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Started By
Message
Actual pre-election data instead of opinion polls.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:14 am
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:14 am
I don't know how much stock to put into tracking ballot requests like this, but it apparently has been predictive in many past elections. Interesting perspective:
Larry Schweikart - Twitter
Larry Schweikart - Twitter
13
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:19 am to alpinetiger
Congrats Larry, no one gives a shite what you do and despite what you think of yourself, you're not that important.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:20 am to alpinetiger
quote:
31) I have asked a historical genius on this kind of data, "Can you think of ANY time in American electoral history where one party gained four to six senate seats and lost the House." None
Seems very plausible we could lose the house due to quality candidates. If GOP is up from 2016 numbers, things are looking good nationwide
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:20 am to alpinetiger
quote:
Larry Schweikart - Twitter
THIS ^^^^^^^ is good info.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:21 am to alpinetiger
Cliffs? At work, twitter is blocked.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:23 am to alpinetiger
His methodology is sound.
Republicans STACKED
DemoKKKrats frickED
Republicans STACKED
DemoKKKrats frickED
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:24 am to ALTiger
quote:
Cliffs? At work, twitter is blocked.
Despite being midterms and not a presidential election, GOP ballot requests are exceeding 2016 numbers in a lot of places.
Dem ballot numbers are below 2016 and below 2014 midterms.
Unprecedented for the most part.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:25 am to Wtodd
quote:
Congrats Larry, no one gives a shite what you do and despite what you think of yourself, you're not that important.
This doesn't sound like you. The guy made a compelling argument for the Rs. Probably the best I've seen so far.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:27 am to alpinetiger
This certainly gives me that Pre-November 2016 feeling.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:32 am to SidewalkDawg
Repubs coming in stronger than 2016 makes sense when you think about how many conservative votes either did not vote or voted third party or even Dem rather than the unknown Trump.
Now that he has a track record more inline with what traditional Repub voters wish for, the Repubs should get a push in the midterms.
Now that he has a track record more inline with what traditional Repub voters wish for, the Repubs should get a push in the midterms.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:34 am to ALTiger
quote:Early voting numbers are up for Reps, down for Dems across the board. Reps are over performing 2016 numbers which is not suppose to happen
Cliffs? At work, twitter is blocked.
Dems bout to lose ground in Senate and whiff on house
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:38 am to alpinetiger
throwing bricks thru plate glass, and vandalizing cars is more fun than voting
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:41 am to AuburnTigers
quote:
Early voting numbers are up for Reps, down for Dems across the board. Reps are over performing 2016 numbers which is not suppose to happen
Dems bout to lose ground in Senate and whiff on house
And indies have surprisingly low interest.
This kind of data correctly correlated with the mild Trump upsets in FL and NC and with Crooked Hillary holding serve in NV last cycle.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:46 am to AuburnTigers
quote:
Dems bout to lose ground in Senate and whiff on house
It does make theoretical sense that if a senate seat is picked up in a state, then also should a rep's seat be picked up if a dem currently holds that seat.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:50 am to ScottFowler
quote:
Repubs coming in stronger than 2016 makes sense when you think about how many conservative votes either did not vote or voted third party or even Dem rather than the unknown Trump.
Now that he has a track record more inline with what traditional Repub voters wish for, the Repubs should get a push in the midterms.
This could very well be true. We have to remember, a lot of Republicans were scared of the "unknown" in Trump. 2 years later he hasn't destroyed the world (as Dems have been predicting on a daily basis). Plus, Dems haven't changed their message AT ALL since 2016. Their only message remains "we hate Donald Trump".
Now, to be fair, Trump is not running in 2018. But, the Democrats are running "against him" in the midterms. I can't imagine many people that voted FOR Trump are changing their votes. But I do think there is a % (don't know how big) of people who either voted against him or just didn't vote who are changing their opinions. And the Kavanaugh hearing was a 3 week soap opera of just how crazy Democrats are.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:51 am to AuburnTigers
Dems have not had a great track record of turning out for midterms.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:51 am to SirWinston
Cliffs:
More Republicans returned absentee ballots than Dems, right in the heat of the Kav bullshite....hence, Dems are playing catch up with the clock running out.
More Republicans returned absentee ballots than Dems, right in the heat of the Kav bullshite....hence, Dems are playing catch up with the clock running out.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:52 am to alpinetiger
quote:I don’t think it’s very accurate at all actually, although it may be more useful as it becomes easier to track and monitor, compare to previous election data, and control for any sampling biases.
I don't know how much stock to put into tracking ballot requests like this, but it apparently has been predictive in many past elections. Interesting perspective:
The other is that party registration is not as correlated with party identification as one might suspect, plus the temporal, candidate, and issue specific preferences that might impact the results.
For example, I believe Louisiana has more registered Ds than Rs, but it’s far redder than other states that have more Rs than Ds.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:55 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
This doesn't sound like you
Under normal circumstances you'd be right.
quote:
The guy made a compelling argument for the Rs
I've been consistent saying the Reps will gain seats in both houses but this guy is a self-absorbed shithead.
Posted on 10/18/18 at 8:59 am to Jake88
quote:In general though, factors that contribute to turnout tends to benefit the minority party in midterms than it otherwise would.
Dems have not had a great track record of turning out for midterms.
It does provide a nice balance in many ways, since gridlock is one major roadblock to government meddling, which is too prevalent in both parties.
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