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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 12/6/17 at 11:58 am to TDsngumbo
Doubt it, I’ve seen some meteorologists from MI nail hurricane predictions
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:02 pm to fatboydave
WWL Weather
quote:
Some models also have available moisture to perhaps develop some wintry weather. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, but there are solutions where snow develops on both sides of the Lake into Friday morning
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:07 pm to Loungefly85
quote:
I don't believe it. I won't believe it. But damn it, I want to believe it.
With the Euro showing some snow fall, the NAM (getting into it's range) showing snow falling, and the Canadians consistent with it, I do believe we will see snowflakes around here at some point early Friday.
The ground will be too warm for it to really accumilate unless it gets falling pretty hard for a couple of hours.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:11 pm to beerJeep
I hear ya but I really hope it snows its arse off for my kids sake! 
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:13 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
I hear ya but I really hope it snows its arse off for my kids sake!
I wish I was back home in NOLA if it does somehow snow on the southshore
would love to see my 3yo nephew's reaction to seeing snow for the 1st time
my sister better take video and send it to me
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:20 pm to rt3
If it does snow, this will be the earliest snowfall on record in the area. I think the Dec 11th or 12th snowfall back in 2008 was the previous record.
And, we could have a snowfall earlier than we have our first freeze of the season.
And, we could have a snowfall earlier than we have our first freeze of the season.
This post was edited on 12/6/17 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:20 pm to OldSouth
quote:
I'll be shocked if there's school on the northshore Friday
What makes you say that. We had snow on the ground last time and still reported. St. Tammany is well known for waiting until the last second to cancel...if they actually do cancel.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:21 pm to jimmy the leg
Latest euro
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:22 pm to jimmy the leg
quote:
last second to cancel...if they actually do cancel.
Oh, they'll cancel school.
An hour after your kids get there.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:24 pm to jimmy the leg
quote:
What makes you say that. We had snow on the ground last time and still reported. St. Tammany is well known for waiting until the last second to cancel...if they actually do cancel.
In '08? I'm pretty sure they cancelled it that morning.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:25 pm to jimmy the leg
I'm saying Tangi cancels at 10:00 pm thursday night
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:25 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Latest euro
Look at that lake effect snow in Lake Charles and on the Northshore.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
Why such a larger amount in tangipahoa compared with other parishes?
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:30 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Why such a larger amount in tangipahoa compared with other parishes?
The moisture and the low temps will both be present where as in the other areas, either the rain has moved out or the colder temps haven't arrived yet. It's just the sweet spot this time.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:35 pm to slackster
quote:
Look at that lake effect snow in Lake Charles and on the Northshore
Haven't look at the models but that would be odd, because it would be resulting from a southernly flow off the lake. Which is about the opposite of how it normally works. Cold arse dry air blows over a non frozen lake, picks up the moisture and then gets a little lift from the land and boom. Feet.
That being said, while not being true lake effect, pull off the lake into a pool of cold drish air could get the wet bulb going strong I'd imagine.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:36 pm to jimmy the leg
quote:
What makes you say that. We had snow on the ground last time and still reported. St. Tammany is well known for waiting until the last second to cancel...if they actually do cancel.
They have been really gun shy the last few years. I would bet Wikis bitcoins that St Tammany sends out a call tomorrow afternoon/night that school is cancelled for Friday.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 12:57 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Comparing latest 12z models to previous runs:
Latest Canadian went from 4" to 3" in BR
Latest Euro went from 0.5" to 2" in BR
Latest NAM went from 1" to 2" in BR
Latest GFS went from 0" to about 0.2" in BR
This post was edited on 12/6/17 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 12/6/17 at 1:01 pm to OldSouth
quote:
In '08? I'm pretty sure they cancelled it that morning.
I know LSU wasn't cancelled, b/c I had a final that day, and I didn't go, well I couldn't go b/c you couldn't drive anywhere.
Posted on 12/6/17 at 1:02 pm to RidiculousHype
All major models on board, even though the GFS is extremely light on amount it shows precip and is the outlier. Cancel school!!
And an important thing to remember is that with 10:1 ratios (on average) you can have big swings in snowfall amounts. If a model underestimates precip by .2 then that is an extra 2 inches of snow. Models rarely nail the liquid precip exactly. I notice the models coming into agreement on amount and would feel safe betting 1-3 of snow IF it falls as snow and falls fast/hard enough to stick. One problem down here is that if the surface is above freezing then you could waste a good amount of the snow at the beginning as it melts, by the time it starts to actually stick the precip is ending.
And an important thing to remember is that with 10:1 ratios (on average) you can have big swings in snowfall amounts. If a model underestimates precip by .2 then that is an extra 2 inches of snow. Models rarely nail the liquid precip exactly. I notice the models coming into agreement on amount and would feel safe betting 1-3 of snow IF it falls as snow and falls fast/hard enough to stick. One problem down here is that if the surface is above freezing then you could waste a good amount of the snow at the beginning as it melts, by the time it starts to actually stick the precip is ending.
This post was edited on 12/6/17 at 1:06 pm
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