A post-mortem of last night

1. Iran. This was easily the biggest driver last night. Exit polls had 60% saying Iran was the wrong call, and 74% called it a major factor in their vote. Messy, seat-of-the-pants handling of the war plus a public being fed contradictory talking points (Iran was close to a nuke, but also we wiped everything out a year ago, and if you doubt either one you're "fake news") is a recipe for getting crushed.

2. Affordability. This goes hand in hand with #1. Fuel prices are up, tariffs haven't helped, spending is out of control, and the people feeling it are told either that it's temporary and good for them long term, or worse, that their struggles are imaginary. Republicans fell into the same trap Biden did: insisting the economy is great and telling people not to believe their own eyes when they're hurting. Hits like "I don't want to drive housing prices down, I want to drive housing prices up" will get you slaughtered.

3. "Love the policy, hate the execution." This ties into a general sense of incompetence around Trump 2.0. People want border security. They want election security. They don't want their daughters competing against men. They're not even against nice shiny upgrades to public facilities. What they don't want is all of it done in a ham-fisted way. From the ICE raids to the reflecting pool renovation to election reform, everything feels like it was handed to the lowest bidder, and the chaos around it amplified that feeling. Look at North Carolina. They voted 60-40 in favor of voter ID and lower taxes, but also 60-40 for the Democratic candidate. In Les Miles' words "the want" is there, we just need the right personnel.

Last night was a rejection of ineptitude, whether real or perceived. The "well, what are the Dems going to do about it?" response misses the point. When things feel bad, you don't always need a fleshed-out plan to win people over. Enough voters were willing to give the other side a shot because they felt unheard. Meanwhile, the most ardent MAGA supporters wouldn't entertain any criticism and just threw out catchphrases like "TDS" or "panican!"

I posted this over a year ago, after the '25 special elections, and was proven right last night:

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This is what I'm trying to get across to people after last night. Yeah it may not be a bellwether for anything on its own, but the fact that MAGA/AF is predicated on 1. Having Trump on the ballot 2. Requiring high/motivated turnout due to its populist nature, is a bad combination for midterms and 2028. Combine that with the fact that the administration's actions lately have been very much focused on "we're doing what we want, it's going to hurt, you'll get over it," you're running the risk of the winds shifting very quickly out of your sails. MAGA is currently walking a very thin tightrope of high risk, high reward politics and it only takes one misstep to have that tide turn on you.

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