think they thought this would be another Venezuela? My position is that if their required outcome is a pro US regime if they didn’t have a firm agreement with the IRGC they should’ve never gone in because a full ground war with a mobilized IRGC is far beyond whatever the ROI will/would be for a successful war where China is guaranteed to supply them with arms.

I’ve got zero clue how they expected this to play out in their war-games simulation. I’m honestly surprised the Israelis didn’t have a more concrete plan.

The Trump administration had to know that putting boots on the ground would be political suicide in an election year and that disruptions to oil markets would push inflation up in a measurable way.

So what exactly was the endgame? It’s hard to believe the plan was simply to eliminate a handful of high-profile political and military leaders and assume an unarmed Iranian population would somehow overthrow a million+ person military and finish the job. Are they now sending in the 82nd to fail so they can escalate this into a full blown war - I sure hope not. If the administration just cuts bait and runs at this point, China will essentially economically colonize it - which will have massive long term implications in the geopolitical landscape.
This post was edited on 3/6/26 at 8:41 pm
Posted by Sharlo
Van down by the river.
Member since Oct 2021
1622 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:38 pm to
10/10 we already have a small contingent of special ops people on the ground. The trick is to keep it that way and then tip-toe out of that mess before the sectarian conflicts start.
Posted by tigerlion
Member since Jul 2009
2319 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:39 pm to
quote:

Why can’t the Israeli’s do it?


Right. The IDF soldiers are the ones walking around with a patch of the Third Temple on their shoulders. They want this so badly and need to leave our young guys out of it.
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38338 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

Well I was replying to the guy who said it would be a mistake to deploy the 82nd or Rangers. I’m aware of the missions and capabilities of both units.
Ok, well I guess was a bit confused when you said the 82nd and Rangers "exist" to back up SOF, which is a silly thing to say, especially when both formations predate SOF by decades. If anything, it's the other way around. A SOF team has far less war fighting capability than even a standard 'leg' line infantry platoon.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
65791 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:44 pm to
At some point someone is going to have to go in and help with debris cleanup.
Posted by BOHICAMAN
Member since Feb 2026
1159 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:47 pm to
I suppose I worded that wrong. But if I had to guess in this operation the rangers will mostly be support/QRF for other SOF forces and the 82nd will secure some operating bases in key areas. I can’t imagine any kind of low level static line mass jumps for airfield seizure and the like because of the threat of MANPADS. If they do jump it’ll be in at least semi friendly territory controlled by friendly Kurdish forces or out in the middle of nowhere and just walk to the target.
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
23304 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:53 pm to
I think we’re pretty aligned on this.

I get it for Israel, they’re fine with chaos and I don’t think they believe China will come in, or at least that the US would go all in if that occurred.

I just don’t understand what the hell we thought we thought we were doing.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
836 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:56 pm to
Israel doesn’t really care if China comes in. They have a good relationship with them and have bigger concerns to worry about.

A basic war games analysis of this makes so little sense and that’s with the war starting out really really well for the the US & Israel having tremendous success eliminating senior Iranian officials
This post was edited on 3/6/26 at 8:59 pm
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38338 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

I can’t imagine any kind of low level static line mass jumps for airfield seizure and the like because of the threat of MANPADS.
The 82nd’s parachute assault capability today is a lot like the Marine Corps’ large-scale amphibious assault mission. It’s a core identity and they absolutely maintain the capability, but it’s rarely the actual reason those forces are selected for an operation.

In practice the 82nd is chosen because it’s a high-readiness light infantry division that can project significant combat force anywhere in the world on short notice. Airborne is just one of the tools in the kit these days.

The same applies to the Marines. Amphibious forcible entry is doctrinally central and they train for it constantly, but most modern Marine deployments are expeditionary, forward presence, and rapid conventional force projection rather than storming defended beaches.

Those capabilities exist because if the day ever comes that you actually need them, there’s no substitute. But day-to-day they function primarily as rapid-response expeditionary forces, not because we expect to conduct parachute assaults or opposed amphibious landings every time they’re used.
Posted by Bronco11
Member since Jul 2022
983 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:00 pm to
Of course. Why on earth would they tell you, me, and especially the American press what the plan is? There's Democrats in the house that are probably cheering the regime. Many in the press are less than enthusiastic about the success thus far.

You can scream no plan! All day. Doesn't make it so. In fact, the opening bombing campaign indicates they've planned this for a long while. Foolish to assume they don't have endings phases accounted for.
Posted by prouddawg
Member since Sep 2024
9146 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:02 pm to
Posted by beaux duke
Member since Oct 2023
4911 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

You can scream no plan! All day. Doesn't make it so. In fact, the opening bombing campaign indicates they've planned this for a long while. Foolish to assume they don't have endings phases accounted for.

trump doesn't have a plan
same as it ever was
Posted by BOHICAMAN
Member since Feb 2026
1159 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:05 pm to
quote:

The 82nd’s parachute assault capability today is a lot like the Marine Corps’ large-scale amphibious assault mission. It’s a core identity and they absolutely maintain the capability, but it’s rarely the actual reason those forces are selected for an operation. In practice the 82nd is chosen because it’s a high-readiness light infantry division that can project significant combat force anywhere in the world on short notice. Airborne is just one of the tools in the kit these days. The same applies to the Marines. Amphibious forcible entry is doctrinally central and they train for it constantly, but most modern Marine deployments are expeditionary, forward presence, and rapid conventional force projection rather than storming defended beaches. Those capabilities exist because if the day ever comes that you actually need them, there’s no substitute. But day-to-day they function primarily as rapid-response expeditionary forces, not because we expect to conduct parachute assaults or opposed amphibious landings every time they’re used.


I agree with everything you said.

Although I think the Marines should shift their focus away from light infantry as its core mission. But that’s a whole other discussion.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
836 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:05 pm to
Israel planed the bombing captain for a long while. I’m beginning to think Bibi goaded Trump into this thing because his thought was that the US would eventually commit troops knowing Trump is not one to back down and our country’s leadership cannot pass up on nation building - we never learn our lesson. Threatening to continue to kill Iranian leadership until one comes to power that you like is not a plan.
This post was edited on 3/6/26 at 9:07 pm
Posted by northshorebamaman
Mackinac Island
Member since Jul 2009
38338 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:08 pm to
quote:

Although I think the Marines should shift their focus away from light infantry
I'd go much further than that, but yeah, different discussion.
Posted by AlterEd
Cydonia, Mars
Member since Dec 2024
11834 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:13 pm to
Trump literally campaigned on "bombing the shite" out of terrorists in the middle east and has been advocating for military intervention in Iran since 1980. Israel didn't "goad" him into anything here. Like everything else he does this was planned out long in advance.
Posted by IMSA_Fan
Member since Jul 2024
836 posts
Posted on 3/6/26 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

Trump literally campaigned on "bombing the shite" out of terrorists in the middle east and has been advocating for military intervention in Iran since 1980. Israel didn't "goad" him into anything here. Like everything else he does this was planned out long in advance.

He also signed the Doha Agreement, handing control of Afghanistan over to the Taliban, in an attempt to end the cycle of nation building and never-ending wars in the Middle East as a cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda that he ran on in 2020.
This post was edited on 3/6/26 at 9:17 pm
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